VOA标准英语2010年-Fallout From Contested Iran Election O

Hundreds of thousands of supporters of leading opposition 1 presidential candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi turn out to protest the result of the election at a mass rally in Azadi (Freedom) square in Tehran, Iran, 15 Jun 2009

One year ago Iran held a presidential election.  The incumbent 2 won, but that result was hotly contested in the streets of Tehran and elsewhere, leading to a bloody 3 government crackdown on dissent 4.  The repercussions 5 from that election and the startling events that followed it are still being felt both inside and outside Iran.

 The voices of protest that so shook Iranian society and startled the world one year ago are largely quiet now, silenced by intimidation 6, imprisonment 7, and even death.

And as former Assistant Secretary of State for Near East Affairs Richard Murphy says, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, whose election sparked the protests, remains 8 firmly entrenched 9 in power and defiant 10 as ever.

"That may have surprised critics who thought that he was seen as a buffoon 11 and a crazy who could be discounted," he said. "But they consolidated 12 ranks so quickly, that is, the Supreme 13 Leader and the Revolutionary Guard, to enforce his election last year.  And I see no cracks in that support as having developed.  If they have, they're off my radar 14."

Home front

The protests erupted because many reformists believed that their favorite, Mir Hossein Mousavi, had been robbed of victory by vote fraud.  The government, seeing the demonstrations 15 as a threat to its rule, cracked down on the protests with force.

The protests eventually withered 16 in the face of the crackdown, and now much of the opposition has been driven underground or into exile.  But Congressional Research Service Iran affairs analyst 17 Ken 18 Katzman says the opposition is not dead, and is even quietly reorganizing.

"There's been a realization 19 among some factions 20 that it was the lack of leadership and organization that harmed them, and then they lost momentum 21 partly because of that," he said. "Some of the factions have formed leadership councils - not an overarching leadership council but some of subgroups under the green umbrella have formed ruling councils, and they're coordinating 22 with each other.  So I think that it is starting to jell in terms of organization."

International front

While the opposition has been reorganizing, the government has been retrenching 23.  Analysts 24 say it appears to remain determined 25 to crush dissent.  On the international front, it has stubbornly clung to what the U.S. and its allies say are ambitions to become a nuclear-armed power.

Former Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs Nicholas Burns, who was deeply involved in the Bush administration's Iran policy making, says the Iranian government has consolidated power at home, but lost standing 26 abroad. 

"But unfortunately, the Iranian government seems to have emerged at least in control, in large control, of the country," he said.  "I would say internationally, they're more isolated 27.  The Iranian government was a big loser last summer.  The whole world can see what an anti-democratic regime it is and to the lengths they go to protect their own rule, and Iran became more isolated because they lost credibility internationally.  So I think I see those dual 28 effects of the crisis of last year."

The Iranian retrenchment 29 and deeper isolation 30 has further complicated the nuclear issue, which remains the main point of contention 31 between Iran and the West.  The calls from some quarters for a military strike on Iran have receded 32 somewhat over the past year, but have not disappeared entirely 33.

Outreach to Iran

The Obama administration came to office calling for a dialogue with Iran, but has made no headway in rapprochement.  Nicholas Burns insists that outreach to Iran is not dead. "We don't like the Iranian government very much at all.  It's a very negative, brutal 34 government," he said.

"But we have to communicate with it in my judgment 35 from time to time, the international community, in order to maximize the chance that diplomacy 36 and negotiations 37 might have some positive impact."  And so I wouldn't give up on diplomacy.  I don't think engagement has been bypassed at all, but I do think that a proper policy would combine the various elements: sanctions and negotiations and further pressure on Iran to meet its Security Council commitments," he added.

The U.S. is pushing in the U.N. Security Council for a fourth round of sanctions against Iran.  However, many analysts say the sanctions had to be weakened to get Russian and .. support and question their effectiveness against a retrenched 38 Iranian government.