特朗普性格特点及热衷交易的本性

 　　Seek him out early and shower him with praise.

　　早点找到他，对他不吝溢美之词。
　　Offer political transactions and promise to help make America great.
　　提出政治交易并承诺帮美国再次伟大。
　　Arm yourself with hard facts and, above all, avoid irritating him because he’s easily provoked.
　　用无可动摇的事实武装你自己，最重要的是，要避免激怒他，因为他一点就着。
　　That’s the kind of the advice I heard Americans sharing with their Middle Eastern friends as the battle for Donald Trump 1’s heart and mind gets under way.
　　这是在赢得特朗普的心和头脑之战打响之际，我听到美国人分享给其中东朋友的建议。
　　The US president-elect’s policies are still a mystery but his character and love of the deal are well documented.
　　这位美国当选总统的政策仍然是个谜，但是他的性格特点及热衷交易的本性是有据可查的。
　　Like much of the world, the Middle East was stunned 2 by the election of a political neophyte 3 with no foreign policy experience, and no links to the Washington establishment they have courted for decades.
　　就像世界大部分地方一样，中东也因这个从没有外交经验、且与他们示好了数十年的华盛顿建制派毫无关联的政治新手当选美国总统而震惊。
　　A foreign policy forum 4 I attended in Abu Dhabi underlined how confident officials in the region were about a Hillary Clinton victory.
　　我在阿布扎比参加的一个外交政策论坛突显了中东官员对希拉里.克林顿(Hillary Clinton)获胜是多么有信心。
　　Just before the election, in fact, some of her advisers 6 had held talks in the Gulf 7 as they plotted her Middle East strategy.
　　事实上，就在大选前，希拉里的几个顾问还在海湾地区举行了会谈，策划她的中东战略。
　　Instead, a region that is all too familiar with the dangers of populism, polarisation and trafficking in semi-truths watched with dismay as the US elected a leader whose approach to the Middle East rests on a few slogans — a promise to get tough with Iran and even tougher with Islamists.
　　结果，这个对民粹主义、两极分化以及贩卖半谣言的危险太熟悉不过的地区，只能眼睁睁地看着美国选出一个对中东的策略仅停留在一些口号——承诺强硬对待伊朗、更强硬地对待伊斯兰主义者——的领导人。
　　At this early stage, two regional winners appear to have emerged.
　　在特朗普获胜后的初期阶段，该地区似乎出现了两个赢家。
　　The first is Israel’s far right, which is cheering Mr Trump’s election, expecting him to give up on the idea of a Palestinian state.
　　第一个是为特朗普当选欢呼的以色列极右翼分子，他们希望特朗普放弃承认巴勒斯坦国的想法。
　　The second is Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, the Egyptian president, who has made it his mission to eradicate 8 the Muslim Brotherhood 9 and has been hailed by Mr Trump as a fantastic guy.
　　第二个赢家是埃及总统阿卜杜勒.法塔赫.塞西(Abdel Fattah al-Sisi)，他以铲除穆斯林兄弟会(Muslim Brotherhood)为己任，被特朗普称赞为很棒的家伙。
　　Half jokingly, some analysts 10 say the United Arab Emirates too could benefit from Mr Trump’s presidency 11, if only because he is familiar with Dubai, where he is developing a golf course.
　　一些分析人士半开玩笑地说，阿联酋也可能从特朗普当选总统受益，因为他在迪拜开发一个高尔夫球场，对这里十分熟悉。
　　Across the Gulf, however, officials still don’t know what to make of Mr Trump.
　　然而，纵观整个海湾地区，官员们仍然不知道该如何看待特朗普。
　　But given widespread disenchantment with the administration of Barack Obama and its perceived pivot 12 towards Iran, Sunni Arab states are hoping the incoming leader will rekindle 13 the love affair with America.
　　但考虑到他们普遍对巴拉克.奥巴马(Barack Obama)政府感到失望，也对他们认为的奥巴马政府把重心转向伊朗感到失望，逊尼派的阿拉伯国家希望这位新领导人能带来新的蜜月期。
　　Officials speak cautiously of potential opportunities if the US drops its flirtation 14 with Tehran.
