怎样从泡沫中获益？

 　　Over the last 13 years, investors 2 have experienced some of the largest financial bubbles in history. Asian currencies rose and fell, technology and Internet shares suffered staggering losses, oil and other commodities rode a wild roller coaster, and the collapse 3 of the housing market caused trillions of dollars of damage.

　　过去13年中，投资者经历了一系列历史上最大的金融泡沫：亚洲货币升跌起落；科技及互联网股遭受巨大损失；石油及其它商品价格波动如同过山车；而房市崩盘导致损失达数万亿美元。
　　Already, some see signs of new real-estate bubbles in markets like China, Australia, Canada and even smaller countries, such as Israel. Rather than aberrations 4, there's reason to think that financial bubbles have become more common.
　　而中国、澳大利亚、加拿大甚至以色列等较小国家，在有些人看来，已出现新的地产泡沫迹象。认为金融泡沫已更为常见并非不经之谈，而有其合理的理由。
　　And markets are more volatile 5 -- as was evidenced on Friday when news reports of Securities and Exchange Commission charges against Goldman Sachs Group precipitated 6 a sudden and sharp selloff.
　　当前市场更为波动，正如上周五所见，美国证券交易委员会(Securities and Exchange Commission)对高盛集团（Goldman Sachs Group）发出指控的新闻报道引发市场急剧抛售。
　　How can investors deal with the new environment?
　　投资者如何应对这种新的投资环境呢？
　　Analysts 7 offer a range of suggestions, including dropping buy-and-hold strategies, holding more cash and purchasing a range of downside protection, such as options and so-called inverse 8 exchange-traded funds.
　　分析师们提供了一系列建议，诸如放弃“买入并持有”策略、持有更多现金，以及购买一些下行风险保护产品，如期权及所谓的反向交易所上市基金等。
　　Competitive Investing竞争性投资
　　Among the reasons so many markets are surging to sky-high levels before tumbling to painful depths: Investors are able to chase almost any kind of trade today, thanks to new products, such as ETFs. Pressure has never been greater for investment pros 9 to keep up with competitors, encouraging them to ape their rivals' trades. Also, more pros have embraced 'momentum 10' investing, buying investments as they move higher, and selling them as they fall, to try to ride the moves.
　　在众多市场骤然冲高而后深跌的原因中，有一条是：因交易所上市基金(ETF)等新产品的推出，今天的投资者可追逐几乎各种交易。投资专业人士面临从未有过的巨大压力要紧跟竞争者，由此促使他们模仿对手的交易。同时，更多的投资专业人士接受了动态投资策略，上扬时买入，回落时抛出，以紧跟市场节奏。
　　Meanwhile, globalization and other developments have pushed inflation lower, encouraging central bankers to drop interest rates so low that many investors have turned to cheap borrowed money for their trades, fueling financial bubbles. The free-flow of trading information also may have made markets more volatile and prone 11 to wild trading.
　　同时，全球化及其它发展使得通胀放缓，各国央行由此保持低息，以致众多投资者转而通过低息借款来进行交易，加剧了金融泡沫。交易信息的自由流动可能也使市场更为波动，更易出现失控的交易行为。
　　'The size of the bubble is in direct proportion to the ease with which news and rumors 12 can be spread and the ease with which people can then trade on these rumors,' says Aswath Damodaran, a professor of finance at the Stern School of Business at New York University.
　　纽约大学斯特恩商学院(Stern School of Business at New York University)的金融学教授达莫达伦(Aswath Damodaran)说，泡沫的大小与消息及流言传播的自由度及人们由此进行交易的自由度成正比。
　　The new environment presents unique challenges. It's often hard to identify a financial bubble. The surge in gold over the past few years strikes some analysts as dangerous. Global markets often move in lockstep today, making it harder to avoid a sharp downturn.
　　新环境带来独特的挑战。金融泡沫通常难以界定。过去几年金价跃升在部分分析师看来极为危险。而当今全球市场常常同步运行使得避免发生急剧下挫更为艰难。
　　But investors who adopt a perpetually worried outlook will miss out on big gains -- such as the 76% rise for the S&P 500 index since the market bottomed out just over a year ago.
　　但持长期看空观点的投资者将会错失丰厚盈利的机会，比如，就在一年前，市场触底反弹，标准普尔500指数(S&P 500 index)上涨幅度达76%。
　　Rather than predict how long markets will climb, or when they might tumble, a better idea is to embrace new strategies. For one thing, it's no longer safe to buy an investment and store it away. Taking profits after a big runup once was the mark of a timid investor 1; today, it's a sign of smarts.
　　与其预测市场会持续上涨多久，或市场何时下跌，还不如采取新的策略。原因之一是，买入一项投资并长期持有已不再安全。过去，投资者趁市场出现一波大反弹即获利了结被视为胆小，而今，这却是聪明的表现。
　　'One of the lessons from 2008 is that buy and hold is a much riskier 13 proposition,' says Jack 14 Ablin, chief investment officer of Harris Private Bank.
