经济学人46:新的资金流向 New rivers of gold

 　　Finance and Economics；New rivers of gold;Remittances 2 from unlikely places are helping 3 poor countries in the downturn;

　　财经；新的资金流向；意外的汇款在经济低迷时帮助贫困国家；
　　In tapachula, a furnace of a city in southern Mexico, people line up inside an air-conditioned branch of Banco Azteca to process their remittances. Last year Mexicans received an estimated $24 billion from friends and family working abroad, mainly in the United States, with which Mexico forms the world's busiest remittance 1 corridor (see map). But a closer look at the Tapachulan queue shows how the remittance business is changing. Many are not Mexicans receiving cash from America, but migrant workers sending it back home to Guatemala or Honduras. “Very similar to what happens at the other border,” observes Jorge Luis Valdivieso, the bank's regional administrator 4, referring to Mexico's better-known northern frontier.
　　他伯拉在墨西哥南部一个火炉区域，这里的大部分人阿紫别克银行的一个有空调的房间内排队处理他们的汇款。去年墨西哥人从海外朋友和家人那里得到大约240亿美元，大部分来自美国，为此墨西哥成了世界上最防盲的汇款渠道（如地图）。但是近距离观察塔帕丘拉的长队发现汇款业务怎么变化。大部分不是墨西哥人从美国得到现金，而是移民工人汇回他们的家乡危地马拉和洪都拉斯。“这与另一边的边境发生的情况很相似，”Jorge Luis Valdivieso说，这个银行的区域行政长官，指的是墨西哥著名的北部边境地区。
　　The value of remittances to poor countries is enormous. Since 1996 they have been worth more than all overseas-development aid, and for most of the past decade more than private debt and portfolio 5 equity 6 inflows. In 2011 remittances to poor countries totalled $372 billion, according to the World Bank (total remittances, including to the rich world, came to $501 billion). That is not far off the total amount of foreign direct investment that flowed to poor countries. Given that cash is ferried home stuffed into socks as well as by wire transfer, the real total could be 50% higher.
　　这些汇款的价值对于贫穷国家来说是巨大的。自从1996年其价值已经超过了所有的海外发展救助资金，并且对于过去的十年来说其价值超过了私人债券和股票的流入。在2011年汇向贫穷国家的总额已经达到3720亿美元，根据世界银行的统计（总汇款，包括流向富裕国家的，已经达到5010亿美元）。这与流向贫穷国家的总的外资直接投资相差不远。这些钱可能通过装在袜子里偷渡回家或通过电汇到家，真实总额可能要高出50%。
　　Remittances are not just big, but growing—they have nearly quadrupled since the turn of the millennium—and resilient. In 2009, when economies around the world crashed, remittances to poor countries fell by a modest 5%, and by 2010 had bounced back to record levels. By contrast, foreign direct investment in poor countries fell by a third during the crisis, and portfolio inflows fell by more than half. “The most remarkable 7 thing about remittances today is their continued growth, year after year, despite the global economic crisis,” says Dilip Ratha, head of migration 8 and remittances at the World Bank.
　　这些汇款不仅数量大，而且不断增长并且有弹性，在千禧年左右汇款增加了量增加了四倍。在2009年，世界经济下滑的时候，汇向贫穷国家的钱稍微下降了5%，并且到了2010年这有反弹到历史水平。相反，在经济危机期间外资直接向贫穷国家的投资下降了三成，证券投资流入下贱了一半。“尽管世界经济危机的今天汇款最大的特点就是其数量年复一年的增长，”Dilip Ratha说，世界银行移民和汇款长官。
　　One reason for this apparent boom is simply that the data are better. Money senders such as Western Union and MoneyGram have improved their reporting to central banks. Oversight 9 has tightened 10 since September 11th 2001. This has led to big jumps in some numbers: Nigeria posted a near-doubling of remittance receipts in 2007. Where governments are sensitive about providing information, economists 11 have used other methods. India, for instance, subjects remittances to Bangladesh to stringent 12 tests. But by examining migration data, the World Bank reckons that some $3.8 billion probably crosses the border every year.
　　明显增长的一个原因是数据更容易得到了。汇款邮寄公司譬如西部联合公司和速汇金公司已经提高其对中央银行的上报。自从2001年9月11日起已经加强了监管力度这导致汇款大数量的增加，尼日利亚报告2007年汇款收入将近翻了一番。 那些政府对上报信息敏感的地方，经济学家已经采取了其他的方法。比如印度对于汇向孟加拉国的汇款进行严厉的检查。但是通过检查银民数据，世界银行预计每年有38亿美元穿越边境线。
　　Partly thanks to these techniques, it is now known that remittances come from a wider variety of countries than was previously 13 thought. This might in turn explain how they have avoided being affected 14 by Wall Street's hiccups 15. In 1970 46% of recorded remittances were reckoned to originate in America. By 2010 America's share was just 17%. One big new player is the Gulf 16, which has sucked in migrant workers since the oil boom. Saudi Arabia is now the world's biggest sender of remittances after America, posting $27 billion in 2010, mostly to the families of South Asians and Africans who toil 17 on its building sites and clean its homes. More than half of all remittances to South Asia come from the Gulf; worldwide, the region sends almost as many remittances to poor countries as western Europe does.
