VOA双语新闻：14、乌克兰危机和西方制裁影响俄经济

乌克兰危机和西方制裁影响俄经济

Although Russian leaders have downplayed the impact of recent U.S. and European sanctions, analysts 1 say capital has been pouring out of the country as risk-averse investors 3 seek safer returns.

乌克兰危机似乎正在严重伤害俄罗斯经济。尽管俄罗斯领导人刻意淡化最近美国和欧洲的制裁所产生的影响，但分析人士说，规避风险的投资者为寻求更安全的回报，从俄罗斯撤出大量资本。俄罗斯经济目前几乎处于停滞状态。

With Russia’s economy barely growing, some warn the country could slip into a recession as international outrage 4 and economic sanctions intensify 5.

有专家警告说，随着国际公愤和经济制裁升级，俄罗斯很可能陷入衰退。

Russia is the world’s ninth largest economy and last year it expanded by a tepid 6 1.3 percent. But this year, Russia’s economy will be lucky to grow at all. Russian stocks have tumbled nearly 14 percent this year, the ruble has fallen 11 percent against the dollar, and inflation is likely to top 7 percent in March.

俄罗斯是世界第九大经济体。去年俄罗斯经济增长率仅为百分之1.3，而今年哪怕有一点点增长都算不错了。俄罗斯股市今年猛跌近百分之14，卢布对美元贬值百分之11，通胀率3月份很可能达到百分之7。

The economic weakness combined with the threat of more sanctions was enough to prompt the Standard and Poor's ratings agency to revise its outlook from "stable" to "negative."

经济疲软，再加上可能面临更多的制裁，足以让国际评级机构标准普尔将俄罗斯主权评级展望从“稳定”下调为“负面”。

"The poor investment climate and investor 2 sentiment has already extracted a price," said John Chambers 7, chairman of S&P’s sovereign ratings committee, "and that contributed to our lowering our growth forecast for this year and next and assigning the negative outlook because we didn’t think the risks to the rating were any longer balanced."

标准普尔主权评级委员会主席钱伯斯说：“不良投资环境和投资者心态已经使俄罗斯付出了代价，也导致我们下调了今年以及明年的增长预期，并将俄罗斯主权评级展望修正为‘负面’。”

Investors have pulled about $70 billion from Russia’s economy since the crisis began. German Gref, the head of Russia’s state-owned Sberbank, warns the country could slip into recession if the trend continues.

自乌克兰危机至今，投资者已经从俄罗斯撤资700亿美元。俄罗斯国有储蓄银行行长格列夫警告说，如果这种趋势继续下去，俄罗斯可能会陷入衰退。

“Everything depends on what scenario 8 we will see, on how the situation develops," Gref said. "If capital outflows reach $100 billion, the economic growth will likely hit zero.”

“一切都取决于未来的局面，取决于形势的发展。如果资本外流达到1,000亿美元，经济增长率可能就会降至0。”

But Russia is not entirely 9 helpless.  Its central bank has enough capacity to absorb a greater exodus 10 of capital. It could also fight back by shutting off gas exports to Europe, which relies on Russia for about a third of its energy needs.

但俄罗斯也不是完全束手无策。俄罗斯中央银行有足够的能力吸收更多资本外逃造成的冲击。俄罗斯还能够以中断向欧洲出口天然气来回击。欧洲能源需求的大约三分之一要依靠俄罗斯。

Bankrate.com’s Mark Hamrick says that fact is not lost on the European Union.

Bankrate.com的哈姆里克说，欧盟不是没看到这一点。

“It’s the question of unintended consequences of an escalating 11 crisis," he said. "And so what happens if Russia starts taking steps? Then we re-escalate our response, and then the issue of fuel being supplied to Europe becomes a question mark.”

他说：“现在的问题是不断升级的危机会带来意想不到的后果。如果俄罗斯开始采取行动，会发生什么事？我们的反应会随之加剧，然后向欧洲出口能源一事就成一个问号了。”

If that happens, the economic pain could spread around the globe. But it would also hurt Russia, which receives more than 50 percent of its revenues from energy exports.

如果真出现这种情况，经济困境将波及全球。但俄罗斯也会受到伤害，因为俄罗斯财政收入的百分之50以上都来自能源出口。

One way to know if the sanctions are succeeding is when average citizens start feeling the pain, says Boston University professor Igor Lukes.

波士顿大学卢克斯教授说，要知道制裁是否取得成功，一个方法就是看普通民众什么时候开始感受到制裁的影响。

“I think what has to happen is that the sanctions have to have an impact on the overall standard of living in the country," Lukes said, "which then causes a decline in the current enthusiasm of the Russian public for Mr. Putin.”

“我们需要看到的是，制裁措施对俄罗斯总的生活水平产生了影响，那时俄罗斯民众对普京的热情就会渐弱了。”

That may be happening already. Prices for food and imported items are surging and some Muscovites have reported problems accessing funds at banks targeted by U.S. and European sanctions.

这种情况可能已经出现了。食品和进口商品的价格正不断上涨。一些莫斯科人报告说，他们到遭美国和欧洲制裁的银行取钱，遇到了问题。