经济学人49:油价 Oil prices: Keeping it to themselves

 　　Saudi Arabia, the only OPEC member with enough spare capacity to make up supply shortfalls, is the best hope of keeping the market stable. The Saudis recently reiterated 1 their pledge to keep the market well supplied as American and European Union sanctions hit Iran. Over time, other producers in the Persian Gulf 2 may be able to pump more. Iraq—and Iran itself—have vast oilfields that could eventually provide markets with millions more barrels a day (b/d). All this is conventional wisdom.

　　石油输出国组织成员，沙特阿拉伯是最有余力来弥补原油供应不足的国家，也是最有希望维持石油市场稳定的国家。最近，在美国与欧洲联手制裁，打击伊朗期间，沙特人重申了他们将对石油市场提供足够补给量的诺言。随着时间的推移，其他一些波斯湾地区的原油生产国将能够生产更多的原油。伊拉克，以及伊朗其自身都拥有广阔的油田，他们能够每天向市场提供多于上百万桶的原油，而这一切都是为世人所共知的。
　　Yet these calculations do not take account of the region's growing thirst for its own oil. Between 2000 and 2010 China increased its consumption of oil more than any other country, by 4.3m b/d, a 90% jump. It now gets through more than 10% of the world's oil. More surprising is the country that increased its consumption by the second-largest increment 3: Saudi Arabia, which upped its oil-guzzling by 1.2m b/d. At some 2.8m b/d, it is now the world's sixth-largest consumer, getting through more than a quarter of its 10m b/d output.
　　然而，考虑到地区自身对原油的需求。在2000年到2010年的十年间，中国的石油消耗量已增加到每天430万桶，较之前增长了90%比任何一个国家的增长速度都要快现在中国已占据了这个世界上大于百分之10的石油消耗量。更令人惊讶的是，如今中国已然成为世界第二大石油消耗国。而位列第六的沙特阿拉伯，其现在每天的石油消耗量大约为280万桶，较之前也增长了每天120万桶。这样的内部消耗量恰恰大约为其每天1000万桶石油出口量的四分之一。
　　Saudi Arabia is not the only oil-producer that chugs its own wares 4. The Middle East, home to six OPEC members, saw consumption grow by 56% in the first decade of the century, four times the global growth rate and nearly double the rate in Asia (see map).
　　沙特阿拉伯并不是唯一自产自销的石油生产国。石油输出国组织成员的坐落地，中东地区在新世纪的头十年里，其石油消耗量增长了百分之56，这样的增长速度是全球增长速度的4倍，是亚洲地区的2倍。（见地图）
　　Energy use per head is also rising. According to BP, in 1970 in the Middle East it was half what it was in other emerging markets. By 2010 it was three times higher. Global oil consumption stayed at roughly 4.6 barrels a head annually 5 between 2000 and 2010, but the average Iranian and Saudi was getting through roughly 30% more by the end of the decade. The Saudis consume 35.1 barrels each. Overall energy consumption per head, at 7.3 tonnes of oil equivalent, is roughly the same as in America (see chart), which is much richer.
　　人均能源消耗量也在上升。英国石油公司的数据显示， 1970年，东地区的人均能源消耗量是其他新兴市场的一半。而截止到2010年，却已经高出三倍之多。2000到2010年间，全球每人每年的石油消耗量大约为4.6桶，可是伊朗和沙特地区于2010年底的人均消耗量大约高出全球平均量30%。沙特年均每人消耗35.1桶，总计人均能耗7.3吨石油，这一数据大致与相比之下要富裕很多的美国持平。
　　There are three explanations for this growing taste for oil. The first is demography 6. Populations in the Persian Gulf, and in OPEC as a whole, are growing fast. Tiny Qatar's population trebled between 2000 and 2010. Saudi Arabia's grew from around 20m to 27.4m, a 37% increase. Demand for power, water and petrol has risen accordingly. Saudi power-generating capacity has doubled in the past decade. Partly this is to mitigate 7 the fearful heat: according to a report from Chatham House, a think-tank, air-conditioning units soak up half of all power generated at peak consumption periods.
