经济学人70:中国的资产管理公司

 　　Asset-management companies in China

　　中国的资产管理公司
　　Lipstick 1 on a pig
　　看上去很美
　　China is still dealing 2 with the mess left by previous bank bail-outs
　　中国仍在收拾银行金援留下的烂摊子
　　Aug 24th 2013 | SHANGHAI |From the print edition
　　NEWS surfaced this week that Cinda, an asset-management company (AMC) created during China’s last round of banking 3 bail-outs, is talking to bankers about a stockmarket flotation. That raises an intriguing 4 question: how would the Chinese government handle its next banking crisis? If experience is a guide, it will be through a combination of enormous injections of public money, the creation of complicated structures and the obfuscation 5 of data.
　　本周新闻，创建于中国上轮银行金援期间的资产管理公司信达正在对话银行家，讨论发行股票。这引起了一个有趣的问题：中国政府如何处理下一次银行危机呢？如果以经验为指导，中国政府会通过注入大量的公共资金，创造复杂体系，模糊处理银行数据等一系列措施。
　　In the 1990s the government shut down many inefficient 6 state-owned enterprises (SOEs). That forced banks to acknowledge loans to those entities 7 as duds. Non-performing loan (NPL) ratios soared, so officials engineered an elaborate bail-out. Central Huijin, an SOE capitalised by the central bank and finance ministry 8, put money into the banks. On one estimate, these equity 9 infusions 10 topped $150 billion.
　　上世纪90年代，中国政府关闭许多低效率的国企。这使得银行被迫接受贷给关闭国企的贷款作废。不良贷款率陡升，于是官方启动了复杂的金援。由央行和财政部注资成立的中央汇金向银行注入资金。据估计，这些企业注资高达1500亿美元。
　　NPLs were hived off into four new AMCs: Huarong, China Orient, China Great Wall and Cinda. From 1999 to 2004 loans worth over 2 trillion yuan ($242 billion) were transferred. Though mostly bad, the loans were usually sold at full face value. They were paid for with ten-year bonds, backed by the finance ministry, that the AMCs issued to the big state-owned banks. But since most NPLs failed to recover in that time, these bonds were extended another decade. In short, the bail-out is still going on.
　　不良贷款被分离成了四个新的资产管理公司，分别是华融，中国东方，中国长城和信达。从1999年到2004年，超过两万亿元人民币（2420亿美元）的贷款被转让。尽管大部分是不良贷款，然而这些贷款通常是以全额票面价值卖掉。它们在财政部的支持下以十年期债券的形式卖掉，这些资产管理公司将其发行给大型国有银行。但是因为当时大多数的不良贷款无法偿还，这些债券又延期十年。总之，金援还在继续。
　　What the AMCs have done with their assets is unclear, as they have not released proper accounts. Some NPLs have been sold but reportedly at only 20% of face value. To deal with the resulting cash crunch 11, Cinda sold bonds to the finance ministry. Anne Stevenson-Yang of J Capital, a research firm, observes that these bonds have since been wiped clean from its balance-sheet without any explanation for where they went: “The AMCs seem to be virtual holding-tanks where the debt doesn’t stay and doesn’t depart either.” Some think they may be insolvent 12.
　　这些资产管理公司用他们的资产做了什么不得而知，因为他们没有公布资产账户。一些不良贷款被出售，但是据报只有面值的20%。为了解决资金短缺，信达将债券卖给了财政部。调查公司J Capital的Anne Stevenson-Yang评论说，这些债券已经在没有对去向做出任何解释的情况下从资产负债表中抹去了。这些资产管理公司实质上似乎是掩盖债务的幌子，债务既不在这些公司也没有分发。一些人认为这些公司资不抵债了。
　　That hasn’t stopped the AMCs expanding into other areas. They have gobbled up small banks and expanded into fund management, broking, commodities trading and insurance. Cynics speculate that all this has been done to give an illusion of rounded prosperity, perhaps as a prelude 13 to a wave of public offerings.
　　这没有让这些资产管理公司停下扩张的脚步。他们吞并了小型银行，，将业务扩展到基金管理，经纪业，商品交易和保险业。怀疑者推测所有这些都是都是全面繁荣的假想，或许是一波公开发行股票行动的前奏。
　　In preparation for Cinda’s flotation on the Hong Kong exchange, the government poured 15 billion yuan into the firm in 2010 as it became a joint-stock company. Another 10 billion yuan was invested in it last year by strategic investors 14 (including Standard Chartered, UBS and Citic Capital, a private-equity firm). Huarong is also rumoured 15 to be seeking strategic investors, ahead of a possible listing next year.
　　为了准备信达在香港股市上市，政府在2010年向该公司注资150亿元人民币成立合资公司。去年包括渣打，瑞银集团和私募股权公司中国中信在内的战略投资者去年向信达投资了100亿元人民币。也有谣言称华融也正在寻找战略投资者，争取明年上市。
　　Why now? With loans soaring and bad debts likely to follow suit (see chart), Chinese officials realise that the next banking crisis may be near. They may well be hoping to lure 16 in fresh investors, to draw a line under previous bail-outs and raise capital for new ones. Huarong and Cinda now claim to make profits, but given their murky 17 accounts, that is hard to verify. A headline in the South China Morning Post sounded this warning: “China’s insolvent toxic-waste dump Cinda for sale”.
　　为什么是现在呢？随着贷款的增加，坏账可能随之而来（见表），中国政府意识到下一次银行危机可能不远了。他们可能希望吸引新的投资者，与上次的金援划清界限，为新的金援募集资金。华融和信达现在宣称在盈利，但是鉴于他们含糊的账户，这一说法难以证实。南华早报的头条发出警告：无力偿还债务的坏账回收站信达待售。