经济学人04:小额信贷蓄势再发

 　　Finance and Economics;Microfinance in India;Road to redemption;The industry is starting to revive;

　　财经;印度的小额贷款;救赎之路;小额信贷蓄势再发;
　　India'S microfinance sector 1 was once touted 2 as a saviour 3 of the poor and a good bet for investors 4. The high point for the industry came when SKS—then India's biggest microfinance company with a $1.2 billion loan book, a third of it in the southern state of Andhra Pradesh—went public in July 2010. The $350m offering was more than 13 times oversubscribed.
　　小额信贷在印度曾一度被吹捧为是穷人的救世主，投资者的好选择。当时印度最大的小额信贷公司SKS以12亿美元的放贷额将这一行业推向了高潮，其中三分之一的贷款流向了南部州安得拉邦。该公司在2010年7月上市时，价值3亿5000万美元的新股被超额认购13倍多。
　　Things went downhill fast. Many in the industry admit that runaway 5 growth spurred reckless lending to poor Indians. Just months after the SKS listing, Andhra Pradesh's state government accused the industry of strong-arm collection tactics that drove some farmers to suicide. It issued suffocating 6 rules; almost all loans in the state were written off; business ground to a halt. But the industry is starting to revive, with regulators in a far more central role.
　　然而这一形式却急转直下。很多业内人士承认小额信贷的疯狂发展刺激公司把钱轻率地借给穷人。SKS上市几个月后，安得拉邦州政府便控诉信贷业中的暴力收账迫使一些农民自杀。州政府随后下发了遏制条例，使得该州几乎所有小额贷款都被当做坏账核销，当地商业活动也被迫停顿了下来。但现在小额信贷业又将蓄势再发，不过这次管理人员担当着更为核心的角色。
　　Microlenders are attracting capital again. Grameen Capital India, a social-investment bank, says $144m of equity 7 has been injected into microfinance groups in the past 12 months, more than double the amount in the preceding year. The International Finance Corporation, a multilateral lender, invested $18m in Equitas, a mid-sized group in the southern state of Tamil Nadu. SKS, whose loan book is now worth just $325m, raised $47.5m by issuing shares last year.
　　眼下小额放贷公司又在吸引着投资者。印度乡村资本银行是一家社会投资银行，该行表示过去一年里已经将1.44亿美元的股本注入小额信贷集团，相比头一年要高出一倍多。多边放贷人国际金融公司将1800万美元的资金投入到了泰米尔纳德邦一家名为Equitas的中型信贷集团。SKS目前的放贷总额仅有3.25亿美元，其去年增发的新股筹集了4750万美元。
　　Outside Andhra Pradesh microlenders' loan books rose in value by 33% year on year in the third quarter of 2012, according to the Microfinance Institutions Network (MFIN), an industry body. Southern states and the eastern state of West Bengal are new hotspots. Bandhan, a no-frills company based in West Bengal, now has over 4m borrowers and the largest microfinance loan book in the country. Analysts 8 say the sector's outstanding loans are now worth $2 billion-3 billion, compared with a peak of around $5 billion during the boom.
　　小额信贷机构网（MFIN）的数据显示，2012年第三季度里，邦外的信贷公司流向安得拉邦的贷款比去年同期上涨了33%。南方各邦以及东部的孟加拉邦是新的热点投资地带。孟加拉邦的基本服务公司班丹目前已经为400多万人提供过贷款，人数上在印度排名第一。分析师说目前小额信贷的未偿还贷款约为20到30亿美元，而繁荣期时的峰值约为50亿美元。
　　India's central bank is behind the renewed confidence. It released national guidelines for microlenders at the end of 2011 and has set up a licensing 9 system. Although a bill officially appointing the central bank as the industry's regulator is languishing 10 in parliament, these moves have helped stem what M.R. Rao, the boss of SKS, calls a “fear of contagion”, the worry that other states will copy Andhra Pradesh and suddenly draw up new rules.
　　印度中央银行是促成小额信贷复苏的主要原因。2011年年末，中央银行就小额信贷公司出台了国家指导方针，并建成了许可制度。虽然对议会来说，将中央银行指定为这一行业的管者的法案令人难以接受，但这些措施却帮助阻止了SKS老总所说的“蔓延恐惧”，即担心其它各邦会效仿安得拉邦，也突然起草新规定。
　　The guidelines try to draw a line between profits and profiteering. Microlenders' annual interest rates are now capped at 10-12 percentage points above their own borrowing costs, leaving most charging 23-27%. Some charged 40% during the boom; dodgy local loan-sharks, the only alternative source of credit in many rural areas, have even higher rates. Microlenders are also barred from lending to anyone with more than one outstanding loan.
　　指导方针试图划清盈利和暴利之间的界限，规定小额信贷公司的贷款年利率与其成本利率之间的最高差额要在10到12个百分点之间，这使得大部分贷款利率处在23%-27%之间。信贷繁荣时期的年利率有时高达40%，而在很多农村地区，奸诈的高利贷主作为唯一的信贷来源收取的利率甚至比这还要高。方针还禁止小额信贷公司贷款给任何有一笔及以上未偿还贷款的人。
　　But capping profits may end up harming the neediest borrowers, say lenders. Undertaking 11 small transactions in remote areas is not cheap. Chandra Shekhar Ghosh, Bandhan's managing director, says he keeps costs down with one-room branches containing little more than plastic chairs. Alok Prasad, the head of MFIN, warns that others may ditch the hardest-to-reach villages.
　　但是信贷公司表示限定利率最终可能会伤害到最贫困的借款人群。在偏远地区承办小额交易的成本很高。班丹公司总经理钱德拉-谢卡尔 高希说，为了节约开支，他们的分行只占用一个房间，里面只有几个塑料凳。MFIN的总裁阿洛卡-普拉萨德警告道，要是其他的信贷机构，可能就会放弃那些最难抵达的村落。
　　Some microfinance firms are looking beyond small, unsecured loans, which the central bank caps at 50,000 rupees ($910) a pop. Equitas last year set up a subsidiary that sells mortgages to poorer customers. Bandhan has similar plans. P.N. Vasudevan, the managing director of Equitas, says his housing loans, starting at 100,000 rupees, involve lower operating costs, in part because mortgage payments often get transferred via banks and do not require collection. If firms start to gravitate towards these lines of business, that could yet again leave the neediest behind.
　　央行还规定抵押贷款一次不能超过50,000卢布（910美元），但一些小额信贷公司的眼光却没有停留这种小额无担保贷款上。Equitas去年成立了一个子公司，专门为较为贫困的客户提供抵押贷款。班丹公司也有类似的计划。Equitas的总经理P.N.瓦苏德万说他们公司的房贷门槛是100,000卢布，营业成本相对较低，部分原因是按揭付款通常是通过银行转账，不需要亲自去收账。如果小额信贷公司把重心向这些业务转移，最贫困的人群将再次被甩在后面。