经济学人510:国际新秩序

　　Leaders

社论

The new world order

国际新秩序

The post-Soviet 1 world order was far from perfect, but Vladimir Putin's idea for replacing it is much worse

后苏联时代世界秩序远不够完美，普京构建新秩序的想法却更糟

“IN PEOPLE'S hearts and minds,” Vladimir Putin told Russia's parliament this week, “Crimea has always been an inseparable part of Russia.”

本周，普京在俄罗斯议会发表演说时表示“在人民的心目中，克里米亚始终是俄罗斯不可分割的一部分”。

He annexed 2 the peninsula with dazzling speed and efficiency, backed by a crushing majority in a referendum.

普京以迅雷不及掩耳之势吞并克里米亚半岛，且在公民投票中获得压倒性支持。

He calls it a victory for order and legitimacy 3 and a blow against Western meddling 4.

他将之称为秩序和法律的胜利，这是对西方干预的打击。

The reality is that Mr Putin is a force for instability and strife 5.

而事实上，普京是世界不稳定和冲突的根源。

The founding act of his new order was to redraw a frontier using arguments that could be deployed 6 to inflame 7 territorial 8 disputes in dozens of places around the world.

其建立世界新秩序的挑衅行为意在重新划定边界，而这一举动的理由可能导致世界上诸多地区陷入领土争端。

Even if most Crimeans do want to joinRussia, the referendum was a farce 9.

即便大部分克里米亚人民希望加入俄罗斯，此次公投也只是场闹剧。

克里米亚.jpg

Russia's recent conduct is often framed narrowly as the start of a new cold war withAmerica.

俄罗斯进来的举动常被狭隘地定义为向美国发起的一场新冷战。

In fact it poses a broader threat to countries everywhere because Mr Putin has driven a tank over the existing world order.

事实上，这些举动对世界各国均造成了威胁，因为在现有世界秩序下，普京开着坦克耀武扬威。

The embrace of the motherland

拥抱祖国

Foreign policy follows cycles.

纵观历史，各国外交政策此消彼长，周而复始。

The Soviet collapse 10 ushered 11 in a decade of unchallenged supremacy 12 for theUnited Statesand the aggressive assertion of American values.

上世纪随着苏联解体，美国迎来了十年的超级霸主地位，随之而来的是美国价值观下的侵略要求。

But, puffed 13 up by the hubris 14 of George Bush, this “unipolar world” choked in the dust ofIraq.

但是，由于小布什傲慢的极度膨胀，“单极世界”湮灭在伊拉克战场的尘土之中。

Since then Barack Obama has tried to fashion a more collaborative approach, built on a belief that America can make common cause with other countries to confront shared problems and isolate 15 wrongdoers.

奥巴马入主白宫后倾向于更具合作性的政策，同其他国家联合应对共同面临的问题，如有必要孤立惹是生非者。

This has failed miserably 16 in Syria but shown some signs of working with Iran.

奥巴马的政策在叙利亚遭遇重挫，转而流露出同伊朗合作的迹象。

Even in its gentler form, it is American clout 17 that keeps sea lanes open, borders respected and international law broadly observed. To that extent, the post-Soviet order has meaning.

即便是持以温和姿态，国际航运、国际边界、国际法律也是在美国的周旋下得以维持。如此说来，后苏联秩序意义非凡。

Mr Putin is now destroying that. He dresses up his takeover of Crimea in the garb 18 of international law, arguing for instance that the ousting 19 of the government in Kiev means he is no longer bound by a treaty guaranteeing Ukraine's borders that Russiasigned in 1994, when Ukraine gave up nuclear weapons.

现在，普京正在破坏这一秩序，他假借国际法之名接管克里米亚，并坚称推翻乌克兰政府职权意味着俄罗斯无需继续遵守俄乌两国于1994年签署的边界条约，这一条约是乌克兰承诺放弃核武器计划时签订的。

But international law depends on governments inheriting the rights and duties of their predecessors 20.

但是，国际法有赖于新政府继承往届政府的职责和权力。

Similarly, he has invoked 21 the principle that he must protect his “compatriots” meaning anybody he chooses to define as Russian—wherever they are.

