经济学人93:欧元区经济 周期性萧条

 The euro-zone economy欧元区经济Cyclical stagnation周期性萧条The recovery grinds to a halt复苏放缓THIS week's figures for the euro-zone economy were dispiriting by any measure. An already feeble and faltering 1 recovery has stumbled. Output across the euro area was flat in the second quarter. That followed a poor start to the year when the single-currency club managed to grow by just 0.2%.

无论怎么看，欧元区本周的经济数据都是令人失望的，疲软脆弱的复苏已经摇摇欲坠。第二季度欧元区的GDP增长速度为零，而在此之前的第一季度，这个单一货币组织仅仅实现了0.2%的增长。
There were some bright spots in the bulletin of misery 2. Both the Dutch and Portuguese 3 economies, which had contracted in the first quarter, rebounded 4, growing by 0.5% and 0.6% respectively. Spanish growth picked up from 0.4% in the first quarter to 0.6% in the second. But these perky performances were overshadowed by the poor figures recorded in the three biggest economies. Italy, the third largest, had already reported a decline of 0.2%, pushing it into a triple-dip recession. France, the second biggest, continued to stagnate 5. But the real blow came from Germany, the powerhouse of the euro zone, where output slipped by 0.2%.
在整个欧元区的阴霾中仍有几缕阳光。荷兰和葡萄牙继第一季度的经济萎缩后，在第二季度有所反弹，增长率分别达到0.5%和0.6%。西班牙的经济增速也从第一季度的0.4%攀升到第二季度的0.6%。然而，这些姣好的成绩被欧元区中最大的三个国家的经济数据冲淡了。意大利，欧元区的第三大经济体，已经公布了0.2%的衰退，这使得意大利陷入了自2008年经济危机以来的第三个衰退期。法国，欧元区的第二大经济体，其经济增长仍然保持停滞。但是最致命的一击来自德国，作为欧元区的驱动机，其GDP下滑了0.2%。
欧元区经济.jpgThe setback 6 may reflect some temporary factors, as workers took extra time off after public holidays. German output was also depressed 7 by a fall in construction, some of which had been brought forward to the first quarter thanks to warm weather. This effect should also be temporary. However, the tensions between Europe and Russia over Ukraine and the resulting sanctions may adversely 8 affect German growth in the coming months.
这次衰退可能反映了一些时事问题，比如工人罢工。德国的萧条部分是因为建筑业的下滑，由于气候原因一些工程已经被提前到第一季度实施。这些因素都是暂时的。然而，欧盟和俄罗斯在乌克兰事件上紧张关系，以及由此产生的制裁可能在未来一段时间内对德国的经济增长有不利影响。
The new GDP figures are yet more evidence that the euro-zone economy is in a bad way, not least since it has come to rely so heavily upon Germany, which had grown by 0.7% in the first quarter. It is not only that growth is evaporating; inflation is also extraordinarily 9 low. In July it was only 0.4%, far below the target of just below 2% set by the European Central Bank (ECB). Consistently low inflation has prompted fears that Europe will soon slide into deflation. Prices are already falling in Spain and three other euro-zone countries.
新的GDP数据还表明，欧元区经济增长呈现颓势，尤其是它对德国强烈的依赖--德国在第一季度的增速为0.7%。经济恶化不仅是因为这个增长速度已经不复存在了，还因为极低的通胀水平。七月份的通胀水平仅为0.4%，远远低于欧洲中央银行（ECB）设立的略低于2%的目标。持续的低通胀水平让人担忧欧洲可能即将进入通货紧缩期。西班牙以及其他三个欧元区国家的物价早已经开始下降了。
Deflation would be particularly grave for the euro area because both private and public debt is so high in many of the 18 countries that share the single currency. Even if inflation is positive but stays low it hurts debtors 10, as their incomes rise more slowly than they expected when they borrowed. If deflation were to set in, the effects would be worse still: when prices and wages fall, debts, which do not shrink, become harder to repay.
通货紧缩对于欧元区是非常严重的，因为在使用单一货币的18个国家中，私人债务和公共债务大都相当繁重。即使是偏低的正水平通胀也会伤害到债务人，因为他们收入的增长要比借债时候的预期慢。如果通货紧缩真的到来，其影响将会很糟糕：当物价和工资都降低了，债务却并不同时缩减，因此偿还债务变得更加困难。
The poor GDP figures will intensify 11 pressure on the ECB to do more. Already in June it lowered its main borrowing rate to just 0.15% and became the first big central bank to introduce negative interest rates, in effect charging banks for deposits they leave with it. That has helped bring short-term, wholesale 12 interest rates close to zero and has also weakened the euro. Both these effects will help to bolster 13 the economy and restore growth.
低靡的GDP数据将迫使欧洲央行(ECB)采取更多的措施。早在今年六月，就将基准利率低到了0.15%，成为引进负利率的第一大央行，实际上对银行存留的资金收取利息。这项举措使得短期大额利率接近零，同时欧元走弱。这两种效应都有助于经济复苏。
As well as these interest-rate cuts, the ECB announced that it would lend copiously 14 to banks for as long as four years, as long as they pledged to improve their own lending performance to the private sector 15. The plan, which resembles the Bank of England's “funding for lending” scheme, has some merit but may not boost lending as much as expected due to the feeble state of the banks. It will also take a long time to work its way through the economy.
除了降息之外，ECB申明，四年内，只要商业银行保证增加对私有部门的信贷，央行将提供充足的资金。类似英格兰银行的“融资换贷款计划”，这个计划已经小有成效，但是由于银行本身元气已伤，其促进贷款的效果可能不如设想中的那么好。并且，这几个计划从开始实行到发挥作用需要很长一段时间。
The ECB's critics say that this is not enough and urge the central bank to introduce quantitative 16 easing—creating money to buy financial assets. The ECB is likely to hold off; it seems to consider QE as a weapon of last resort. For his part Mario Draghi, the central bank's president, urges countries like Italy and France to get on with structural 17 reforms that would improve their underlying 18 growth potential. Patience on all sides is wearing thin.
欧洲央行的批评者认为这些措施并不够，并且他们要求央行推出量化宽松政策--创造货币来购买金融资产。ECB的态度是尽可能延缓推出QE，在它看来，QE是最后的武器。央行行长马里奥·德拉吉就此发表了言论，他鼓励意大利、法国等国家继续进行结构化改革以提高其经济增长的潜力。各方人士对欧元区经济复苏都已迫不及待。