经济学人91:共和党党内提名,表演正当时

 　　The Republican nomination 1

　　共和党党内提名
　　It's showtime
　　表演正当时
　　The Republicans are, at last, seriously getting on with choosing a candidate to take on Barack Obama next year
　　共和党终于认真物色候选人参加明年大选，与奥巴马一决高下
　　Jun 9th 2011 | WASHINGTON, DC | from the print edition
　　IT HAS been said so often that it has come to look self-evident. But is the Republican field in the race for next year’s presidential election really so weak? Democrats 2 said much the same about their own candidates in 1991, only to see Bill Clinton capture the White House.
　　选局再明显不过了。然而共和党阵营在明年的总统大选中真的不堪一击吗？1991年民主党也认为自己的候选人没有胜算，但最终比尔??克林顿赢得了大选，入主白宫。
　　True, Americans take a dim view of the field so far, if recent surveys by the Pew Research Centre and the Washington Post are to believed. Only 25% had a good impression of the likely candidates. Many stars have decided 3 to sit this race out. But this week brought a surprise. Less than a week after announcing that he was running again, Mitt 4 Romney, who came second to John McCain in 2008, found himself head-to-head, at 47% each, against Barack Obama in a Washington Post/ABC poll. Maybe the president is not unassailable after all.
　　事实上，要是皮尤研究中心和华盛顿邮报近期所做的调查属实的话，美国人对共和党参选阵营持悲观态度。只有25%的人对共和党大选候选人持好印象。许多政治明星人物都决定独善其身，隔岸观火。然而本周爆出了一个惊人的消息。根据华盛顿邮报和美国广播公司进行的调查，在米特??罗姆尼宣布第二次参选的几天后，就与巴拉克??奥巴马各获得47%的支持率。也许总统之位并非遥不可及。2008年米特??罗姆尼曾和同为共和党籍的约翰??麦凯恩一起参加党内提名选举，后宣布退出。
　　That said, Mr Romney is the clear front-runner (see Lexington). The others have a lot of ground to make up before they can match his combination of name recognition and financial resources.
　　据称罗姆尼的领先优势十分明显。其他人要想与他的知名度与财富相匹及，恐怕还有许多方面尚需完善。
　　Consider Tim Pawlenty, the former governor of Minnesota. An evangelical Christian 5 who balanced his state’s budget has obvious appeal both to the party’s social conservatives and its fiscal 6 hawks 7. And yet his mild public manner makes his policies seem less threatening than those of other conservatives to voters in the middle. In theory, this is the ideal place to start. The trick for any candidate is going to be winning the nomination of a party that the tea-party movement has driven sharply to the right without alienating 8 too many of the voters in the centre on whom final victory will depend.
　　我们来看看前明尼苏达州州长蒂姆??普兰提。这位虔诚的福音派神学基督教徒将明尼苏达州治理的井井有条，预算平衡，使得党内的社会保守派人士以及财政鹰派人士都对他青睐有加。此外，此人气质温和，这也使得中间选民觉得他的执政策略要比其他保守派人士的威胁性要少一些。理论上讲，他获得了一个理想的开局。所有候选人手段用尽的最终目的都是为了赢得党内提名，茶党运动把党内提名选举推向了极端右翼趋势，但此举没有失去可以左右最终结果的中间派选民的支持。
　　As a wolf in sheep’s clothing, Mr Pawlenty has become a favourite among political insiders. But according to the Pew survey, less than half (48%) of America has ever heard of him. After announcing his candidacy from Iowa at the end of May, Mr Pawlenty has now embarked 9 on the long slog of making his name more widely known. At a speech this week at the University of Chicago he set out his economic stall firmly on the right, promising 10 to slash 11 the size of government and boost growth by simplifying income taxes, cutting corporate 12 taxes and eliminating taxes on capital gains, dividends 13 and inheritance. Critics dismissed his plans as fantasy.
　　普兰提可谓一只披着羊皮的狼，颇受政界人士欢迎。不过根据皮尤研究中心所做的调查，只有不到一半（48%）的美国人知道此人。五月底，普兰提在爱荷华州宣布参选。此后，为了提高知名度，他进行了一连串的造势活动，本周他在芝加哥大学进行了一场演讲，宣布要坚定的实行右翼倾向的经济政策，承诺大幅度缩减政府规模，降低所得税和公司税，取消资本收益税、股息和遗产税，以此来促进经济发展。然而批评家则认为他的计划不过是不切实际的空中楼阁罢了。
　　One other former governor, Gary Johnson of New Mexico, has joined the race and a second, Jon Huntsman of Utah, is on the point of formally doing so. Mr Johnson is a rank outsider, but Mr Huntsman is exciting interest as a more charismatic version of the front-runner.
　　前新墨西哥州州长加里??约翰逊以及犹他州州长洪博培都宣布参与党内提名选举，约翰逊属于冷门候选人，然而洪博培却野心勃勃，希望成为魅力超凡的领先者。
　　Like Mr Romney, he has good looks and a successful record in business. He was popular for presiding over Utah’s biggest-ever tax cut. But like Mr Romney he is a Mormon, still a handicap in presidential races. And he too carries some baggage that will alienate 14 the Republican base.
