经济学人38:全球房价 Global house prices

 　　Finance and Economics；Global house prices;Downdraft;

　　财经；全球房价; 全球房价日渐衰落;
　　European house prices are finding it harder to defy gravity;
　　欧洲房价难以扭转乾坤;
　　From the late 1990s home prices across the rich world soared relentlessly 1 upward, borne aloft on a gale 2 of cheap capital. In 2006 some overvalued markets began crashing to earth. Until recently, however, the correction seemed remarkably 3 contained. American and Irish home prices plunged 4, giving up all the gains of the previous decade, but others have fallen far less steeply. Some markets faltered 5 and then stabilised. The latest update of The Economist's global house-price indicators 6 hints that this period of post-crisis calm may be coming to an end.
　　上世纪90年代起，发达国家的房价借廉价资本之风冲上云霄，高居不下。2006年部分被高估的楼市开始回落。然而直至近日，回落势头似乎才得以控制。 美国、爱尔兰的住房房价急遽下滑，前十年积攒的楼市盈余全部打了水漂。较前两国而言，其他国家的房价下滑则较为平缓。一些楼市虽起伏不定，随后却能趋于稳定。本刊最新更新的全球房价指数暗示，暴风雨前的宁静期或将告终。
　　Europe's gravity-defying act has been the most striking. Most of its largest housing markets—Germany is the big exception—boomed in the early 2000s and stumbled during the crisis. But fortunes have diverged 7 since then. Irish prices plunged and continue to sink. House prices in most other markets are still well above “fair value”, which we define as the long-run average of two measures: the price-to-income ratio, a gauge 8 of affordability 9, and the price-to-rents ratio, an analogue 10 of the price-to-earnings ratio used to judge the equity 11 value of listed firms. Spanish markets are still overvalued by a quarter on these measures, although prices are falling. In Belgium and France, prices are well above fair value and they continue to rise.
　　欧洲房价跌幅格外惹人注目。除德国之外，多数欧洲大型住房市场无一例外的在21世纪初繁荣，而后受金融危机拖累。各国命运自此分岔。爱尔兰房价急转直下，至今未能刹车。而其余楼市的住房价格却依旧维持在“公平价格”之上。所谓公平价格，即房价对收比和租售比两项指标的长期平均值。其中，房价对收比用于评估评估支付能力，而租售比则模拟市盈率以鉴定上市公司股权价值。西班牙房价虽呈下滑趋势，但楼市仍被高估25%。 比利时和法国的房价则远超公平价格，并继续高飞猛涨。
　　Such buoyancy can largely be attributed to a combination of low interest rates and a preponderance of variable-rate mortgages. But from the third quarter of 2011 to the fourth, as recession bit and bond markets wobbled, European house prices came under downward pressure. The pace of depreciation 12 quickened around the periphery 13 of the euro zone. Appreciation 14 slowed in Germany and France. The euro area's downturn probably continued into the first quarter of 2012 and may persist beyond that. Unemployment is rising across the continent and banks are under pressure to shore up balance-sheets (see article). Prices will struggle to rise in such conditions, in over- and undervalued markets alike.
　　楼市呈现如此繁荣景象，很大程度上应归功于低利率和浮息按揭的优势。而在2011年第三季度至第四季度间，经济衰退来袭，债券市场暴跌，欧洲房价不负重压开始跌落。欧元区边缘国家跌幅加速，德法两国涨幅放缓。预计2012年第一季度欧元区将持续萎靡，低迷之势抑或加剧。欧洲大陆失业之风蔓延，银行肩负平衡资产负债表之压。此般情形之下，无论在楼市被高估与否，房价势必难以反弹。
　　Housing markets have also cooled in far healthier economies. China's government spent much of 2011 reining 15 in its scorching 16 housing sector 17 by limiting multiple home purchases, raising interest rates and hiking banks' reserve requirements. Soaring prices now look a thing of the past: values were essentially 18 flat in the year to the fourth quarter of 2011. A fragile Europe and a cooling China have taken the wind out of other Asian housing markets. Values continue to rise in Singapore but more slowly than in the third quarter of last year. Australian home values fell faster in the fourth quarter than in the third.
