中国经济增长放缓 消费热点在哪里

 　　As anyone who reads these pages knows, China’s growth has slowed and its economy is, little by little, rebalancing away from investment and towards consumption.

　　看过相关报道的人都知道，中国经济增长放缓，并且正在缓慢地进行再平衡——从依靠投资转向依靠消费拉动经济增长。
　　Yet many are also left scratching their heads by news that sales of a wide range of consumer products, from luxury cars to cheap local beer, are so sluggish 1.
　　然而许多人也对种类繁多的消费品销售疲弱——从豪车到国产廉价啤酒——的新闻摸不着头脑。
　　If consumption is so strong, why can’t we see it? The answer is simple: people are looking in the wrong places.
　　如果消费非常强劲，我们为何看不到？答案很简单：人们找错了地方。
　　Both high-end and low-end retail 2 are faring poorly.
　　高、低端零售都表现不佳。
　　But look at the middle tier, and the story could scarcely be more different.
　　但看看中端销售，故事可能截然不同。
　　This is where the consumption boom is unfolding.
　　这正是消费热潮正在上演的地方。
　　Start with the luxury segment.
　　先从奢侈品领域说起。
　　Its best days could well be over.
　　奢侈品的黄金时期很可能已经结束。
　　Luxury consumption is slowing, weighed down by a decelerating economy, the ongoing 3 crackdown on corruption 4 and the ‘commodification’ of luxury goods — that is, the idea that Chinese buyers no longer see them as so special or unique.
　　受经济放缓、反腐运动持续开展和奢侈品“大众商品化”的影响，奢侈品消费正在放缓——奢侈品“大众商品化”是指中国买家不再认为奢侈品非常特殊或独特。
　　China’s luxury spending contracted for the very first time in 2014.
　　中国奢侈品支出在2014年首次出现萎缩。
　　This was just the tipping point.
　　这只是拐点。
　　In 2015, Swiss watch exports to Hong Kong, a bellwether 5 of Chinese luxury buying, fell 23 per cent.
　　2015年，瑞士手表对香港出口——中国人购买奢侈品情况的晴雨表——下降23%。
　　The sales of Rolls-Royce cars tumbled 54 per cent in China that same year.
　　同一年，劳斯莱斯汽车在华销售暴跌54%。
　　And it was not just hard for foreign brands.
　　不只是外国品牌处境艰难。
　　China is unlikely to be able to produce successful local luxury brands in the foreseeable future.
　　在可预见的未来，中国不太可能创造出成功的本土奢侈品品牌。
　　Chinese consumers themselves simply do not associate made-in-China with luxury.
　　中国消费者自己不会将“中国制造”与奢侈品联系在一起。
　　This inertia 6 of perception was foretold 7 by the US experience.
　　美国的经历揭示了这种思维惯性。
　　Despite being the world’s most powerful economy, the US has largely failed to produce top luxury brands such as Hermes or Cartier in Europe.
　　尽管是全球实力最强的经济体，但美国基本上没有创造出像欧洲爱马仕(Hermes)或卡地亚(Cartier)那样的顶级奢侈品牌。
　　Instead, it is affordable 8 luxury brands such as Coach and Tiffany’s that have gained traction 9 in the US.
　　实际上，蔻驰(Coach)和蒂芙尼(Tiffany)等让普通人负担得起的奢侈品品牌在美国很受欢迎。
　　At the low end of the market, the drivers are different but the outlook is equally bleak 10.
　　在低端市场，诱因有所不同，但前景同样黯淡。
　　The race-to-the-bottom approach of cheap Chinese brands, a winning formula in the past, has run its course.
　　中国廉价品牌过去屡试不爽的“竞相降价”策略已经不灵了。
　　Rising income levels have led consumers to focus more on questions of quality and health, for which they are now able and willing to pay.
　　收入水平不断增长促使消费者更加注重品质和健康，他们现在有能力而且也愿意为此付费。
　　As a result, fast-moving consumer goods companies targeting blue-collar consumers are losing out.
　　面向蓝领消费者的快速消费品公司因此经营惨淡。
　　Sales volumes of instant noodles and beer (which is often cheaper than mineral water in China) fell 12.5 per cent and 3.6 per cent last year, respectively.
　　去年方便面和啤酒销量分别下降12.5%和3.6%——啤酒在中国往往比矿泉水还便宜。
　　The ecommerce space is also experiencing a tectonic shift, from consumer-to-consumer platforms for cheap unbranded goods to business-to-consumer alternatives for branded quality products.
　　电子商务领域也在经历“结构性”变化，人们从在消费者对消费者(C2C)平台购买廉价的无品牌商品，转向在企业对消费者(B2C)平台购买优质品牌产品。
　　Transaction volumes on the latter rose from 25 per cent of the total ecommerce market in 2011 to 51 per cent in 2015.
　　后者交易额占整个电商市场的份额从2011年的25%，升至2015年的51%。
　　Amid all this upheaval 11 at the high and low end of the market, the sweet spot is right in the middle.
　　在高低端市场的这种风云变幻当中，中档产品市场如鱼得水。
　　This value-for-money segment, which strives to balance quality and price, is already the fastest-growing consumer segment in China.
