经济学人91:香港金融 顺势而为

 Hong Kong's finances香港金融Going with the flow顺势而为Exposure to China is rising but the biggest risk comes from America与中国大陆的接触增多，但最大风险来自美国IF INVESTORS 1 are worried about the cloud of political uncertainty 2 looming 3 over Hong Kong, they have a curious way of showing it. Over the past five weeks, as a rancorous debate over the city's democratic future spilled onto its streets, there has been a flood of demand for its currency. The territory's de facto central bank, committed to a 31-year-old dollar peg 4, bought the $9 billion that streamed its way, to prevent the exchange rate from rising.

如果投资者担心政治上不确定的乌云笼罩着香港，他们会用一种奇怪的方式表现出来。在过去的五周里，大街小巷都在针锋相对地谈论关于这座城市的民主前景，也因此产生了大量对货币的需求。香港实质上的央行，在和美元挂钩的31个年头里，给香港带来了90亿美元的热钱，也借此防止汇率上升。
香港金融.jpgExplaining the sudden influx 5, Hong Kong's authorities pointed 6 to technical factors such as dividend 7 payments and mergers 8 that had forced companies to buy the currency in bulk. But animal spirits were also part of the mix. An exchange-traded fund that tracks Chinese equities 9 reported record inflows as punters chased China's still-rapid growth.
对于出现的资金突然涌入现象，香港当局解释说，例如股息支付和并购的技术因素会要求公司大量购入货币，这也因此导致了资金的突然涌入。但是动物精神也有是综合原因中的一部分。当投机者在市场中竞逐中国依旧保持的高速增长，追踪中国股市的ETF基金的资金流入量也刷新了记录。
And then came an intriguing 10 Vladimir Putin effect. Wary 11 of financial sanctions over the Ukraine conflict, Russian companies, including OAO MegaFon, a mobile-phone operator, and Norilsk Nickel, a metals producer, moved some of their cash reserves into Hong Kong dollars—where, they believe, their money will be more insulated from American pressure.
另一个原因就是普京的影响。因为担心乌克兰冲突会引发金融制裁，包括移动电话运营商OAO MegaFon和金属制造商Norilsk Nickel在内的许多俄罗斯公司都把他们的现金储蓄转成了港币。他们相信在这里，他们的钱会越发远离美国施加的压力。
A common thread runs through both the politics and the economics. The uneasy balance that has fuelled Hong Kong's protests is the same thing that has made its financial system so attractive to global businesses and investors: the city boasts deep connections to China within a decidedly non-Chinese framework. Hong Kong is the best place for foreign investors to buy Chinese shares and bonds or lend to Chinese companies. It offers a wider choice of Chinese assets than anywhere else outside the mainland. In Hong Kong, unlike the mainland, investors are protected by a mature legal system and can move money in and out, unimpeded by capital controls.
在政治经济领域有一个普遍的思路。香港以一种具有决定性因素的非中国式的框架和中国保持着着紧密的联系，这种不稳定的平衡一方面加剧了香港的抗议，另一方面也让全球企业家和投资者对香港的金融系统趋之若鹜。对于外国投资者来说，香港是购买中国股票和债券，或借钱给中国企业的最佳地点。相比于中国大陆，香港为他们提供了前所未有的广泛选择中国资产的机会，并且香港还有一个成熟的法律制度来保护他们的资金出入，保持资本控制的畅通。
For Russians keen to dodge 12 sanctions, the Chinese-but-not-Chinese character of Hong Kong is also the big draw. Thanks to its peg, the Hong Kong dollar is a direct substitute for the American one. Yet the Chinese banks at which the Russians deposit their cash are seen as strong enough to resist Washington's lawmakers.
由于俄罗斯人基于逃避制裁，拥有中国市场而非中国监管机制的的这种特质使香港对国际资本非常具有吸引力。因为人民币同美元挂钩，港币就成为了美元的直接替代品。然而，俄罗斯人在中国银行存储的现金被视为足以抵抗华盛顿议员。
It is certainly not the first time that Hong Kong has had to defend its peg. With the currency allowed to float within a range of HK$7.75-7.85 per US dollar, inflows have regularly tested the strong side of the band in recent years. The Hong Kong Monetary 13 Authority has met the challenge and absorbed the incoming cash. Hedge funds have no appetite for taking it on. Until the yuan is freely convertible 14, which may not happen for years, the dollar peg looks safe.
当然，这不是香港第一次必须维持这种挂钩。在1美元可兑换7.75-7.85港币的浮动区间内，近年来资本的流入对此波段中的高点形成考验。香港金融管理局已经遇到了挑战并且已经开始吸收流入的现金。对冲基金根本不想吃进这笔热钱。直到人民币能够自由兑换，虽然这在多年内可能不会发生，和美元挂钩的汇率制度看起来很安全。
Yet this picture of stability is changing as Hong Kong is drawn 15 more closely into China's economic orbit. One-tenth of deposits in its banking 16 system are now denominated in yuan, up from less than 1% five years ago. Loans to Chinese corporate 17 borrowers now account for one-fifth of Hong Kong bank assets, up from 5% in 2007. This change has led some to conclude that the territory's links to China are becoming an economic liability rather than a selling-point. Moody's, a credit-rating agency, has given Hong Kong banks a “negative outlook”—a warning that it may downgrade them. The IMF has warned of spillovers from a Chinese slowdown.
然而随着香港和中国经济的关系日益紧密，汇率稳定性也在不断发生变化。现在香港金融管理局有10%的储蓄是以人民币计价的，而在5年以前仅有不到1%是人民币。给中国公司贷款的金额占香港银行资产的20%，而在2007年还不到5%。有人评论说，和中国大陆的领土连结现在已经由卖点变成了经济上的债务关系，而这种改变并不是好事。一家信用评级机构穆迪已经给了香港银行“负面展望”—警告说他们可能会降低香港银行的信用等级。国际货币基金组织也警告说这有可能是中国经济衰退的溢出效应。
But if Hong Kong has one foot more firmly planted in China than before, it still has the other foot very much in the torrent 18 of global capital flows. It is this non-China side of the picture that is the pressing concern. With its currency peg, Hong Kong has no choice but to import monetary policy set by the Federal Reserve according to America's needs. Five years of exceptionally low interest rates have turbocharged Hong Kong's banks by making it cheaper to borrow the money they go on to lend.
但是如果香港一方面已经更坚定地要立足中国，它另一方面还得忍受全球资本流动的冲击。二者相比，非中国的那一面显得更加紧迫。因为采取和美元挂钩的汇率制度，香港除了遵循美联储根据美国需要所制定的货币政策之外，别无他法。过去5年特别低的汇率已经通过再降低借款利率的方式来向香港银行增压。
Last year's “taper tantrum”, when investors fretted 19 about a rise in American interest rates, provided a taste of how cash flows into Hong Kong can easily turn to outflows. More than China's growth, Russian sanctions or Hong Kong's own politics, the Federal Reserve will have the biggest hand in shaping Hong Kong's financial fortunes in the coming months.
当投资者还在担心美元汇率上升的时候，去年的“锥发脾气”已经为现金便捷地在香港流入流出提供了可能。在今后的几个月了，美联储将超过中国增长、俄罗斯制裁、或是香港自身的政策，成为香港金融财富的最大推手。