　　我们将石油需求量的增加归因于以下三点。首先是人口。波斯湾和石油输出国成员国的人口增长十分快。小小的卡塔尔，其人口在2000-2010年间就增加了3倍。沙特阿拉伯人口从2000万增加到了2740万，上升了37%.相应的对于电力，水资源和石油的需求也增加了。一份查塔姆研究所智囊团的报告显示，在电力消耗高峰期空调的电力消耗量占据了总电力的一半之多。庆幸的是，沙特的电力生产力在过去的十年中得到了成倍的增强，缓减了这一恐慌。
　　The second relates to economic structure. It takes energy to produce energy: pumps must be powered and vast quantities of seawater desalinated. Aramco, the Saudi state oil company, sucks up nearly 10% of the country's energy output. Attempts to diversify 8 the Saudi economy beyond oil, gas and petrochemicals have not gone far.
　　第二个涉及到的是经济结构。生产能源就需要消耗能源。油泵运行需要电力驱动和大量的脱盐海水。沙特阿美石油公司将近消耗了其出口石油量的百分之十。而力图使沙特经济结构多元化，而不是仅限于石油、天然气和石化产业的尝试却也始终收效甚微。
　　The third reason for rising Gulf consumption is the inefficiency 9 of domestic energy markets. Some 65% of Saudi electricity is generated using black gold, even as successive price shocks and the relative inefficiency of oil generation have seen it all but phased out in rich countries. Oil is used with such profligacy 10 because domestic consumption is massively subsidised. According to the International Energy Agency, global oil subsidies 11 added up to $192 billion in 2010. OPEC countries accounted for $121 billion of the total.
　　海湾地区石油消耗量上升的第三个原因是地区内能源市场的效率低下。，虽然连续不断的价格冲击和低效的石油生产等现象已然在这些富裕国家中匿迹，但仍大约有65%的沙特电力靠石油来生产。当地石油之所以能如此的肆意挥霍还应归因于国内的大量能耗补贴。据国际能源机构统计显示，2010年全球的石油补贴总计为1920亿美元，而石油输出国组织国家占据了其中的1210美元。
　　Saudi Arabia has the cheapest fuel in the Gulf and dirt-cheap electricity, too. This has alleviated 12 poverty but it has also encouraged an American-style driving culture (for men) and limited public transport. Only a third as many Saudis own cars as Americans; as they get richer many more will take to the desert highways.
　　沙特阿拉伯海湾地区有着最便宜的燃料和廉价的电力。这大大减轻了当地的贫困状况，而这也使得许多人开始追求美式的价值观和生活（尤其是男性），并导致了公共交通事业发展缓慢。沙特拥有的汽车只有美国的三分之一，但随着他们变得更加富裕，会有更多的车开上沙漠的高速公路。
　　Many oil-producing countries (including Saudi Arabia) have pledged to cut subsidies. But this is hard to do when regimes are terrified of unrest (and often unelected). Violent protests greeted Nigeria's attempts in January to raise the price of imported petrol. Only Iran, which had the most generous subsidy 13 regime, has managed a big price hike—and it had a handy scapegoat 14 in the form of sanctions.
　　许多产油国（包括沙特阿拉伯）曾宣誓要减少石油补贴。但是，政体上的动荡不安（总统职位长期空缺）导致了这一诺言终究难以实现。一月份的武装抗议更是使得尼日利亚尝试提高进口油的价格。而石油补贴一向慷慨的伊朗更是大大的提高了油价，这也使得他成为了被制裁的主要对象。
　　It is costing Saudi Arabia dear to burn through so much oil. With “lifting” costs of $3 to $5 a barrel the fuel is cheap but the opportunity cost, given a global price of $125, is huge. And like many Gulf oil producers Saudi Arabia has failed to use its abundant natural-gas supplies properly.