　　和罗姆尼一样，洪博培相貌英俊，从商成绩斐然。因领导犹他州实施有史以来最大的减税案而备受欢迎。然而他和罗姆尼一样都是摩门教徒，这一点成为了他赢得总统竞选的一大障碍。而且他本人所持的某些理念也造成了他和共和党之间存在着摩擦。
　　Mr Romney’s problem is that he pioneered in Massachusetts a version of the hated Obamacare the Republicans vow 15 to repeal 16. Mr Huntsman’s is that he accepted Mr Obama’s offer of being ambassador to China and said nice things about his boss. More troubling to the Republican base are the support he expressed for the president’s economic stimulus 17 package in 2009, his moderate position on civil unions for gay couples and his participation 18, when governor, in a regional cap-and-trade scheme. Nate Silver, a polling analyst 19 for the New York Times, argues that none of the other contenders had adopted so many moderate positions, and that this put the former ambassador’s chances of winning the nomination “near zero”.
　　罗姆尼的问题在于他曾在马萨诸塞州倡导奥巴马推行的医改政策，而这一政策恰恰是共和党人发誓要根除的眼中钉。而洪博培的问题则在于他曾接受奥巴马总统的任命担任美国驻华大使，并且对奥巴马总统这位老板极尽溢美之词。洪博培曾公开支持奥巴马总统于2009年提出的一揽子经济刺激计划，对于同性夫妻同居一事采取温和态度，时任犹他州州长之时参与了地区总量管制和交易规则的推行，这些都令共和党恼怒不已。纽约时报民调专家内特??希尔表示：没有哪位提名竞争者采取了如此之多的温和态度，这样一来，这位前大使赢得党内提名的可能性“几乎为零”。
　　Messrs Romney, Pawlenty and Huntsman are seen as candidates who, if they could win the nomination, stand a fair chance of doing well against Mr Obama. Others might be called the insurgents—those with less appeal to the mainstream 20 voter but eager followers 21 in the base. The best-known of these is Sarah Palin. Whereas only 32% of Americans have heard of Mr Huntsman, says Pew, the former governor of Alaska is now familiar to a whopping 97% of Americans.
　　罗姆尼、普兰提和洪博培这三位候选人，不论哪一位赢得党内提名，都将在明年的总统选举中与奥巴马旗鼓相当。其他候选人或许可以称之为捣乱分子-这些人得不到主流投票者的支持，但是在共和党铁杆追随者中却有很大的号召力。其中最著名的当数萨拉??佩林。据皮尤研究中心提供的数据，这位前阿拉斯加州长在全美知名度高达97%，而洪博培却只有32%。
　　Since being chosen as Mr McCain’s running-mate in 2008, Mrs Palin has courted publicity 22 tirelessly, most recently with the “One Nation” bus tour she launched in Washington, DC, on Memorial Day. Not all the publicity has been favourable 23, however. For example, she was widely mocked after giving a mangled 24 account in Boston of Paul Revere’s famous ride and refusing to admit her mistake.
　　自2008年成为麦凯恩的竞选伙伴起，佩林女士便孜孜不倦的进行宣传造势活动，最近一次宣传活动是在阵亡将士纪念日这一天，她在华盛顿特区发起的名为“同一个国家”的公车巡游活动。然而并非所有的宣传活动都受到民众欢迎。举例来说，有一次她因为歪解著名的保罗??里维尔夜骑的故事而成为了众人的笑柄，她本人则拒绝承认错误。
　　“Reveregate” exemplifies Mrs Palin’s problem as a candidate. Nobody knows whether she seriously intends to join the race or, if she does, how seriously to take her. Although she has fiercely loyal fans (some of whom apparently 25 tampered 26 with Wikipedia to support her revisionist version of Revere’s ride), she inspires fierce dislike as well. The Washington Post/ABC poll found two out of three Americans (including 42% of Republican voters) saying they would definitely not vote for her—and more than six out of ten said she was not qualified 27 to be president.
　　“里维尔门”事件说明了佩林女士作为候选人的问题所在。没有人知道她是否是认真地打算参加选举，抑或她准备拿出多少诚意来参加选举。尽管她拥有很多铁杆支持者（有些人甚至明目张胆地篡改维基百科来粉饰她对保罗??里维尔夜骑故事的歪解），但是人们还是不怎么喜欢她。据华盛顿邮报和美国广播公司所做的民意测验，三分之二的美国人（包括42%的共和党支持者）表示他们决不会投票给她，超过十分之六的美国人认为她不够格做美国总统。
　　If she does run, she will hurt Michele Bachmann, a congresswoman from Minnesota who is also a darling of the tea-party movement but one who has been less coy about her plan to join the race. Sometimes dismissed as Palin Lite, Mrs Bachmann is in fact a former tax lawyer, devout 28 evangelical and a serious-minded politician capable of flashes of stirring oratory 29. In public she insists that Mrs Palin is a friend and kindred spirit, but Ed Rollins, her newly hired campaign consultant 30, grumbled 31 this week that “Sarah has not been serious over the last couple of years.”