同样，普京援用自己必须保护“同胞”的原则，可能是任何他选定的俄罗斯人，无论那些“同胞”在哪。

Against all evidence, he has denied that the unbadged troops who took control of Crimea were Russian.

尽管种种证据都指向他，普京依旧否认那些控制克里米亚而未佩戴肩章的军士为俄国军队。

That combination of protection and subterfuge 22 is a formula for intervention 23 in any country with a minority, not just a Russian one.

打着保护的旗帜，却以各种托词否认事实是强国干涉任何弱势国家的惯用伎俩，不止是俄罗斯一国如此。

Brandishing 24 fabricated accounts of Ukrainian fascists 25 threatening Crimea, he has defied the principle that intervention abroad should be a last resort in the face of genuine suffering.

干涉他国事物是在该国真正陷入困境时的不得已而为之的手段，对此不以为然的普京强词夺理，称乌克兰法西斯威胁着克里米亚地区。

He cites NATO's bombing of Kosovo in 1999 as a precedent 26, but that came after terrible violence and exhaustive efforts at the UN—whichRussiablocked.

普京将1999年北约轰炸科索沃作为前车之鉴，但那次事件是由于俄罗斯阻挠，导致严重暴力事件的发生、且在联合国协商僵持不下之后的恶果。

Even then Kosovo was not, like Crimea, immediately annexed, but seceded 27 nine years later.

即便是科索沃也不像这次克里米亚事件一样，前者是事发九年后才被吞并，而后在几乎是在一念之间便发生了。

Mr Putin's new order, in short, is built on revanchism, a reckless disdain 28 for the truth and the twisting of the law to mean whatever suits those in power.

简而言之，普京的新世界秩序是建立在复仇主义的基础上，这一粗暴无视事实及曲解国际法的行径，意图再明显不过，即满足掌权者的需求。

That makes it no order at all.

这也就导致世界毫无秩序可言。

Sadly, too few people understand this.

悲哀的是，几乎没有人看透这一点。

Plenty of countries resent American primacy and Western moralising.

美国世界霸主地位及西方国家说教，都让很多国家深恶痛疾。

But they would find Mr Putin's new order far worse.

但是，他们会发现普京的新秩序或许更糟。

Small countries thrive in an open system of rules, albeit 29 imperfect ones.

在开放的世界体系中，尽管这一体系并不完美，但小国终归还是得以繁荣。

If might is right, they have much to fear, especially if they must contend with an aggressive regional power.

或许，如果这一思路是对的，小国们就得提高警惕了，尤其是他们需要同一个侵略性十足的地区霸主相抗衡的时候。

Larger countries, especially the new giants of the emerging world, face less threat of bullying 30, but an anarchic, mistrustful world would harm them all the same.

大国，尤其是新兴世界的新寡头将不会面临太多欺凌，但是一个混乱、互相失去信任的国家对他们来说同样不利。

If international agreements are robbed of their meaning, India could more easily be sucked into a clash of arms with Chinaover Arunachal Pradesh or Ladakh with Pakistan.

如果国际条约不再具有其原有的意义，印度可能会轻易就阿鲁那恰尔邦争端同中国短兵相接，或是就拉达克问题同巴基斯坦兵刃相见。

If unilateral secession is acceptable, Turkeywill find it harder to persuade its Kurds that their future lies in making peace.

如果单边分离可以为人所接受，土耳其游说库尔德人双方未来会走向和平势必会更加困难。

Egypt andSaudi Arabia wantIran's regional ambitions to be tamped 31 down, not fed by the principle that it can intervene to help Shia Muslims across theMiddle East.

埃及、沙特阿拉伯希望伊朗控制一下区域野心，不要认为自己能够通过干涉，达到支持整个中东国家的什叶派穆斯林。

Even Chinashould pause.

即便是中国也要设身处地的想一想。

Tactically,Crimeaties it in knots.

从战术层面来讲克里米亚问题同其息息相关。

The precedent of secession is anathema 32, because of Tibet; the principle of unification is sacrosanct 33, because ofTaiwan.