　　中东官员谨慎地谈到如果美国不再与伊朗眉来眼去可能出现的机会。
　　Yet the president-elect could prove too zealous 15 even for hardline opponents of Iran.
　　不过，即使对于伊朗的强硬派对手来说，这位当选总统可能也太疯狂了。
　　Take the nuclear agreement, which Mr Trump has so often railed against.
　　以特朗普常常炮轰的核协议为例。
　　However much Gulf states dislike the accord, no one is advocating its reversal.
　　不管海湾国家多么不喜欢该协议，没人主张推翻它。
　　The Trump administration should focus on strong enforcement and call out violations 16, say Gulf officials; and it should punish Iran for its meddling 17 in Arab affairs, from Syria to Iraq, from Bahrain to Yemen.
　　海湾地区的官员表示，特朗普政府应该把精力放在强有力地执行该协议并且大声指出违反该协议的举动；它应该惩罚伊朗干涉阿拉伯事务——从叙利亚到伊拉克、从巴林到也门。
　　This list of wishes, however, will clash with two of Mr Trump’s instincts: an inclination 18 towards disengagement and a questioning of the value of alliances.
　　然而，这份愿望清单将有悖于特朗普的两个本能：置身事外的倾向以及对结盟意义的质疑。
　　One risk facing a Trump presidency is that raising the pressure on Iran could provoke the country to withdraw from the nuclear agreement and accelerate its pursuit of an atomic bomb.
　　特朗普担任总统面临的一个风险是，对伊朗进一步施压可能会促使伊朗退出核协议并且加快研制核弹。
　　Meanwhile, traditional Sunni allies will be left to confront the resulting explosion in tensions alone.
　　与此同时，传统的逊尼派盟友将被迫独自面对这导致的紧张骤升。
　　Mr Trump will also find every move on the Middle East chessboard has a knock-on effect.
　　特朗普也会发现，在中东棋盘上的一举一动都会带来连锁反应。
　　Consider Syria: he favours greater co-operation with Russia.
　　考虑一下叙利亚问题：他支持加大与俄罗斯合作。
　　This would bolster 19 the Assad regime — as well as its primary ally, Iran, at a time when the intention is to weaken Tehran.
　　这将支持阿萨德政权——及其主要盟友伊朗，而目的本来是削弱伊朗。
　　Joining hands with Moscow would also alienate 20 Saudi Arabia, a leading backer of Syria’s rebels and arch-enemy of Iran.
　　美国与俄罗斯联手，还将疏远沙特阿拉伯——叙利亚反对派的主要支持者以及伊朗的死敌。
　　The other risk for the region is that even if Mr Trump modifies his more extreme positions, the rhetoric 21 from both him and his team can still do immeasurable damage — radicalising more Muslims and feeding the ranks of extremist groups that the president-elect has vowed 22 to fight.
　　该地区面临的另一个风险是，即便特朗普缓和他更为极端的一些立场，他和他团队的言论仍然可能带来不可估量的伤害——使更多穆斯林变得激进、使这位当选总统发誓要打击的极端组织的队伍进一步壮大。
　　Michael Flynn, Mr Trump’s choice for national security adviser 5, has said that Islam is not a religion as much as a political ideology 23 and has compared it to a cancer.
　　特朗普选择的国家安全顾问迈克尔.弗林(Michael Flynn)称伊斯兰教与其说是宗教不如说是政治意识形态，并且把伊斯兰教比作癌症。
　　Neither he nor Mr Trump, moreover, appear to distinguish between different types of Islamists — political or extremist.
　　此外，无论他还是特朗普似乎都不会区分不同类型的伊斯兰教信仰者——政治人士或是极端分子。
　　It won’t be long, though, before Mr Trump discovers that, in the quicksands of the Middle East, the tiniest of mis-steps can turn quickly into a big, bad crisis.
　　不过，用不了多久特朗普就会发现，在中东的流沙里，哪怕迈错极小的一步都可能很快引发一场严重的大危机。