　　此类努力在质量和价格之间取得平衡、让人们感觉物有所值的商品已经成为中国增长最为快速的消费领域。
　　As China’s middle class expands (McKinsey predicts it will increase from 174m households in 2012 to 271m by 2022), this middle retail segment will grow in lockstep with it.
　　随着中国中产阶级数量扩大——麦肯锡(McKinsey)预计到2022年，中国中产阶级数量将从2012年的1.74亿家庭增长至2.71亿家庭——这种中档零售部门将同步增长。
　　Consider a few examples of the consumer brands already profiting handsomely from this trend.
　　想想已经显著受益于这种趋势的几个消费品牌吧。
　　Korean cosmetics 12 brands with their “cheap chic”, offering design and marketing 13 similar to European high-end brands but with affordable prices and more of an Asian style, are immensely popular in China, particularly among the younger generation.
　　韩国化妆品品牌带来了“廉价时尚”，它们采用与欧洲高端品牌类似的设计和营销，但价格更为亲民，而且更具亚洲风格，从而在中国大受欢迎，尤其是在较年轻一代人当中。
　　The front runner is Amorepacific, which owns brands including Innisfree, Laneige and Etude.
　　领跑者是旗下拥有悦诗风吟(Innisfree)、兰芝(Laneige)和伊蒂之屋(Etude)等品牌的爱茉莉太平洋(AmorePacific)。
　　It has quadrupled its stock price since 2014 on the back of strong China sales.
　　在中国市场销售强劲的支持下，爱茉莉太平洋的股价自2014年以来上涨了3倍。
　　Global fast fashion houses are also having a big run.
　　全球快时尚公司也在高歌猛进。
　　Uniqlo, the Japanese clothing company, delivered a gob-smacking 62 per cent annualised sales growth in China from 2013 to 2015.
　　从2013年至2015年，日本服装公司优衣库(Uniqlo)在中国市场的年化销售增长率达到令人咋舌的62%。
　　Decathlon, a French sports supplies retailer 14, grew its store network in China from 55 in 2012 to 166 in 2015, capitalising on the value-for-money trend.
　　法国体育用品零售商迪卡侬(Decathlon)利用这种注重性价比的消费趋势，将中国门店数量从2012年的55家增至2015年的166家。
　　China’s local brands are also charging ahead.
　　中国国内品牌也发展神速。
　　Green Tea and Granma’s Home, both with their roots in the city of Hangzhou, operate chain restaurants across China and have tripled their locations in three years.
　　总部均位于杭州的绿茶(Green Tea)和外婆家(Granma’s Home)在全国各地开设连锁餐厅，门店数量在3年时间里增长了两倍。
　　They offer trendy casual dining experiences in central locations, coupled with seemingly unprofitable pricing for the dishes.
　　它们在市中心地段提供时尚休闲的就餐体验，以及似乎无利可图的餐品价格。
　　Their secret is volume, attracting customers who are willing to come at off-peak hours or wait in line, sometimes for up to an hour.
　　它们的秘诀在于规模，吸引愿意在非高峰时段或者排队等候（有时长达一个小时）就餐的消费者。
　　This translates into more sittings: they can achieve 6-8 table turns per day, roughly twice that of their peers.
　　这带来了较高的入座率：两家餐厅每天可以达到6至8次的翻台率，几乎是同行的两倍。
　　Another successful case is Miniso, a high-quality dollar store chain that has been dubbed 15 the “poor man’s Muji” (a premium 16 Japanese equivalent).
　　另一个成功的例子是被称为“穷人的无印良品”的高品质低价连锁店——名创优品(Miniso)。
　　Their retail pricing is only twice their costs, compared with the industry norm of three-times.
　　该公司的零售定价只是成本的两倍，而行业标准是3倍。
　　Coupled with a carefully curated product portfolio 17 in a modern store format 18, it became an instant hit.
　　再加上现代化店铺模式里的精心设计的产品组合，名创优品很快风靡一时。
　　Within two years of its inception 19, Miniso has opened more than 1,000 stores and made Rmb5bn ($750m) of annual sales.
　　在成立以来的两年时间里，名创优品开了1000多家门店，年收入达到50亿元人民币（合7.5亿美元）。
　　Flashy Swiss watches are losing their grip on wealthy Chinese wrists.
　　奢华的瑞士手表正逐渐失去对中国富人的强烈吸引力。
　　And ordinary Chinese are losing their taste for instant noodles.
　　中国普通民众开始对方便面失去胃口。
　　Consumption is instead converging 20 on the middle, in terms of both product preference and customer base.
　　不管是从产品偏好还是从客户基础来说，消费都在向中端（中档产品、中产阶层）集中。
　　This is a good thing for the economy, a reflection of a more balanced growth model and a more equal distribution of wealth.
　　这对中国经济是好事，反映出增长模式更加平衡、财富分配更加平等。
　　For consumer brands, both international and local, the challenge is to win the hearts of China’s rising middle class.
　　对国内外的消费品牌来说，挑战在于如何赢得中国日益崛起的中产阶级的心。
　　They are educated and well informed, and they want to spend money on quality products, so long as the price is fair.
　　他们受过良好教育而且见多识广，他们希望购买优质产品，只要价格合理。