　　部分归因于这些技术，现在知道汇款比以前认为的来自更多的更大范围的国家。这也可以解释为什么他们能够不受华尔街震荡的影响。在1970年46%有源可查的汇款来自美国。到2010年美国的份额只占了17%。一个新的大玩家来自海湾地区，自从石油经济暴增吸引了大批的移民工人。现在沙特阿拉伯是自美国之后最大的汇款输出国，在2010年寄出了270亿美元，大部人到了南亚和非洲家庭中，他们用这些钱整理房屋清理房间。所有的汇款中超过一半是从海湾地区邮寄到南亚地区的；世界范围内，这些地区向贫穷地区送出的汇款大致与西欧国家持平。
　　Expensive oil has made Russia a big destination for immigrants, too. In 2000 it was only the 17th-biggest remitter 18 in the world—indeed, it was a net receiver. But by 2010 it was the fourth-largest sender, dispatching nearly $19 billion, mostly to Central Asia. Remittances from Russia are worth more than a fifth of Tajikistan's economy (see chart).
　　高昂的石油价格也俄罗斯成为一个巨大的移民输入地。在2000年的时候它实际上只是世界第十七位汇款输出国，他是净输入国。到了2010年它是第四大输出国，输送了大概190亿美元，大部分输送到中亚地区。来自俄罗斯的汇款相当于塔吉克斯坦整个经济的六倍（见图表）
　　Though they are less volatile 19 than many types of income, remittances are not immune to fluctuations 20. Cash flows to Mexico last year were still 12% lower than their pre-crash peak, partly because many Mexican migrants worked in the American construction sector 21, which is still reeling. The “Arab spring” of 2011 made a dent 22 in remittance receipts in the Middle East and Africa, as migrant workers from the region fled countries such as Libya. An exception was Egypt, where receipts shot up by 14%. One reason may be that exiled Egyptians returned home with their savings 23; another is that a fall in property prices encouraged émigrés to snap up bargains.
　　尽管并不像大部分类型的收入，汇款并不受经济波动的影响。去年流入墨西哥的现金仍然比以前的最大值少了12%，部分死因为墨西哥裔移民大部分在美国建筑部门工作，这些仍在倒退中。在“阿拉伯之春”的2011年中东和非洲地区外汇收入下降了，因为移民工逃离一些国家例如利比亚。埃及一个例外，其进款猛增了14%。一部分原因是流亡的埃及人带着他们的储蓄回到家乡；另一个原因是物价下降鼓励一民工抢购廉价物品。
　　Currency fluctuations can also skew remittance patterns. American greenbacks and euros are no longer sought after in those African countries where currencies have appreciated sharply in real terms thanks to demand for the commodities they export. “When you send dollars back to a family in Angola, they don't feel as rich as before,” says Marcelo Giugale of the World Bank. Working in Europe for five years no longer buys a house back home.
　　现期的货币波动可能影响汇款模式。美元和欧元再不是非洲国家追逐的对象了。这些地区的货币急剧升值这归因于对他们出口商品需求的增加，“当你送回美元到阿格拉家庭中的时候，他们不会像以前那样感到富有。”来自世界银行的Marcelo Giugale 说，在欧洲工作5年再也不能在家乡购买一套房子了。
　　The question is whether migrants will react by spending longer in far-flung destinations, or by staying closer to home. Many already go for the second option: one-tenth of remittances to Africa come from within the continent. South Africa sends most of its $1.4 billion in remittances to its neighbours, for example.
　　问题是这些移民是否愿意为长远的目标做出反映，或者呆在家里。很多人已经选择第二个选择了：十分之一汇向非洲国家的汇款来自欧洲国家。例如，南非已汇款形式想起邻邦输送1亿美元。
　　In the rich world, many countries have closed their borders to protect home-grown workers. America has made its southern frontier harder to cross, which partly explains the slowdown in immigration from Mexico. Emigration has risen, too, since the economy stalled. But perhaps because they know it will be harder to come back, migrants are staying longer. According to the Pew Hispanic Centre, 27% of Mexicans deported 24 from America in 2010 had been in the country for at least a year, up from 6% in 2005. That may help explain why remittances from America fell by only 5% in 2009, whereas in Britain, which has open borders with some of its biggest senders of immigrants, they fell by 27% (exchange rates played a part, too). Stricter border controls keep migrants in as well as out, and the remittances flowing.
　　在富裕国家，很多国家已经关闭器边境以保护其本土的工人，美国已经使其南部边境线变得更难穿越，这部分说明了墨西哥汇款的降低。自从经济失速以后移民处境也增加了，但是可能因为他们知道回去更困难的，移民呆的时间更长了。根据裔研究中心的报告2010年27%被驱逐出境的墨西哥人至少在美国带了一年，甚至有6%自2005年就在了。那可以帮助解释为什么2009年来自美国的汇款仅仅下降了5%，然而在柏林，这个与其汇款输送人所在国家开放边境的下降了27%（汇率起了也起了一定的作用），严格的边境控制使得移民进出保持相对不变，和汇款上升。