VOA双语新闻 --- 美民主党初选内斗相争利共和党

In the U.S. presidential race, a growing number of Democrats 1 are worried that the long and bitter nomination 2 fight between Senators Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton may be helping 3 the presumptive Republican candidate, Senator John McCain.

在这次美国总统大选的竞选中，越来越多的民主党人担心，奥巴马参议员和克林顿参议员之间争夺提名的旷日持久苦战可能有助于可能获共和党候选人提名的麦凯恩参议员。



Some Democrats, many of them Obama supporters, argue there is no way that Hillary Clinton can overtake Barack Obama in the delegate count, and they want her to step aside for the good of the party.

包括奥巴马的许多支持者在内的一些民主党人说，在选举代表人数上克林顿不可能超越奥巴马，他们希望克林顿为了民主党的利益而退出竞选。



But out on the campaign trail, Hillary Clinton says voters are telling her just the opposite.

但是正在竞选途中的克林顿说，选民向她表达了相反的意见。



"The most common thing that people say to me, it happened here, it happened last night, it happens everywhere now, is do not give up," she said. "Keep going. We are with you."

她说：“人们最常对我说的话是：不要放弃，坚持下去，我们支持你。他们在这里这样说，昨晚也这样说过，到处都有人这样说。”



Obama leads Clinton in the delegate count by more than 100. Most political experts give Clinton little chance of pulling ahead of Obama in the remaining primaries and caucuses 4 because Democrats award delegates on a proportional basis, making it difficult for challengers to make up ground on the delegate leader.

奥巴马赢得的选举代表人数超过克林顿100多人。大多数政治人士都认为，克林顿几乎没有可能在今后的初选和党内基层选举中超越奥巴马，因为民主党人根据比例计算各人赢得的选举代表人数，这使得争夺代表人数的对手难以后来居上压倒领先者。



Clinton is favored in the next primary in Pennsylvania. But Obama remains 5 confident that he will win his share of the remaining 10 nominating contests that run into June and will emerge victorious 6 at the Democrat's national nominating convention in August.

克林顿参议员在即将举行的宾夕法尼亚州初选中处于优势地位，但是奥巴马仍然坚信，他将在延续到6月的余下10次初选中获胜，而且将在8月的民主党全国代表大会上取得提名。



"We will win this nomination, we will win the general election, and, you and I together, we will change this country and we will change the world," he said.

奥巴马说：“我们将赢得提名，我们将赢得大选，你们和我一起将改变这个国家，我们还将改变这个世界。”



New polls suggest the lengthy 7 and increasingly bitter Democratic nomination fight could hurt the party in the November election.

最近的调查结果显示，拖延日久且日趋激烈的民主党提名战可能会不利于民主党在11月大选中获胜。



An NBC News-Wall Street Journal poll has Obama and Clinton tied at 45 percent in a national survey, but also showed a spike 8 in negative views of Senator Clinton. Of those asked, 48 percent had a negative view of Clinton, compared to 37 percent who see her favorably. Obama's numbers were 49 percent positive and 32 percent negative.

全国广播公司新闻节目和华尔街日报联合进行的全国调查显示，奥巴马和克林顿的支持率都是45%，但是也显示对克林顿持负面看法的人数大幅上升。接受调查人当中，48%的人对克林顿持负面看法，37%的人赞同克林顿。奥巴马的正面得分是49%，负面得分是37%。



In addition, a new Gallup poll suggests the presumptive Republican nominee 9, Senator John McCain, is reaping benefits from the Democrat's infighting.

盖洛普最新调查显示，共和党的可能总统候选人麦凯恩参议员正从民主党的内斗中获利。



A total of 19 percent of Obama supporters said they would vote for McCain if Clinton were the Democratic nominee, while 28 percent of Clinton supporters said they would defect to McCain if Obama wins the nomination.

19%的奥巴马支持者说，如果克林顿成为民主党候选人，他们将投票支持麦凯恩。28%的克林顿支持者表示，如果奥巴马获得提名，他们将转而支持麦凯恩。



Most political analysts 10 believe that the only way Clinton can win the Democratic nomination is for her to continue to attack Obama in the months to come and hope for support from so called super delegates, uncommitted office holders 11 and party activists 12 who will vote at the convention.