　　芝加哥Harris Private Bank首席投资长埃布林(Jack Ablin)表示，2008年的一个教训是“买入并持有”建议具较高风险。
　　Staying Liquid保持流动性
　　Just as important, investors need to make sure they're not stuck in hard-to-sell holdings if they might need to raise cash in the short term. Too many investors were caught in 2008 in investments that turned out to be quite illiquid, such as high-yielding money-market funds that held risky 15 debt.
　　如果有短期现金需要，投资者需要确定不会陷于持有难以出手的投资产品中，这一点同样重要。2008年有太多投资者被套入流动性极差的投资产品中，如被风险债所累的高收益货币市场基金等产品。
　　Buying protection and having ample cash on hand also are musts. Some analysts recommend inverse ETFs, which provide a return that's the inverse of global markets or sectors 16. If markets tumble, these ETFs should rise in value.
　　购买保护性产品及手头持有充足现金也是必须的。有分析师推荐反向ETF(inverse ETF)，该产品在全球市场或行业下滑时提供回报。如果市场下跌，这类ETF产品价格应上涨。
　　An investor who is convinced that his portfolio 17 will do well over the long haul and is unwilling 18 to sell shares, but is still worried about a short-term market tumble, might place 5% of the value of his portfolio in shares of ProShares Short S&P500, an ETF that climbs when the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index falls.
　　投资者若确信其投资组合长期来看可盈利而不愿抛售，但又担心市场会出现短期下滑，则可以其投资组合价值的5%购入做空标普500指数的ProShares Short S&P500，这种ETF产品在标普500指数下滑时会上涨。
　　That could provide cushion in an abrupt 19 tumble. Investors holding heavy doses of shares of smaller companies can purchase the ProShares Short Russell2000, which rises when the small companies in the Russell 2000 drop.
　　这可在市场出现突然性下滑时提供缓冲。重仓小型公司股的投资者可购买做空罗素2000指数的ProShares Short Russell2000产品，这种产品在罗素2000指数成份股中小型公司股价下滑时反而上涨。
　　These ETFs sometimes don't track markets exactly, especially when trading gets volatile, so they're not a perfect solution.
　　这些ETF产品有时并不切合市场走势，特别是在交易极为波动之时，因而并非完美的解决方案。
　　Another option is to choose a 'tactical asset' or 'tactical-allocation' mutual 20 fund, or one that shifts among various assets, in an attempt to avoid getting caught in a painful downturn. One example: the Pimco All Asset Fund.
　　另一种方案是选择“战术性资产”或“战术性配置”共同基金，或者说是在不同资产间转换的产品，以避免在大跌中被套。例如：Pimco 全资产基金( Pimco All Asset Fund)。
　　Cash at the Ready备足现金
　　The simplest form of protection is holding ample cash. Today, money-market funds pay puny 21 returns, but that's not a steep price to pay for both safety and the ability to re-enter a market after a tumble.
　　具直接的保护方式是持有充足现金。目前，货币市场基金回报微乎其乎，但考虑到安全性及在市场下跌后有资金重新入市，付出这种代价并不过高。
　　'Investors must be more willing to employ cash as a legitimate 22 asset class,' says Mr. Ablin.
　　埃布林说，投资者必须更乐于将现金当做一类可合理运作的资产。
　　Investors need to have more cash on hand than in the past, argues Jeff Fishman, who runs JSF Financial, a Los Angeles-based financial-advisory firm.
　　洛杉矶的一家金融咨询公司JSF Financial 的管理人菲什曼（Jeff Fishman）说，投资者手头的现金要比以往多才行。
　　In the past, he recommended that investors hold cash equating 23 to three to six months of living expenses. But on the heels of the markets' turbulence 24 over the past decade, he now advises they hold cash amounting to six to 12 months of living expenses, especially since banks have slashed 25 or eliminated home-equity lines of credit to many individuals, something many relied on as a safety net.
　　过去，他推荐投资者手头持有相当于三至六月生活开支的现金。但鉴于过去10年市场动荡，目前他建议投资者持有相当于六至12个月生活开支的现金，特别是从各银行针对众多个人削减或取消了家庭资产类贷款以来，这种贷款被许多人视为现金来源的安全保证。
　　Mr. Fishman is a fan of shorter-term tax-free bond funds, such as the Vanguard Short-Term Tax-Exempt Fund and the AIM Tax-Free Intermediate Fund, as good places to stash 26 short-term funds.
　　菲什曼热衷于短期免税型债券基金，像先锋短期免税基金(Vanguard Short-Term Tax-Exempt Fund)及另类投资市场免税中间基金(AIM Tax-Free Intermediate Fund)，均是存放短期资金的不错去处。