　　沙特阿拉伯以每桶3-5美元的价格，大量的使用着石油。而同时，国际油价飙升至了每桶125美元。这样的代价是巨大的。除此之外，由于当地石油资源价格低廉，像许多海湾地区国家一样，沙特阿拉伯没有去合理开发利用当地丰富的天然气资源。
　　Gas does now contribute 35% to power generation, but rock-bottom prices and a sniffiness about gas as oil's poor relation mean that exploiting its bounty 15 (Saudi Arabia apparently 16 has the world's fifth-largest gas reserves) has proven hard. Initiatives to attract Western oil companies to get at the gas foundered 17 as low prices and stingy terms failed to attract bidders 18. Much of the “unassociated” gas that doesn't spew out alongside oil is tough to extract, and would require prices four or five times higher than now to make it worthwhile. According to BP, oil makes up 74% of the region's energy production. By 2030 it will have dropped only to 67%.
　　天然气为该地区提供了35%的发电量，但是由于其市场价值与石油相比十分的低，因此当地人都不愿去大力开发和利用它（尽管沙特阿拉伯地区是世界第五大天然气储备区）。由于天然气低廉的市场价值和当地政府苛刻的一些条件使得一些吸引西方石油公司和竞标商的努力一再受挫。并不伴随原油析出的“非伴生气”提炼很困难，需要将其市场价格提高4-5倍才能彰显其价值。根据英国石油公司的统计预测称，如今石油占据了该地区能源供应的百分之74，而到了2030年，该数值将会下降到百分之67.
　　Saudi Arabia is trying to develop nuclear and solar energy. But its fleet of oil-fired power stations will keep going for years. And as Mark Lewis of Deutsche Bank points out, two more big ones are now being built. On current trends the kingdom would become a net importer of oil by 2038 (unlikely though that is).
　　沙特阿拉伯还致力于发展核能和太阳能工业。可是燃油发电站仍将持续发展数年。正如德意志银行的Mark Lewis指出的那样，两个更大的电站正在建造中。照此下去，沙特阿拉伯将会于2038年成为石油纯进口国。（虽然不太可能发生）
　　This puts big strains on oil markets. In the short term Saudi spare capacity is an important factor in oil prices. As the year progresses seasonal 19 Saudi demand is likely to jump. Last year the upswing between March and July was some 750,000 barrels of fuel a day, according to Barclays Capital. Much of that will be driven by air conditioners working overtime 20. This will put pressure on the country's ability to maintain exports and keep oil prices stable.
　　这给石油市场带来了很大的压力。短期来看，沙特地区的产油余力将会成为主导石油价格的一个重要因素。并且随着时间的推移，沙特国内石油需求量也会周期性的上升。根据巴克莱银行统计书卷显示去年3月至7月的耗油量上升到了750000桶。这大多是空调装置过度使用的结果。并且，这还会给沙特维持石油出口量和维持油价稳定带来压力。
　　The longer-term picture is equally worrying. Global demand for oil is projected to rise to over 100m b/d by 2030. The Gulf states of Saudi Arabia, Iran and Iraq, which have vast and easily accessible reserves, are regarded as the obvious sources of new supply. But Iranian oil production will decline as sanctions bite and the country loses access to equipment and expertise 21. Iraq, currently producing 3m b/d, has the reserves to increase production significantly. But fragile politics, dodgy security and a battered 22 oil infrastructure 23 are deterring 24 the investment required to boost supplies. And Saudi Arabia's thirst for its own oil shows little sign of abating 25. The Gulf is usually seen as the answer to the world's oil problems, but it looks ever more like a question-mark instead.
　　长远来看，前景也是十分的令人担忧。全球石油需求量到2030年预计会达到每天1亿桶。沙特阿拉伯，伊朗以及伊拉克等海湾国家的巨大的石油储备将会是最大的供应源。但是，对伊朗的国际制裁，会使其失去大量技术设备与专家组的支持，致使其石油产量下滑。近来产油量为每天300万桶的伊拉克虽具有足够的原油储量来大大提高其产量，可是其国内分崩离析的政治体系，不完善的安全体制，以及破败的石油基础设施将会大大影响其对海外投资的吸引力，从而影响到其产油量提高的进程。而沙特阿拉伯对石油的巨大内需，也使得局势更加的不稳定。我们都以为海湾地区的石油供给将会解决世界缺油难题，然而在现在看来，它反倒成了一个更令人担忧的问题。