经济学人33:日本银行援助欧洲

　　Finance and Economics；Japanese banks in Asia; Lending a hand;

　　财经；亚洲日本银行；伸出援手；

　　Japan's biggest banks help pick up the slack from retreating Europeans;

　　日本大型银行捡起了欧洲人撂下的担子；

　　There are two, potentially overlapping 1, ways in which Asia's export-driven economies could suffer from the euro crisis. One is from the slowdown in trade to Europe. The other is the drying up of finance, from trade credit to syndicated loans, extended by euro-zone banks. On neither score is Asia as vulnerable as it was after the collapse 2 of Lehman Brothers in 2008, argued Iwan Azis of the Asian Development Bank, at The Economist's Bellwether 3 conference in Tokyo on May 16th. One of the reasons is that Japan's mega-banks have lumbered 4 off their home territory to pick up some of the slack left by the departing Europeans (see chart).

　　欧元危机可能给亚洲的出口导向型经济带来两方面的影响（有可能是相互交叉的）：一方面是对欧贸易额减少，另一方面是资金不足，这是欧元区银行延长了贸易信贷和银团贷款的期限导致的。5月16日，在东京举办的经济学家领导人会谈中，亚洲发展银行的lwan Azis认为，尽管如此，亚洲经济却再也不会像2008年雷曼兄弟垮台之后那般脆弱。其中一个原因是，日本的大型银行逐渐跨越本国领域，捡起了打退堂鼓的欧洲人撂下的一些担子。

　　This is good news not just for Asia's exporters. It also shows a rare stroke of boldness by Japan's big three, Mitsubishi UFJ Group (MUFG), Sumitomo Mitsui, and Mizuho. After pulling back from lending to Asia following the 1998 financial crisis, and then suffering more than a decade of deleveraging by their deflation-sapped customers at home, they can almost smell the predicament of their European peers. Ken 5 Takamiya of Nomura Securities says that in Australia, for instance, the mega-banks' lending has recently overtaken that of BNP Paribas and Société Générale, two retreating French banks. It is the same story elsewhere in Asia, he thinks.

　　这不仅仅对亚洲输出国来说是好事，同时，也是日本银行业三巨头——三菱日联金融集团（MUFG）、三井住友银行、瑞穗银行少有的一次大胆出击。自1998年金融危机之时三巨头停止像亚洲放贷，之后又连续遭受十几年通货紧缩国民减债的困境，他们几乎可以嗅到如今的欧洲同行的窘迫。野村证券的Ken takamiya表示，譬如在澳大利亚，日本大型银行的贷款近期已经超过了呈下滑趋势的两家法国银行——法国巴黎银行和法国兴业银行。他认为，在亚洲其他地区也是如此。

　　Some of the banks trumpeted 6 their ability to buy discarded European assets abroad, as well as making fresh loans in Asia, when they released reports on May 15th showing a sharp increase in profits last fiscal 7 year. These profits largely reflected the sale of big helpings 8 of Japanese government bonds, but foreign activities help. Mr Takamiya says returns on overseas assets at MUFG's biggest bank generate about 2.5%, versus 9 less than 1.5% at home.

　　这些大型银行中，有些在5月15日的报告中展示其在上一财政年度收益剧增，并吹嘘自己购买废弃欧洲资产及在亚洲发放新鲜贷款的能力。这些收益极大地反映出日本政府公债的重要作用，但外事活动也的确有所帮助。Takamiya先生指出，三菱集团最大的银行拥有的海外资产产生的收益占总收益的2.5%，相比之下，国内资产的收益只有1.5%。

　　There are, however, some impediments to growing further in Asia, and especially to catching 10 up with Western competitors such as HSBC and Citigroup. Firstly, although the mega-banks have huge deposits—MUFG has the second-biggest stash 11 in the world—they lack matching-currency funding to make non-yen loans, and are thinking only gingerly about spreading branch networks across Asia, analysts 12 say.

　　然而，日本大型银行在亚洲的发展道路会遭遇一些阻碍，尤其是想要赶上其西方竞争对手（如汇丰银行和花旗集团）。首先，据有关人士分析，虽然这些大型银行有巨额的存款——MUFG储蓄量为世界第二，但他们缺少货币配对基金来提供非日元贷款；而且对于在亚洲扩展分支网络一事，他们表现得小心翼翼。

　　Secondly 13, their ambitions to be more innovative 14 are modest for now. Rival bankers snort that Japan's lending is “pure balance-sheet”, meaning they make large syndicated and project-finance loans that are often long-term and low-margin. They lack the more sophisticated and lucrative 15 cash-management, foreign-exchange and other services of Western peers.

　　其次，他们革新的雄心壮志仍旧是不温不火。作为其对手的银行业人士嗤之以鼻地表示，日本贷款是“纯粹的资产负债表”，即他们虽然提供大量银团贷款和项目融资贷款，却经常是长期性且低利润的。他们缺少了西方同行拥有的那些更为复杂、更能赢利的现金管理、外汇交易及其他服务。

　　Business at home is so lacklustre, however, that they may have little choice but to place bigger bets abroad. And even if prospects 16 for growth in Japan did improve—GDP rose by 1% in the first quarter, beating expectations—the banks would still benefit from diversifying 17. So exposed are they to Japanese government bonds that Masaaki Shirakawa, the governor of the Bank of Japan, has said the big banks could suffer losses of up to ￥3.5 trillion ($43.5 billion) if yields rose by an admittedly lofty one percentage point. That would more than wipe out their combined profit last year.

　　但是，国内市场太过乏味，日本大型银行不得不向国外市场押下更大的赌注。尽管日本国内经济增长前景的确有所改善——第一季度的GDP上涨1%，超出预期；但多元化经营仍旧会给他们带来诸多利益。日本政府公债对这些银行的影响过大，日本银行理事Masaaki Shirakawa表示，如果利率真的上涨了1%，这些大型银行将会遭受价值3.5亿日元的巨额损失。这比他们去年利润的总和还要多。