因为西藏问题，不幸中国已有了分离的先例；因为台湾问题，中国统一的原则神圣不可侵犯。

Strategically, though,China's interests are clear.

尽管从战略层面来讲，中国的利益十分明晰。

For decades, it has sought to rise peacefully within the system, avoiding the competition that an upstart Germany launched against Britain in the 19th century and which ended in war.

数十年来，中国在其现有体制下寻求和平崛起，避免像十九世纪时德国为同英国展开竞争，最终导致战争的情况出现。

But peace is elusive 34 in Mr Putin's world, because anything can become a pretext 35 for action, and any perceived aggression 36 demands a riposte.

但是，和平在普京的字典里定义模棱两可，因为任何理由都可能成为他展开行动的托词，任何潜在的侵略都需要予以打击。

Act now or pay later

要么现在展开行动，要么以后付出代价

For Mr Obama, this is a defining moment: he must lead, not just co-operate.

对于奥巴马来说，这是个关键性时刻：他需要扮演领导者的角色，而不仅仅是合作伙伴。

But Crimeashould also matter to the rest of the world.

但是，对于世界其他国家，克里米亚问题同样至关重要。

Given what is at stake, the response has so far been weak and fragmented.ChinaandIndiahave more or less stood aside.

考虑到现在一触即发的局势，世界各国对于克里米亚问题反应仍旧太过无力、且四分五裂。

The West has imposed visa sanctions and frozen a few Russians' assets.

中国和印度或多或少都会采取隔岸观火的态势，西方已经对俄罗斯采取签证限制、冻结少数俄罗斯人的资产等制裁措施。

The targets call this a badge of honour.

被制裁的俄罗斯人反而觉得这是一种荣誉的象征。

At the very least, the measures must start to exceed expectations.

至少，现在制裁措施应该超出人们预期。

Asset freezes can be powerful, because, as the Iransanctions showed, international finance dreads 37 being caught up in America's regulatory machinery 38.

资产冻结极为有效，因为随着对伊朗的相关制裁措施效果显现，国际资金担心会被美国的监管机制逮个正着。

Mr Putin's kleptocratic friends would yelp 39 if Britainmade Londonunwelcome to Russian money linked to the regime.

如果英国表示不欢迎俄罗斯的资金同其政府有太多牵涉，普京那些贪腐政界友人势必会抓狂。

France should withhold 40 its arms sales toRussia; and, in case eastern Ukraine is next,Germany must be prepared to embargo 41 Russian oil and gas.

法国应该停止对俄军售；德国应该时刻准备对俄实行油气禁运，以防乌克兰东部同样会被俄罗斯吞并。

Planning should start right now to lessenEurope's dependence 42 on Russian energy and to strengthen NATO.

现在应该立即着手准备，减轻欧洲队俄罗斯能源的依赖，强化北约的作用。

Ukraineneeds short-term money, to stave off collapse, and longer-term reforms, with the help of the IMF, backed by as much outside advice as the country will stomach.

为避免经济崩溃，乌克兰需要短期资金救济，而从长远来看，乌克兰需要改革。在世界货币基金组织的帮助下，在外界诸多建议的支持下，乌克兰会走出困境。

As a first step,America must immediately pay its dues to the fund, which have been blocked by Congress for months.

首先，美国应该立即缴纳IMF的会费资金，该资金由于国会阻挠已拖延数月。

Even if the West is prepared to take serious measures against Mr Putin, the world's rising powers may not be inclined to condemn 43 him.

即便西方准备对普京采取严厉制裁措施，世界上大的发展中国家或许不会迁怒于普京。

But instead of acquiescing 44 in his illegal annexation 45 of Crimea, they should reflect on what kind of a world order they want to live under.

但是，除了默许普京非法吞并克里米亚，他们应该反思自己想要生活在一个什么样的世界秩序下。

Would they prefer one in which states by and large respect international agreements and borders?

他们是愿意呆在一个大体上尊重国际协议和边界的秩序下？

Or one in which words are bent 46, borders ignored and agreements broken at will?

还是愿意呆在一个可以肆意曲解承诺、无视边界、破坏协议的秩序下？