　　一些健康经济体的楼市热浪也已消退。2011年中国政府耗费大量精力通过限制个人购房数，提高利率以及提高银行准备金标准来压制过热的房价。 如今看来，飙升的房价已呈回落之势：2011年第三季度房价走势基本平缓。 萎靡脆弱的欧洲和日益冷静的中国也削弱了其他亚洲楼市的锐气。新加坡房价持续走高，但涨幅较去年第三季度相比明显放缓。澳大利亚住房价格第四季度的跌幅则大于第三季度。
　　America's housing-market correction has gone further than most. On our gauge, prices nationally are 19% below fair value. Economic conditions are improving, and the unemployment rate is down sharply from a year ago. Home sales and construction are depressed 19 relative to normal levels but rose substantially in early 2012 from the prior year. Prices keep falling, however. According to the latest release of the S&P/Case-Shiller index of home prices, home values in large markets were down by 3.8% in the year to January. That was better than a 4.1% drop in December but still horribly disappointing.
　　美国楼市回落之势最大。本刊指数表显示，全美房价低于公平价格19%。而美国的经济状况日渐转好，失业率也较去年急剧锐减。去年至今年年初住房销量和建筑量虽大幅上升，但与正常水平相对略显萧条。然而房价持续下滑。最新公布的标普住房价格指数显示，今年一月大型楼市房价下降了3.8%。虽比12月下跌4.1%要好，但依旧令人极其失望。
　　Better times are in sight. Buying a house looks like an increasingly good bet compared with renting, according to The Economist's calculations. Indeed, rising rents are helping 20 to cut into a backlog 21 of unsold homes; in February, 23% of home sales were to investors 22, many of whom will switch the properties into rentals 23.
　　好日子指日可待。本刊预计，买房看上去越来越比租房划算。飙升的租金确实有助于抛售积压房产。今年二月住房销售量中，23%由投资者购买，而其中大部分房产将转用于出租。
　　Canadians have reason to quake at the wrenching 24 correction going on south of the border. House prices in Canada are above their 2007 mark, and appreciation accelerated from the third quarter of 2011 to the fourth. The price-to-rent ratio now indicates that Canadian properties are 76% overvalued, though things look less bubbly on the income measure and Canadian lenders are a far more disciplined bunch than pre-crisis American lenders were. The government hopes to prod 25 markets into a slowdown by toughening financing rules.
　　加拿大人绝对有理由为美国骤然回落的房价担忧。加拿大房价远超2007年水平，2011年第三季度到第四季度间增幅加速。 尽管单用收入衡量，加拿大楼市看似则不那么泡沫，而且加拿大的贷方远比金融危机前的美国贷方有教养，但目前租售比显示加拿大房产被高估了76%。加拿大政府则希望通过强化融资规来刺激楼市放缓。
　　In large, global cities there is another dimension to house-price movements. Where foreign demand is an important part of the local property market, exchange rates matter for affordability, as our analysis of prices adjusted for trade-weighted exchange rates indicates (see chart). Consider London. Homes there may feel as expensive as ever to Britons, but a large sterling 26 depreciation means houses look some 15% cheaper to foreigners now than they did five years ago. Dollar weakness has left New York homes some 30% cheaper for international buyers than in 2006. By contrast, a dearer loonie has driven up Toronto home values by nearly 90% since 2006, compared with a rise of 32% in local-currency terms. The yuan's slow but steady rise has magnified appreciation in Shanghai. Small wonder Chinese buyers are so visible in London and Manhattan.
　　国际大都市的房价波动还有一个特点。本刊对房价随贸易加权汇率的变动的分析显示（见上图），若当地房地产市场以国外需求为主，购买力必受外汇汇率的影响。举伦敦为例，在英国人眼中的房价也许与往常持平，但对外国买家而言，英镑的大幅贬值使得英国住房比5年前便宜约15%。美元疲软拖累纽约房价，使其比2006年便宜了近30%，国际买家坐收渔利。 反之，2006年起不断升值的路尼则将多伦多的房价抬升近90%，按本币计算相对上涨32%。受缓慢稳健升值的人民币影响，上海房价涨幅扩大。难怪来伦敦和曼哈顿买房的中国人越来越多。