Analysts Discuss Yasser Arafat's Legacy

By Judith Latham

In this special report, Judith Latham discusses Mr. Arafat's legacy 1, the issue of succession, and the prospects 2 for progress toward peace and security with regional specialists.

Among the leaders of the Palestinian-American community, is physician Ziad Asali, president of the American Task Force on Palestine.

"Arafat is the only leader the Palestinians have known for several decades. He is the founder 4, the George Washington, of modern-day Palestine, and he is especially revered 5 as someone who made a singular contribution to the rebirth of Palestinian nationhood and the anticipation 6 of statehood. Having said that and remembering his many achievements, it is clear that the Palestinians have been going through very difficult times for the last few years. And a good share of the blame has been assigned to the leadership. Although it is a mixed feeling, it's too bad he did not live [long] enough to establish a state."

With the passing of Mr. Arafat's political influence, Dr. Asali says he sees some hope for the emergence 7 of a new Palestinian leadership that is more unified 8 than in the past:

"There will be competing parties to take over decision-making on the part of the Palestinians. This is a time for unity 3 for them, and they are all aware of that. It has been extremely impressive to those of us who watch the situation how the Palestinians have refrained from saying or doing anything that indicates division or conflict."

Dr. Asali also thinks that the new political reality in the Middle East may offer the Israeli government an opportunity to reassess the prospects for dialogue. And it may enable President Bush at the beginning of his second term to put greater pressure on both parties to negotiate.

"The most obvious thing is that it will take away the one card that made it possible for both the Israeli government and for the United States to say that there is no Palestinian partner," says Mr. Asali. "Whatever Palestinian leader emerges cannot be labeled as an unacceptable political partner, so it will have ramifications 9 for the whole process of disengagement from Gaza. It certainly will have ramifications for the relations between the Palestinian leadership and the United States."

"There are possible attractive alternatives in the Palestinian leadership for a dialogue with the United States. And if those elements take over, it certainly would be easier for the Palestinians to negotiate their fate with the American administration that would have influence on the Israeli partner."

Aaron David Miller 10, a former senior State Department adviser 11 for Arab-Israeli negotiations 12, has served six U.S. administrations. He is now president of Seeds of Peace, a grassroots organization that prepares Israeli and Arab teenagers with leadership skills need it to promote peace and coexistence. Mr. Miller says he believes that history's judgment 13 on Yasser Arafat will be a mixed one:

"On the one hand, he will receive enormous credit as the individual embodiment of Palestinian nationalism, the man who essentially 14 put the Palestinians on the political map and brought a divided, decentralized movement into the mainstream 15 of international politics. On the other hand, I think history will judge him unkindly in that he never really made the transition from revolutionary Diaspora leader, capable of leading quite skillfully a divided national movement, into a position of leadership where he was able to create the foundation of good governance and smart negotiations.

"And I think emblematic 16 of that fact is the period of July 2000 to December 2000 when, rather than putting a counter-offer on the table, which might have created follow up for negotiations with Mr. Barak at Camp David and with President Clinton, he chose to cling to the notion that Palestinians needed 100 percent."

Aaron Miller says, as a statesman, Yasser Arafat does not compare favorably with either Nelson Mandela or David Ben-Gurion, for example.

"It may well be that the circumstances confronting the Palestinian people were tougher. But leadership is leadership, and it requires vision, and it requires courage, and it requires sometimes an enormous capacity to risk. And while Mr. Arafat was willing to take that risk during the initial phases of the Oslo process, he wasn't able and willing to do it toward the end of his life," says Mr. Miller.

With respect to the Palestinian leader's successor and the emergence of a Palestinian state, Mr. Miller says, the future is unclear, although there are some guidelines:

"The basic law provides for a transitional mechanism 17 for succession to Mr. Arafat within 60 days after the death or incapacitation of the Palestinian Authority executive. The speaker of the Palestinian Legislative 18 Council should emerge as an interim 19 successor, pending 20 elections. Now, I don't think there will be elections over the near term. And as a consequence, you are going to have a variation, which is already taking place.

"Abu Ala, who is currently Prime Minister, will assume responsibilities for running the Palestinian Authority, finances and security mainly. Abu Mazen, Secretary-General of the PLO and one of Arafat's senior colleagues over the last 30 or 40 years and involved in Fatah politics, will take over the PLO's Executive Committee and probably Fatah as an organization. That is the formal succession process."