　　如果佩林女士决定参选，那么她将伤害有着"茶党女王"之称的美国明尼苏达州国会议员巴赫曼。巴赫曼女士从不羞于表达她参选的意图。巴赫曼有时候因为“佩林第二”这一称号而遭遇挫折。事实上这位前税法律师是一位虔诚的福音派神学教徒，一位心思严谨的政客，并且具有高超的演讲才能。在公开场合她坚称与佩林是志趣相投的好朋友。“萨拉在过去几年里从来没有认真地做过什么事情。”巴赫曼新雇佣的选举顾问阿德??罗林本周愤恨不平的说道。
　　Another candidate with excellent name-recognition (71%) is Ron Paul. The elderly libertarian now making his third run for the White House (on one attempt he represented the Libertarian Party) argues that the nation is at last latching 32 on to his small-government philosophy. Students in particular admire his professorial radicalism 34. But most voters are dubious 35 about returning to the gold standard and dismantling 36 America’s overseas bases. With no real prospect 37 of victory, he may soon have to pass the torch to his son, Rand, now sitting in the Senate for Kentucky.
　　罗恩??保罗也是一位知名度很高的候选人，这位年长的自由意志主义支持者决定第三次参与总统之位的角逐（曾有一次代表自由党参加大选），他在参加辩论时说这个国家终于对他的小政府理念有所了解。学生们尤为追捧他这种教授似的激进主义观点。对于他所提出的重新实行金本位货币制度以及撤销美国海外基地的想法，大部分投票者持怀疑态度。由于获胜机会渺茫，他可能很快会让其子兰德??保罗接替他。兰德??保罗现任塔基州参议员。
　　Newt Gingrich entered the race with brighter prospects 38. He has money, and a name as the author of the 1994 “revolution” that captured the House of Representatives for the Republicans for the first time in 40 years. Better still, the Republican majority in the House is once again on the former speaker’s small-government wavelength—or was, until he called its plan for a radical 33 overhaul 39 of Medicare “right-wing social engineering”. A grovelling 40 apology may not have rescued his campaign from this disastrous 41 start. Nor does a history of extramarital affairs, one conducted while he was trying to impeach 42 Mr Clinton over the Monica Lewinsky affair, endear him to the average voter. Nearly two out of three who told Pew they had heard of Mr Gingrich said there was no chance they would vote for him. Though still in the fray 43, he has just taken time out for a cruise of the Greek islands with Callista, his (third) wife.
　　纽特??金里奇的参选前景则光明的多。他本人富有多金，又是1994年“共和党革命”的发起者，当时共和党人时隔40年重掌众议院。作为众议院多数党的共和党与这位前议长在所谓的小政府理念上持相同政见，且十分认同他号召进行的“右派社会工程”医疗改革方案。这两点使得金里奇的参选前景更加光明。低声下气的道歉对于如此糟糕的选战开局已经于事无补。在克林顿和莫尼卡??莱温斯基的性丑闻东窗事发之时，纽特??金里奇曾试图弹劾克林顿，即便如此，他也没能得到普通选民的支持。据皮尤研究中心调查结果显示，将近三分之二知道金里奇其人的美国人表示他们不会投票给他。尽管选情不容乐观，他依然有时间和他的（第三任）妻子佳丽斯塔去希腊群岛巡游。
　　Herman Cain is Mr Gingrich’s opposite: the self-made pizza mogul and talk-show host started as an unknown and has soared in the polls by preaching “common-sense business solutions”. Tea-partiers lap up his speeches, and by general consent he “won” the first televised debate in South Carolina last month, though most of the big names were not there. Another good performer, who joined the race this week, was Rick Santorum, the former senator from Pennsylvania who failed to win re-election in 2006, in part because of his extreme social conservatism.
　　赫曼??凯因的情况与金里奇正相反。这位披萨大亨兼访谈节目主持人开始的时候籍籍无名，后因鼓吹“常识性业务解决方案”而获得支持，他的演讲茶党听来很受用，在大部分重量级参选人物没有参加的情况下，上个月一致通过他“赢”得了南卡罗来纳州首场电视辩论会。瑞克??桑托勒姆也于本周宣布参选，这位前宾夕法尼亚州参议员在2006年竞选连任时失败，他所持的极端社会保守主义观点是构成他落选的部分原因所在。
　　The field may grow again. Popular governors such as Mitch Daniels of Indiana, Haley Barbour of Mississippi, Chris Christie of New Jersey 44 and Rick Perry of Texas chose not to run when Mr Obama looked unbeatable. If that changes, so might the calculations of some of them—and of other Republican heavyweights such as New York’s former mayor, Rudy Giuliani. The race has only started.
　　也许还会有更多的共和党人参加提名选举。由于奥巴马看似不可战胜，诸如印第安纳州州长米奇??丹尼尔斯，密西西比州州长巴博，新泽西州州长克里斯蒂，德克萨斯州州长瑞克??派瑞这些颇受追捧的州长并未参加提名选举。如果情况有所改变的话，那么上述这些人-还有像是前纽约市长朱利安尼这样的共和党重量级人物都可能参选。竞选这才拉开序幕，各位还请拭目以待。