经济学人09:巴西百达比高盛还好?

 　　Finance and Economics；Better Than Goldman? A Brazilian star heads to market

　　财经；比高盛还好？巴西投行业明星即将上市
　　The announcement on March 1st that BTG Pactual plans an initial public offering (IPO) came after weeks of speculation 1. André Esteves, the Brazilian investment bank's chief executive, had said before that an IPO was a matter of when, not if. A private deal in late 2010 with sovereign-wealth funds and rich families, including the Agnellis and the Rothschilds (both of whom have links with The Economist), had brought in $1.8 billion in return for 18% of the firm. But BTG has spent at least $1.5 billion on a series of takeovers in the past five months, eating up capital. The most recent deal, a cash-and-shares purchase of Celfin Capital, a Chilean brokerage, implied a valuation of $14.8 billion. The moment to list, it seemed, had arrived.
　　3月1日，巴西百达发表声明称公司计划进行首次公开发行（IPO）。此前数周里，人们一直在猜测百达要上市的传闻。这家巴西投行的CEO安德鲁·艾斯泰维斯曾说过，IPO并非是否要做，而是何时做的问题。百达在2010年末曾向一些主权财富基金和几个财势雄厚的家族非公开发行了18%的股份，募得18亿美元。投资者中包括了阿涅利家族和罗斯柴尔德家族（都是《经济学人》股东）。在过去的5个月里，百达展开了一系列收购活动，花费了了至少 15亿美元的资本。不久前，百达以现金加股票的方式买下了一家智利的投资经纪公司Celfin Capital，这笔交易暗示了百达的市值应该有148亿美元。上市之日看起来似乎是指日可待了。
　　With more cash, BTG will be able to continue its shopping spree without overstretch, applauds Ceres Lisboa of Moody's, a ratings agency. And Brazil could do with its own investment bank: global players such as UBS and Credit Suisse have been active there for some time but have pulled back because of the financial crisis. “BTG has advantages right now,” says Ms Lisboa, “because it has Brazil expertise 2 and a relative lack of global exposure.”
　　评级机构穆迪投资者服务公司的克瑞斯·里斯本看好百达的这次上市。他认为，拥有更多的现金后，百达便能轻松地继续它的狂欢式收购之旅。而且巴西也需要自己的投行：瑞银集团和瑞士信贷这样的全球性投行一度活跃于巴西市场，但金融危机后它们相继撤离。“百达现在的处境非常有利”里斯本说，“它在巴西市场上有着丰富的经验，同时较少受到全球金融风险的影响。”
　　Mr Esteves's story is not quite rags to riches but is still impressive. He joined Banco Pactual in 1989 as a systems analyst 3, worked his way to the top and sold the bank to UBS in 2006 for $3.1 billion. Three years later his new fund, BTG (the initials stand for Banking 4 and Trading Group but also, wags point out, Better Than Goldman), bought it back from the cash-strapped Swiss bank for $2.5 billion. The Celfin deal implies a price many times that—and, according to S?o Paulo gossip, three times the bank's book value.
　　艾斯泰维斯并非白手起家，但他的成长经历仍然令人印象深刻。他在1989年加入Banco Pactual银行，成为一名计算机系统分析员，尔后一路升迁至公司最高层。2006年，他作价31亿美元将银行卖给了瑞银集团。三年后，他新成立的基金公司BTG（Banking and Trading Group的首字母缩写，但也有人打趣说是Better Than Goldman的简称）又以25亿美元的对价将Banco Pactual从当时急缺资金的瑞银集团手中买了回来。圣保罗路边社传言，对Celfin的收购交易意味着百达的市净率高达3倍。
　　Talk of such multiples makes level-headed types nervous. Three times the value of assets minus liabilities is what Goldman Sachs listed at in 1999; it now trades below book value. Itaú Unibanco, Brazil's biggest private bank, trades at a bit over twice book value; BTG's return on equity 5 is little more than at Itaú, although, at 25%, it is still eye-wateringly high by rich-world standards. But the bank is neither dragged down by the rich world's slump 6 nor attached, like its local rivals, to a big, staid retail 7 arm, says Oliver Leyland of Mirae Asset Global Investments. “These guys have sold hundreds of deals; I'm sure they can sell themselves.”
　　谈起这一倍数，不少沉着冷静的人士都开始紧张起来。高盛在1999年上市的时候，市值也是股东权益的三倍；如今它的市值已经低于账面价值了。巴西最大的私有银行伊塔乌联合银行的市值略高于其账面价值的两倍；百达的净资产收益率是25%，尽管只比伊塔乌要高上一点，但以富裕国家的标准来看算得上极高。百达既没有受到富裕国家经济衰退的拖累，也没有像它巴西本土的对手们那样依赖于一个臃肿保守的经纪零售部门，未来资产环球投资有限公司的奥利弗·利兰如此评价道。“这些家伙已经做了几百笔上市的买卖了，我很有把握他们也能把自己给推销出去。
　　The prospectus 8, when it appears, will be scrutinised not only for growth prospects 9 and strategy—some of the cash is expected to be spent in Asia to capitalise on links between that region and Latin America—but also for reassurances 10 regarding minority rights. BTG plans to offer non-voting shares as well as voting ones, a route few Brazilian firms have taken in recent years. The partners clearly have an eye to future offerings (it is expected to sell 10% of its shares this time) and the importance of maintaining control, says Ricardo Almeida of Insper, a S?o Paulo business school.
　　人们需要在招股说明书发布后做仔细的检查，不仅要查看增长前景和战略部分——一些资金将会投向亚洲市场，从该地区与拉丁美洲的经济联系中获益——还要关注报告中关于保证少数股东权利的部分。百达准备发行无投票权和有投票权的两种股票，这种做法在近年来的巴西市场上少有公司为之。圣保罗市Insper商学院的里卡多·阿尔梅达说，百达的合伙人们显然对即将出售的股份规模（预期这次IPO将售出10%的股份）以及维持公司控制权的重要性有着清醒的认识。
　　BTG's listing will also be watched for signs of a revival 11 in Brazil's moribund 12 IPO market. In 2006 and 2007 companies listed at frothy prices almost weekly, but the most recent IPO was last July, since when a dozen or so planned deals have been postponed 13 or dropped as risk-averse foreign buyers hang on to cash and sellers hold out for higher prices. The sense of urgency is now palpable, says Paulo Sergio Dortas of Ernst & Young, an accounting 14 firm: companies know they cannot keep growing without cash. At least 40 are thought to be ready to list if the mood changes. Few will have a story to match BTG's—and as Brazil's biggest dealmaker, it will stand ready to profit when they finally do follow suit.
　　此次百达上市也可视作是巴西停滞不前的IPO市场开始复苏的迹象。2006至2007年间，几乎每周都有公司以虚高的发行价上市。但自去年7月份最后一起IPO以来，大约有十二家左右的公司推迟或者放弃了IPO，原因是厌恶风险的外国买家暂停了购买，与此同时卖方则坚持非高价不出售。安永会计师事务所的保罗·塞尔吉奥·多塔斯说，现在人们终于感觉到紧迫性了：没有资金，公司难以发展。至少有40家公司被认为已做好了上市的准备，只待市场转好。百达的经历不可复制——作为巴西最大的证券交易商，它时刻准备从那些紧随它之后上市的公司身上获利。