iPhone辉煌时代结束了吗

Investors 1 in Apple had already been braced 2 this year for a sharp, one-quarter decline that would bring the first fall in sales for the iPhone.

苹果(Apple)投资者今年原本已准备好迎接一个季度的iPhone销量严重滑坡，这一滑坡将导致iPhone季度销量首次出现同比下滑。

Now, though, they will have to get used to the idea that the severe slump 3 will go on for at least two quarters. And the longer Apple struggles to revive the fortunes of its dominant 4 product, the greater the concerns that the iPhone’s glorious days of growth are behind it.

然而，现在他们必须接受这一前景：这种严重滑坡将至少持续两个季度。苹果难以重振其主打产品iPhone的时间越长，人们就越担心iPhone销量增长的辉煌时代已成过去。

The depths of the trough in Apple’s core smartphone business became clear on Tuesday, as the company reported weaker results than expected for the first quarter of this year and issued a downbeat forecast for the second.

周二，苹果公布了业绩逊于预期的今年第一季度财报，并对第二季度业绩发出悲观预测，表明了该公司的核心智能手机业务有多低迷。

Rather than a steady recovery starting in the current quarter, iPhone unit sales could now be on track for an even bigger decline than in the first three months, when they fell 16 per cent year-on-year. The news sent Apple shares down more than 5 per cent by yesterday afternoon.

iPhone销量不仅不会从当前季度开始稳步回升，反而有可能遭遇比今年第一季度更严重的滑坡——今年第一季度iPhone销量同比下滑16%。这一消息导致苹果股价周三收跌6.3%。

It did not matter that Apple executives insisted that the weakness in the forecast was partly the result of a $2bn inventory 5 adjustment that will mask the likely strength of consumer demand. At only $41bn-$43bn, Apple’s revenue forecast for the quarter ending in June was far enough below Wall Street’s expectations of $47bn to slice 8 per cent from the company’s stock price in after-market trading.

苹果高管坚称，对第二季度业绩的悲观预测在一定程度上是因为20亿美元的库存调整，这一调整将掩盖消费需求可能的强劲表现。这一解释于事无补。苹果预测的第二季度营收仅为410亿美元至430亿美元，与华尔街预期的470亿美元存在巨大差距，使该公司股价在周二盘后交易时段下挫8%。

The figures underlined what was already apparent: Apple is living in the shadow of its past success. The surge in sales following the launch of the iPhone 6, which began in September 2014, has left an acute hangover. And the longer it goes on, the more the pressure will grow on Apple to prove that it can still whip up fresh excitement for its ageing smartphone line when the time comes to reveal the iPhone 7 later this year.

这些数据表明一个已然显而易见的事实：苹果正处于过去成功的阴影下。iPhone 6发布后的销量飙升（从2014年9月开始）带来了严重的后遗症。这种后遗症持续的时间越长，苹果面临的压力就越大：苹果将于今年晚些时候发布iPhone 7，它要证明届时自己仍然能够重新激起人们对其日益老化的智能手机产品线的兴奋。

“We’ve hit an innovation plateau,” says Geoff Blaber at CCS Insight. “The iPhone can’t grow indefinitely.” Apple’s greatest challenge, he adds, is living up to the outsized expectations generated by its own success.

“我们到达了一个创新平台期，”CCS Insight的杰夫?布拉韦尔(Geoff Blaber)表示，“iPhone销量不可能无限地增长。”他补充称，苹果面临的最大挑战，是满足其自己的成功带来的过高期待。

According to Apple executives, however, there is nothing new in the iPhone’s current product cycle, even if the pullback has looked greater.

然而，苹果高管称，尽管这次的滑坡看上去更严重，但iPhone当前的产品周期并没有什么新鲜的。

The pause is very similar to the one seen two years ago, according to Tim Cook, chief executive. Then Apple followed a significant overhaul 6 of the iPhone with a year in which it produced fewer changes. If anything, the upgrade rate by iPhone customers is better than it was then and the underlying 7 picture remains 8 healthy, he insisted on an analyst 9 call following the results.

