经济学人43:该死，还不贬值! Weaken, dammit!

 　　Finance and Economics；Japanese exchange-rate policy; Weaken, dammit! Japan's policymakers try subtle approaches to cheapen the yen 1

　　财经；日本汇率政策；该死，还不贬值！日本政策制定者暗中寻求本币贬值；
　　With their overnight-lending rates at zero for most of the past decade, the Japanese public long ago stopped caring about interest rates. Instead the yen is their focus. Shoppers may revel 2 in its current strength against the dollar but in the news media, the financial markets and corporate 3 Japan, it is a relentless 4 source of woe 5. Carlos Ghosn, the boss of Nissan and Renault, publicly lambasts it as a “1,000-pound gorilla” that hurts his ability to sell Japanese cars abroad. Its strength is increasingly becoming a political issue, too.
　　在过去十年的大部分时间里，日本隔夜拆借利率都为零，日本民众早就对利率失去了兴趣，而日元则成为他们关注的焦点。日元兑美元汇率走强也许是购物者愿意听到的消息，但对于新闻媒体、金融市场和日本企业来说，这却是国内经济低迷的罪魁祸首。日产—雷诺的总裁卡洛斯·戈恩公开斥责日元升值是“一头1000磅的大猩猩”损害了日本汽车在海外市场的竞争力。同时，强势日元也逐渐成为一项政治议题。
　　Both the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the finance ministry 6 have taken steps recently that analysts 7 believe are surreptitiously aimed at the currency markets. On April 27th the BoJ increased the size of its asset-purchase programme by ￥5 trillion ($62 billion), and extended the maturity 8 limit of government bonds it would buy from two to three years. That enhanced easing measures introduced in February which sharply weakened the yen.
　　日本央行和财政部最近都采取了一些行动。分析人士指出，这些行动都暗中针对货币市场。4月27日，日本央行将资产购买计划扩容五万亿日元（620亿美元），同时将计划购买的政府债券期限由两年延长到三年。今年二月推行的宽松货币政策使日元大幅贬值。这些举动进一步加强了这一政策的效力。
　　Days before, the finance ministry promised the biggest single contribution—a $60 billion slug—to a $430 billion increase in IMF funding which is largely aimed at alleviating 9 concerns about the euro crisis. As a senior official admitted, Japan’s decision was not altruistic 10. When the euro crisis gets worse, it weakens Japan’s exports to Europe and strengthens the yen, which compounds the first problem. So Japan has a direct interest in market stability.
　　几天前， IMF为缓解欧元危机造成的紧张情绪将（可贷）资金规模扩充4300亿美元，为响应这一号召，财务部允诺注资600亿美元，使日本成为本次注资金额最大的国家。正如一位高级官员承认“日本此举并非毫无私心”。随着欧元危机愈演愈烈，削弱了日本对欧洲的出口，进而使日元兑欧元走强——这会使得日本出口形势进一步恶化。因此，日本经济形势与国际市场稳定性直接相关。
　　Neither institution discusses the currency openly. The BoJ knows that overt 11 currency manipulation is frowned upon as a “beggar-thy-neighbour” policy. But it nonetheless believes the yen’s value is important, because it has an impact on the economic decisions people and companies make. It may influence inflation expectations (of foreign investors 12, if not deflation-inured domestic ones); and it is a hot potato politically. Influential 13 politicians are pressing the central bank to do more to stoke the economy by pushing down the yen. They brandish 14 figures showing how the BoJ’s asset-purchase programme has undershot that of other big central banks (see chart). Some political parties are proposing reforms that the BoJ fears would curb 15 its independence.
　　日本央行和财政部都未公开讨论过货币问题。日本央行当然明白公开操纵汇率这种“以邻为壑”会招致他国不满。尽管如此，鉴于日元购买力对公司和个人的经济决策的影响，央行还是重视日元汇率的。就算汇率不影响日本国民（他们已经习惯了紧缩），也会影响外国投资者的通胀预期。而且从政治层面来看，它也是块烫手的山芋。现在，那些位高权重的政客们正向央行施压，要求它采取更多的手段使日元贬值以此刺激国内经济。他们援引数据表明，日本央行的资产购买计划（asset-purchase programme）远不及其他主要国家央行。而日本央行担心，某些政党提出的改革方案可能有损其独立性。
　　In its latest move, the BoJ seemed keen to remind the markets that it is no miracle worker. The increase in the asset-purchase programme fell short of expectations. It implicitly 16 issued a warning about the danger of monetising debt by printing money. Since its meeting, the yen has strengthened. Masamichi Adachi at J.P. Morgan says that is a reminder 17 that whatever the BoJ does, global risk appetites have a bigger influence on the currency markets.
　　在最近的行动中日本央行似乎极力提醒市场：不要指望它能创造神迹。扩大资产购买项目未能达到预期目标，这对于央行将债务货币化的危险提出了含蓄的警告。摩根大通驻东京高级分析师正道安達（Masamichi Adachi）称，目前日元走势坚挺也在提醒投资者，无论日本央行采取何种举动，全球风险偏好对货币市场的影响则要更大一些。
　　But the yen will not have been forgotten about. Yunosuke Ikeda of Nomura says that on four occasions since 2010 a bigger asset-purchase programme has been followed by government intervention 18 to weaken the yen. He thinks that the government must be at least considering another intervention. What’s more, he believes the IMF loan may be a crafty 19 manoeuvre 20 to help. Japan’s leadership in providing the money, he reckons, may make it easier for it to win international approval if it does choose to sell the yen again.
　　尽管如此，日元也不会为人们所忽视。野村证券分析师池田指出，自2010年来，政府已经四次干预日元汇率使之贬值，且都伴随着资产购买项目扩容。他认为日本人政府至少应该考虑再一次干预汇率。此外，日本向IMF提供贷款这一巧妙策略提升了日本的领导力，对日元贬值也有所助益：如果日本政府选择抛售日元使之贬值，这一策略会帮助日本获得国际社会支持。