经济学人:自由交换 美墨两国的经济隔阂比墙还厚(上)

 　　Finance and economic: Free exchange: Better than a wall

　　财经：自由交换：美墨两国的经济隔阂比墙还厚
　　Understanding NAFTA, a disappointing but under-appreciated trade deal.
　　理解北美自由贸易协定——一个令人失望而又被低估的贸易协定。
　　The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) has long been a populist punchbag.
　　北美自由贸易协定一直以来，都被当作民粹主义者的攻击目标。
　　美墨两国的经济隔阂比墙还厚.jpeg
　　In the American presidential campaign of 1992, Ross Perot—an oddball Texas billionaire and independent candidate—claimed to hear a “giant sucking sound” as Mexico prepared to hoover up American jobs.
　　在1992年美国总统大选时，罗斯佩罗——得克萨斯州一位性格古怪的亿万富翁，同时也是1992年美国总统大选的无党派候选人——声称在墨西哥准备好掠夺美国的工作机会时，他仿佛听到了 “巨大的吮吸声”。
　　Since its enactment 1, right-wing conspiracy 2 theorists have speculated that NAFTA is merely a first step towards “North American Union”, and the swapping 3 of the almighty 4 dollar for the “amero”.
　　自从北美自由贸易协定签订以来，右翼阴谋论者就在猜测NAFTA只是迈向“北美联盟”的第一步，并且还将用阿梅罗(北美联合货币)来代替无所不能的美元。
　　Donald Trump 5, who plans to renegotiate (or scrap) the deal, mined a rich vein 6 of anti-NAFTA sentiment during his campaign, calling it “the single worst trade deal ever approved in this country”.
　　川普在竞选活动中已然利用了民众反北美联盟的情绪，他宣称这是“这个国家通过的最为糟糕的贸易协定”，而他现在正准备重新商定(或者说废除)该贸易协定。
　　Even NAFTA’s cheerleaders (a more reticent 7 bunch) might concede that the deal has fallen short of their expectations.
　　即使是NAFTA的支持者(一个更为缄默的人群)也不得不承认这份贸易协定未能达到他们的预期。
　　But it is in none of the signatories’ interests to rip it up or roll it back.
　　但没有一个签署国愿意去撕毁协定或者降低它的效力。
　　America and Canada opened talks on a free-trade area with Mexico in 1990, shortly after securing their own bilateral 8 deal, and it was bringing in Mexico that proved so contentious 9 in America.
　　在美国和加拿大在达成双边协定后不久，1990年，他们又与墨西哥就“自由贸易区”展开了会谈，打算将墨西哥这个地理位置有争议的美洲国家纳入自由贸易区。
　　When NAFTA took effect in 1994, it eliminated tariffs 10 on more than half of its members’ industrial products.
　　1994年北美自由贸易区(NAFTA)生效后，超过半数的成员国的工业制品都被免除关税。
　　Over the next 15 years the deal eliminated tariffs on all industrial and agricultural goods.
　　在接下来的15年间，这份贸易协定免除了所有工业制品和农产品的关税。
　　(The three economies would have further liberalized trade within the Trans-Pacific Partnership 11, which Mr Trump scotched 12 in one of his first acts as president. )
　　(这三个经济体本可以在泛太平洋合作伙伴框架下进一步开放贸易，然而特朗普先生却在他当上总统后立马将其取缔。)
　　Americans hoped lower trade barriers would foster growth in cross-border supply chains—a “Factory North America” —to rival those in Europe and Asia.
　　美国希望更低的贸易壁垒可以促进跨境供应链，即所谓的“北美工厂”的发展，以便与欧洲和亚洲的竞争者抗衡。
　　By moving parts of their supply chains to Mexico, where labor 13 costs were low, American firms reckoned they could cut costs and improve their global competitiveness.
　　美国公司认为，通过把部分供应链转向劳动力成本低廉的墨西哥，他们可以降低成本，提高全球竞争力。
　　American consumers might also benefit from cheaper goods.
　　美国的消费者也可以从较为低廉的商品中受惠。
　　For its part, Mexico sought improved access to America’s massive market, and sturdier positions for its firms within those North American supply chains.
　　就墨西哥自身而言，它找到了一种进入美国巨大市场的更好途径，并巩固了它在北美供应链中的地位。
　　Both countries hoped the deal would boost Mexico’s economy, raising living standards and stanching 14 the flow of migrants northward 15.
　　美墨两国都希望北美自由贸易协定可以振兴墨西哥经济，提高墨国人民生活水平，并在一定程度上遏制移民进入美国。
　　NAFTA was no disaster.
　　北美自由贸易协定(NAFTA)并不是什么坏事。
　　Two decades on, North America is more economically integrated.
　　20年以来，北美地区在经济上更为交融。
　　Trade between America and Mexico has risen from 1.3% of combined GDP in 1994 to 2.5% in 2015.
　　美国和墨西哥两国的贸易额从1994年仅占两国总国内生产总值的1.3%上升至2015年的占比2.5%。
　　Mexico’s real income per person, on a purchasing-power- parity 16 basis, has risen from about $10,000 in 1994 to $19,000.
　　在购买力平价的假设下，墨西哥人均实际收入从1994年的10000美元增长至19000美元。
　　The number of Mexicans migrating to America has fallen from about half a million a year to almost none.
　　移民至美国的墨西哥人口数也从每年大约50多万人下降至几乎为零。
　　And yet the deal has disappointed in many ways.
　　但是，这份贸易协定还是有些不尽如人意的地方。
　　Mexican incomes are no higher, as a share of those in America, than they were in 1994.
　　1994年以来，墨西哥人均收入所占美国人均收入的比例几乎没有增长。
　　(Chinese incomes rose from about 6% of those in America to 27% during that time. )
　　(形成对照的是，中国人均收入占美国人均收入之比从6%上升至27%。)
　　Estimates suggest that the deal left Americans as a whole a bit better off.
　　计划是北美贸易协定会使美洲这一个整体经济状况越来越好。
　　But the gains have proved too small, and too unevenly 17 distributed, to spare it continued criticism.
　　但是事实是，该协定产生的利收益太少，且利益分布太不均衡，以至于它一直以来都遭受批评和指责。
　　1.trade deal 贸易协议
　　例句:They have been negotiating a bilateral trade deal.
　　他们一直在商谈一项双边贸易协定。
　　2.better off 富裕的；状况良好的
　　例句:He's much better off than before.
　　他手头比过去宽多了。
　　3.free-trade area 自由贸易区
　　例句:America and South Korea agreed on a plan to form a free-trade area.
　　美国和南韩之间就设置自由贸易区达成协议。
　　4.access to 接近
　　例句:They now have access to the mass markets of Japan and the UK.
　　他们现在进入了日本和英国的大众市场。