VOA双语新闻：美联储：今年经济可能收缩1.3%

　　World markets were mostly lower on Wednesday amid more dire 1 U.S. economic news and a move by Germany to facilitate bank nationalization. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up one-tenth of a percent, while other U.S. indexes were just slightly lower. The Tokyo exchange was nearly 1.5 percent lower, while the major European indexes lost less than one percent.

世界大部分股市星期三走低，与此同时，美国经济传出更加黯淡的消息，德国政府采取措施促使银行国有化。

One day after President Barack Obama signed the biggest stimulus 2 package in U.S. history, the scale of the challenges facing America's ailing 3 economy came into sharper focus.

美国总统奥巴马签署了美国历史上最大的经济刺激计划，使之成为法律的一天后，美国经济面临的巨大挑战显得十分明显。

The Federal Reserve, the nation's central bank, now projects U.S. unemployment will rise as high as 8.8 percent this year, while the economy could contract by as much as 1.3 percent, extending a recession that began more than a year ago.

美国联邦储备委员会--美国中央银行现在预测美国的失业率今年将上升到8.8%。经济可能会缩水1.3%， 一年多前开始的经济衰退会进一步延长。

In addition, the Fed reports that U.S. industrial production fell for a third consecutive 4 month in January, by 1.8 percent, a larger drop than most economists 6 had anticipated. The central bank also revised downward the figure previously 7 released for December 2008 was the worst year for American manufacturing in seven years.

除此之外， 美联储报告，美国工业产出一月份连续第三个月出现下跌，跌幅为1.8%，超过大部分经济学家先前的预测。中央银行还下调了先前公布的去年12月的工业产出的数据。2008年是7年来美国制造业面临的最糟糕的一年。

Meanwhile, the U.S. Commerce Department reported that new home construction plummeted 8 to an all-time low, down 17 percent in January from the previous month. Applications for building permits, an indicator 9 of future construction activity, also fell.

与此同时， 美国商务部报告， 新房建造率下降到最低点。 一月份新房建造比前一个月下降了17%。建房申请，也是未来建筑活动的指向标，也在下降。

President Obama says the housing slowdown is having a devastating 10 effect on the economy as a whole.

奥巴马总统说，房屋市场下跌对整个经济会产生灾难性的后果。

"Construction companies and home furnishing stores and painters and landscapers, they are all cutting back. The number of residential 11 construction jobs has fallen by more than a quarter million since mid-2006. As businesses lose revenue and people lose income, the tax base shrinks, which means less money for schools and police and fire departments," he said.

“建筑公司和装修商店、油漆工以及园艺工人，都在削减。2006年中期以来，居民房屋建设方面的工作下降了25万多个。企业收益缩减，老百姓收入减少，可征税基础缩小，这意味着学校、警察以及消防等其他各方的资金减少。”

Mr. Obama spoke 12 in Arizona on Wednesday, where he unveiled a program to reduce home foreclosures.

奥巴马星期三在亚利桑那州发表讲话，并推出了一个减少住房被没收的项目。

But not all economists see the steep decline in home construction as a bad thing, given the severely 13 depressed 14 state of America's housing market.

不过，由于美国住房市场处于严重低迷的状态中，所以并不是所有经济学家都认为住房建筑数量的急剧下跌是一件坏事。

Millions of home foreclosures combined with a continuing credit squeeze and a deteriorating 15 economy have led to a glut 16 of unsold houses on the market. Given massive inventory 17 surpluses, the last thing the market needs is an infusion 18 of newly-built dwellings 19, according to Diane Swonk, Chief Economist 5 at Chicago-based Mesirow Financial.

数百万幢住房被银行收回、信贷继续紧缩再加上恶化的经济状况导致市场上充斥着大量的未售出房屋。芝加哥麦斯洛金融公司的首席经济学家戴安娜·斯旺克认为，由于房屋库存量极大过剩，市场目前最不需要的就是大量新建房屋。

"The bad news is, it is very hard on builders who cannot get paid to build. The good news is that it is clearing the inventory of unsold homes. What we are doing is not adding insult to injury by putting more empty homes on the market," she said.

她说：“坏消息是，那些拿不到钱的建筑商很难去建房子。好消息是，这种情况可以逐渐清空积压的未售出房屋。我们在做的就是不再向市场推出更多的空房子，这样就不会把情况弄得更糟。”

Economists have been debating the likely effectiveness of President Obama's initiatives to prop 20 up the economy, aid homeowners and deal with the country's financial crisis.

奥巴马提出实施一些政府项目，以推动经济、帮助房屋所有人并解决美国的金融危机。经济学家们一直在对这些计划的有效性进行辩论。

More important than the details of any one provision of any one plan is whether, taken as a whole, the initiatives restore the nation's collective confidence, according to economist Mark Zandi of Moodys Economy.com.

穆迪经济网的经济学家赞迪认为，比任何一项计划中任何一个条款的内容更重要的是，从总体来说，这个措施能恢复整个国家的信心。

"The key aspect of all of this, to get the economy on more stable ground, is to try to restore confidence because we have in many respects lost faith in our economy," he said.

他说：“为了使经济更加稳定，所有这些措施中最重要的是要恢复人们的信心，因为人们在许多方面失去了对经济的信心。”

Earlier Wednesday, Germany's government agreed on a new provision that will allow it to nationalize private banks that are at risk of failing. The measure is the latest in a series of steps taken by governments and central banks around the world to rescue their banking 21 and financial sectors 22 in the wake of a global credit crisis.

星期三早些时候，德国政府通过一项允许政府把处于倒闭边缘的私有银行国有化的计划。在此之前，世界各国的政府和中央银行已经采取了一系列措施，力图在全球信贷危机中挽救自己的银行和金融业。