VOA双语新闻 --- Economists Debate How Far US Economy Will

Polls show overwhelming numbers of Americans believe the U.S. economy is in a recession, although government statistics have yet to show a period of negative growth that meets the technical definition. What is known is that the American economy has slowed dramatically, and that the U.S. housing and credit markets are in turmoil 1 while the dollar plummets 2 and inflationary pressures are on the rise. There is little consensus 3 among top economists 4 about how bad the situation is.

民意调查显示，绝大多数美国人认为美国的经济进入衰退，尽管政府的统计还没有显示出一定阶段持续的负增长，也就是在技术定义上还不能称为衰退。但是已经知道，美国的经济增长速度已经大大下降，美国住房和信贷市场出现动荡，美元贬值，通货膨胀的压力在上升。高级经济学家对经济困境严重性的看法大相径庭。



Recent months have seen a torrent 5 of troubling economic news, and last week was no exception. The continuing sub-prime mortgage crisis pushed one of America's largest investment banks to the brink 6 of insolvency 7, saved only by a government-facilitated buyout.

最近几个月来，经济麻烦的消息接连不断，上个星期也不例外。次级房屋贷款的危机继续蔓延，导致美国一家主要投资银行接近破产的边缘，经由政府协助的收购才算度过了难关。



U.S. industrial production continued to decline, while oil prices remained above $100 a barrel. The U.S. central bank twice cut interest rates to ease credit and spur economic growth, but even those measures seemed to reinforce the view that the U.S. economy is faltering 8.

美国工业生产持续下降的同时，原油价格也保持在一百美元以上一桶的价格。美国中央银行两次削减利率，以便减缓信贷压力，刺激经济增长。但是这些措施似乎加强了人们认为经济出现困境的观点。



"I think it is very likely we are in a recession right now. I think it is a certainty that we are in something that is going to feel like a recession to most people," said Lawrence Summers, who served as Treasury 9 Secretary during the Clinton administration. "I hope that it will be easily contained and we will see a return to expansion. I do not think, after all that has happened in the financial markets, we can be certain that that is the case."

劳伦斯.萨默斯是美国前总统克林顿政府的财政部长，他说：“我认为很可能我们已经处于经济衰退之中了。我想，我们当然是处于一种对多数人来说感觉就要衰退的阶段。我希望这能够比较容易地得到控制，希望看到经济增长再次出现。但我不认为，金融市场出现了这么多问题之后，我们还能肯定保证峰回路转。”



Summers was speaking on the Fox News Sunday television program. Also appearing on Fox was Glenn Hubbard, a former head of President Bush's Council of Economic Advisors 10. Hubbard says current conditions are grim, but he believes America's economic slowdown will be brief.

萨默斯是在福克斯星期天新闻电视节目中做出上述评论的。在福克斯节目露面的还有格兰.哈巴德，他是布什政府的经济顾问委员会的前任主席。哈巴德说当前的条件是暗淡的，但是他相信美国经济放缓的局面不会很长。



"We have clearly downshifted in the past year from GDP growing above three percent to probably one to 1.5 percent for this year. The labor 11 market has begun to deteriorate 12. The credit crunch 13 is a very big deal for the economy," said Hubbard. "Having said all that, I do expect a recovery in the latter part of this year, fueled in no small part by monetary 14 policy actions and fiscal 15 policy actions."

“很明显，我们的GDP增长幅度已经从去年的3%强，减少到今年的大约1%到1.5%。劳动力市场已经开始恶化。信贷危机对经济来说是一个非常大的问题.....尽管提出上述问题，我的确期待今年下半年会恢复增长，因为当局的货币政策变化和财政政策行动会起作用。”



Earlier this year, the federal government enacted 16 an economic stimulus 17 package that will provide most middle and low-income taxpayers 18 with a rebate 19 check, as well as tax relief to spur business investment. The Bush administration has also encouraged mortgage lenders to renegotiate loan terms with financially-strapped borrowers facing foreclosure on their homes.

今年早些时候，美国联邦政府执行了一个经济刺激的一揽子方案，帮助多数中等收入和低收入的纳税人，给他们退税，同时还会采用减免税务计划来刺激商业投资。布什政府也鼓励房屋贷款机构和那些资金周转困难、住房即将被没收的借贷人重新谈判贷款条件。



Across the United States, tens of thousands of homeowners have been forced out of their homes because, as their mortgages re-set at higher interest rates, they were unable to make the monthly payments.

在美国各地，数以万计的房主被迫离开自己的住宅，因为他们的房屋贷款被重新安排后的利率比较高，以至他们没有能力按月付款。



Some in Washington are calling for more aggressive action to strengthen government oversight 20 and regulation of the credit markets, not only to soften 21 the blow of the current crisis, but to stop the wholesale 22 issuing of risky 23 loans, blamed for the current mortgage mess.

华盛顿的一些人士呼吁采取更积极行动，加强政府对信贷市场的监督和管理，这样不仅可以减轻目前的危机的打击，还能够停止批发式的高风险贷款，这种贷款造成了目前的房贷市场乱像。



Democratic Senator Charles Schumer of New York says inaction by President Bush has made a bad economy worse.

查尔斯.舒默是来自纽约州的民主党参议员，他说，布什总统缺乏对应措施，结果使不良的经济雪上加霜。他说：



"Had the administration acted more proactively earlier, particularly about the housing crisis, when many of us were asking them to, we would not have gotten up to this point," he said.

“假如布什政府稍早能积极做拿出对应措施--特别是在房贷危机方面，我们很多人曾要求他们这样作--如果做了，我们就不会落到这种地步。”



Schumer was speaking on ABC's This Week program. But Republican Senator John Kyl of Arizona says Democrats 24 are far from blameless when it comes to America's housing and credit woes 25.

舒默是在美国广播公司叫作“本周”的节目上发表谈话的。来自亚利桑纳州的共和党参议员约翰.凯尔表示，谈到美国住房和信贷困境时，民主党人远远不是没有责任。



"Of course it was not the Bush administration as much as it was Democrats in Congress who were pushing the lending institutions to get out there and lend more money, even to unqualified buyers," said Kyl.

“布什政府和国会的民主党人当时都在努力推动贷款机构大力向外贷款，甚至贷款给那些不够资格的买主。”



In coming days, new economic data will be released on U.S. home sales, consumer spending, and the gross domestic product. The GDP figure could provide significant insight as to the severity of America's economic hardship.

未来几天，有关美国房屋销售、消费者支出、以及国内生产总值新的经济数据将会发布。GDP数据可以为美国经济困境的严重性提供重要的指标。