Ambassador Phil Wilcox, the former U.S. Chief of Mission in Jerusalem, says the best way to ensure a permanent successor, who has respect and legitimacy 21, would be for the Palestinians to hold elections. Ambassador Wilcox, who is now president of the Foundation for Middle East Peace, says preliminary steps have already been taken.

"Indeed, they want elections, and Arafat had agreed to the beginning of an election process. Registration 22 is already taking place. I don't know who would be elected if there is an election," says Mr. Wilcox. "There are younger Palestinian leaders. There are people like Mohammed Dahlan, in Gaza. There is Jib, Ril Rajoub, who is one of the security chiefs. There is Marwan Barghouti, who is now in jail. No one could predict who might win, but an election would be important because it would give a real mandate 23 to lead and a legitimacy that no other Palestinian has. Whether even an elected prime minister could halt the violence is problematical. Because unless there is a corresponding move on the Israeli side, it would be hard for any Palestinian leader to crack down on all of these dissident, fractious, and violent elements."

But the main problem of succession, Aaron Miller believes, is that Mr. Arafat dominated the Palestinian national movement for more than 50 years with more authority and more international weight than any Palestinian has now or is likely to have for the foreseeable future.

"Therein lies the real challenge. I would argue there is no identifiable or immediate 24 replacement 25 for Mr. Arafat. And that leaves open the real possibility that to empower his successors, once they are chosen and legitimized by the Palestinian public, will require enormous help and support from the government of Israel and a much different character to an American role in the Israeli-Palestinian problem," says Mr. Miller.

According to Aaron Miller, it is questionable 26 how much impetus 27 the Sharon government has to do business with Mr. Arafat's successor, even if he were a political moderate:

"My rule of thumb is to never pray for anything you really don't want. And the Israelis seem to have prayed - at least some Israelis prayed - for Arafat's passing. And they have it. The question is what are they going to do with it. In my view, they have a critical role in strengthening this Palestinian partner. The only game in town right now is Gaza first. And it has to be unmistakably clear, it seems to me, that 'Gaza first' is not 'Gaza last.'"

"That in effect the Israeli initiative moves from a unilateral focus to a bilateral 28 one. A Palestinian partner emerges, the Israelis negotiate a comprehensive withdrawal 29 from Gaza, the Palestinians have their security responsibilities, but it has to go beyond that. I think this process has to be linked to withdrawals 30 on the West Bank, tied to the broader issue of the Road Map or at least progress toward a two-state solution. The Israelis could take many steps economically, assuming the Palestinian Authority is willing to do what it needs to do, in an effort to relieve pressure on the Palestinian street and strengthen a new Palestinian Authority."

But most critical to any improvement in Israeli-Palestinian relations at this juncture 31, former State Department advisor 32 Aaron Miller says, is the role of the U.S. government.

"The Americans, it seems to me, have to change the nature of their involvement over the past four years. I believe a case can be made that a second Bush administration could be very well positioned to do that," says Mr. Miller, "Number one, it has tremendous currency in the bank with Israel. Number two, I think we will begin to disengage from Iraq over the course of the next 18 months. And as we disengage from Iraq, we're going to be looking for issues on which to reengage - issues that have real resonance 33 in the region."

"And there is no issue, frankly 34, that has great resonance that Israeli-Palestinian peace. And finally, a second Bush administration is freed from most of the constraints 35 of reelection politics. So, to summarize, you've got three factors that are coming together right now."

It remains 36 to be seen whether the death of Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat can truly serve as a catalyst 37 for improved relations in the Middle East and for a greater U.S. role in peacemaking.

I'm Judith Latham in Washington.

注释：
task force （军）特遣部队
singular 非凡的
nationhood 作为一个国家的地位
emergence 浮现，露出
unified 统一的
take over 接收，接管
refrain from 制止，控制
reassess 再估价，再评价
unacceptable 不受欢迎的
ramification 分支
disengagement 脱离
grassroots 基层，基层群众
coexistence 共存
embodiment 体现
decentralized 分散的
emblematic 象征性，标记的
cling to 依附，依靠
transitional 过渡期的
mechanism 机制
incapacitation 无资格
pending 未决的
Jerusalem 耶路撒冷
preliminary 预备的，初步的
mandate 委任托管权
crack down on 制裁，镇压
dissident 持不同政见者
foreseeable 可预知的
legitimize 宣布合法化
impetus 推动力，促进
unilateral 单边的
bilateral 双边的
resonance 反响
catalyst 催化剂