VOA双语新闻 --- ADB Forecasts Solid Growth for Asia in 20

The Asian Development Bank says while Asia will not be immune to the global slowdown, economies in the region will continue to see solid growth in 2008. But the bank warns in its annual outlook that inflation in the region will jump this year.

亚洲开发银行星期三报告说，亚洲经济体受全球经济减速影响不大，2008年会继续保持强劲增长。但是亚银同时警告说，今年本地区的通货膨胀预计会进一步恶化。



In 2007, Asia posted the highest growth in almost two decades, with regional economies expanding by 8.7 percent on average. The Asian Development Bank predicts that this year, growth will ease to 7.6 percent, as a result of the slowdown in large industrialized economies as well as surging food and fuel prices and a credit crisis in global financial hubs.

2007年，亚洲地区取得了20多年来最快的经济增长，整个地区的平均增长率高达8.7%。亚洲开发银行预测，2008年亚洲地区的增长率将降低到7.6%，主要原因是工业化大国经济发展减速，再加上食品和燃料价格暴涨，以及世界主要金融市场遭受信贷危机。



But Ifzal Ali, the ADB's chief economist 1, says this year's predicted growth rate is still solid and only slightly below the average of the past five years. He spoke 2 Wednesday in Hong Kong, where the bank unveiled its annual Asian Development Outlook.

伊弗扎尔.阿里是亚洲开发银行的首席经济学家。他指出，亚洲地区今年的经济增长仍然是强劲的，只是跟过去五年相比略微降低。阿里在香港公布亚银的《亚洲开发展望》年度报告的时候说：



"Growth will remain solid because domestic conditions continue to be favorable. The policy environment is generally positiv," he said.. "Productivity growth linked to economic modernization 3 and structural 4 transformation 5 that we have witnessed in the last five years and which have barreled Asia forward are likely to continue."

“由于各国的国内状况依然有利，所以经济增长将保持强劲。政策环境总的来看是积极的。过去五年来我们看到，跟经济现代化密切关联的生产力增长以及结构性转变推动亚洲经济不断进步，这种情况看来会继续下去。”



But risks remain. The ADB warns that inflation in the region will accelerate and could reach a 10-year high in 2008. In China, for example, inflation already has reached an 11-year high of 11.7 percent in February. The Bank is worried about the social and political impact of higher prices for food and other essential commodities, as they mainly affect Asia's poor.

尽管如此，风险却仍然存在。亚洲开发银行警告说，亚洲地区的通货膨胀将加速恶化，有可能在2008年达到10年来的最高水平。比如，在中国，通货膨胀率已经在今年2月达到11.7%，那是过去11年来的最高点。亚洲开发银行担心，食品和其他生活必需品价格持续攀升，亚洲穷人所受的影响最大，有可能引起社会动乱和政治动乱。



Many Asian governments subsidize or control prices of some items to protect consumers and prevent social tensions. The ADB says that Indonesia, for example, spends more on fuel subsidies 6 than on public health and education combined. Ali says these practices put fiscal 7 health at risk, so governments need to rethink them.

亚洲地区的很多政府目前都在通过补贴和控制某些商品的价格来保护消费者，防止社会局势紧张。亚洲开发银行指出，印度尼西亚现在花在燃料补贴方面的资金已经超过了公共卫生和教育经费的总和。阿里认为，这种做法势必给公众的健康带来风险，因此，对于财政补贴，各国政府还需要三思而行。



"We need very quickly exit strategies for subsidies and administrative 8 prices in developing Asia and replace them with targeted cash transfers for the really needy," he said.

阿他说：“亚洲的发展中国家需要尽快放弃补贴和价格控制等做法，取而代之的应该是目标明确地资助那些真正需要帮助的人们。”



The annual report warned that Asian economies need to address labor 9 issues to fuel long-term growth. The report notes that many countries in the region have large populations of unemployed 10 young adults, and that at the same time, these economies face shortages of the skilled workers needed for development.

亚洲开发银行的年度报告还警告说，亚洲经济体要保持长期的增长，需要解决劳工问题。亚银指出，亚洲很多国家失业的年轻人很多，可是这些国家却同时面临技术工人短缺的局面。



The ADB says governments need to do more to educate young workers and help them find jobs. The report says otherwise, countries will lose out for decades on the talent and productivity of these young adults.

亚洲开发银行说，各国政府需要做出更大的努力来为青年工人提供教育和培训，帮助他们找到工作。否则的话，在今后的几十年里，这些国家将由于年轻人缺乏才能和生产力而功败垂成。



In addition, the report urged countries in Asia to make it easier for migrant workers to move about the region, to help fill gaps in labor supplies.

此外，亚洲开发银行还敦促亚洲各国让流动工人在各地区之间更加容易地流动，以弥补不同地区之间在劳动力供应方面的差距。