大多数政治分析人士认为，克林顿要想赢得民主党提名的唯一途径是在今后几个月里不断攻击奥巴马，而且把希望寄托在超级选举代表、尚未表态的政府官员以及将在全国代表大会上参加投票的民主党活动分子的支持上。



But experts warn that would likely rip the Democratic Party apart.

但是专家警告说，那样很可能会导致民主党分裂。



Norm Ornstein is a longtime political scholar at the American Enterprise Institute.

诺姆.奥恩斯坦是美国企业研究所内的资深政治学家。



"So, for Mrs. Clinton, to get to the end of this nominating process if she is behind in elected delegates, overall delegates, popular votes cast nationwide and states, it is hard to imagine a Democratic Party that would nominate her under those circumstances because that would be a genuinely Pyrrhic [costly] victory," he explained.

他说：“就克林顿夫人而言，如果在这次提名程序的终点，她所赢得的选举代表人数、代表总数和全国及各州民众普选票数都落后的话，很难想象民主党会在这种情况下提名她为候选人，因为那的确是要付出巨大牺牲才能换取的胜利。”



Some of the super delegates want to prevent the Obama-Clinton battle from continuing all the way to the convention in August.



Tennessee Governor Phil Bredesen is an uncommitted super delegate. Bredesen has proposed that the Democratic super delegates who have yet to commit to a candidate meet in June to settle the fight once and for all.



"If we go on through the summer with all these things happening behind the scenes, I think it is a terrible image for the party," he said. "Part of the idea of doing it in a public way in June is let us get them together, let us have them listen to the candidates, let us have them publicly declare where they are and let us get out of that backroom mode."



Both Clinton and Obama have had to deal with potentially damaging controversies 13 in recent days.

克林顿和奥巴马都必须处理近日来的争论可能造成的破坏性后果。



Clinton acknowledged that she misspoke when she exaggerated the dangers of a trip to Bosnia as First Lady in 1996.

克林顿承认，自己错误地夸大了1996年作为第一夫人访问波斯尼亚时的危险。



Obama sought to distance himself from the racial and anti-American statements of his former pastor 14, the Reverend Jeremiah Wright.

奥巴马泽努力寻求与他以前的牧师莱特保持距离。这名牧师发表了种族主义和反美言论。



New polls suggest Obama's speech on race dealing 15 with Wright last week may have limited damage in the short term. But many Republican strategists believe Wright will be a liability for Obama if he faces McCain in the general election.

最近的调查显示，奥巴马上周处理莱特问题的有有关种族的讲话可能在近期内造成的损害有限。但是许多共和党策略人士认为，如果奥巴马在大选中迎战麦凯恩，那么莱特将拖累奥巴马。



Weekly Standard editor Fred Barnes is a frequent guest on VOA's Issues in the News program.

旗帜周刊编辑巴尼斯经常是美国之音新闻节目的佳宾。



Barnes says some Republicans now believe Obama would be a weaker opponent than Clinton in the general election.

他说，某些共和党人如今还认为，和克林顿相比，奥巴马是位更弱的对手。



"They have always assumed up until very recently that Hillary Clinton would be the perfect candidate for them, the Republicans, to run against, because they think she unites the Republican Party and so on," he said. "Now with the Jeremiah Wright affair and Barack Obama, they are not so sure. They think Obama might be an easier candidate to beat."

巴尼斯说：“共和党直到最近还一直认为克林顿是他们最理想的对手，因为他们认为克林顿可以让共和党团结一致。但是现在爆出了奥巴马与莱特关系的事情，他们就没那么确定了，他们可能认为奥巴马是更容易击败的对手。”



In terms of general election match-ups, the NBC Wall Street Journal poll shows Obama edging McCain by 44 to 42 percent, while McCain defeats Clinton by a margin of 46 to 44 percent.

全国广播公司与华尔街日报有关大选对阵的调查结果显示，如果奥巴马与麦凯恩交锋，奥巴马会有44%的胜算，麦凯恩只有42%，而麦凯恩会以46%的优势击败克林顿的44%支持率。