苹果首席执行官蒂姆?库克(Tim Cook)称，这种停顿与两年前非常相似。当时的苹果在对iPhone进行了一次大幅调整之后的一年里都没有多少创新。在公布财报后的分析师电话会议上，库克坚称，如今iPhone客户的更新换代速度反而要好于当年，基本状况仍很健康。

Mr Cook also brushed off suggestions that Apple was passing from being a growth company. Asked if it was time to rethink Apple’s position in the tech world, he said: “This too shall pass”.

库克还否认这种看法：苹果已不再是一家增长型公司。在被问及现在是否该重新思考苹果在科技界的角色时，他回答：“增长的停顿是暂时的。”

But there were enough signs in the earnings 10 to make investors think twice.

但财报中显露了足够多值得投资者三思的迹象。

One was a slide in Apple’s Greater China segment, until recently its strongest source of growth. Though accounting 11 for only 25 per cent of total sales, the region was responsible for 60 per cent of the revenue decline in the first quarter. According to Mr Cook, however, mainland China was more robust 12 than those figures suggest, with end demand only sliding by 5 per cent after an inventory adjustment. The bigger regional decline, he added, was caused by lower sales in Hong Kong — a result, he said, of tumbling purchases by tourists.

第一个迹象是苹果在大中华区的表现——直到最近，该地区一直是苹果最强劲的增长来源。大中华区仅占苹果今年第一季度总营收的25%，但该地区占到苹果该季度营收同比减少额的60%。然而，库克称，中国内地市场要比这些数字显示的更为强劲，在经过库存调整后，终端需求仅下滑5%。他补充称，该地区较大幅度的下滑源于香港销量下滑；他表示，香港的下滑源于游客购买量下挫。

A hefty decline in overall iPhone prices also added to unease. With customers showing a preference for cheaper, older models, the average selling price fell by $49 from three months before, to $642.

iPhone整体价位的大幅下跌也加剧了人们的不安。由于客户显示出对价格更低的较老机型的偏好，平均售价较3个月前下跌49美元，至642美元。

Pricing is expected to come under more pressure, following the launch of the iPhone SE, a cheaper device with a smaller, four-inch screen designed to expand Apple’s reach into more parts of the smartphone market.

在iPhone SE发布后，预计iPhone定价将面临更大压力。iPhone SE是一款价格较低、屏幕尺寸较小（4英寸）的手机，旨在扩大苹果对智能手机市场的覆盖面。

If iPhone sales have been flagging this year, then there has been little to make up the difference. Apple’s other hardware products also turned in weak results in the latest period. The iPad continued its decline, with unit sales down 19 per cent from a year before, while a halving 13 of revenues from the company’s “other products” segment from the preceding three months hinted at a big decline in sales of the Watch.

如果iPhone销量今年一直疲弱的话，没有多少别的产品能够填补空缺。今年第一季度，苹果的其他硬件产品也业绩不佳。iPad销量继续下滑，同比下降19%，而“其他产品”营收环比一半的降幅，暗示苹果Watch销量也大幅下滑。

Even sales of the Mac, which had held up during a broader slump in PC demand, registered a decline, with unit sales down 12 per cent.

就连个人电脑(PC)需求普遍低迷期间曾保持坚挺的Mac也不例外，销量同比减少12%。

Amid the broader pullback, it was left to Apple’s services segment to produce the one bright spot. Three months ago, most analysts 14 paid little attention when Apple sought to shine a light on the services division, choosing to see it as a sign that the company was trying to shift attention away from the iPhone’s slide.

在普遍的业绩滑坡中，仅存的亮点就是苹果的服务业务了。3个月前，当苹果试图推介其服务业务时，多数分析师几乎没有关注，而是将其看作该公司为转移人们对iPhone销量下滑的关注而使用的障眼法。

Given that it still accounts for two-thirds of overall sales and has seen such violent swings, however, the fate of the iPhone is likely to dominate Wall Street’s attention for years to come.

然而，鉴于iPhone仍占苹果总营收的三分之二，而且出现了如此剧烈的波动，iPhone的表现在未来几年可能仍会是华尔街关注的重点。