VOA双语新闻：12、日本科学家预测将再次大地震

　　Experts say there is a high likelihood of a big earthquake hitting the huge metropolis 1 of Tokyo in the next few years. Authorities are trying to ensure the city is as prepared as possible for another large quake.

专家说，日本首都大东京地区很有可能在未来几年内遭受一次大地震袭击。有关当局正努力确保东京做好充分准备，对付另一场大地震。

Earthquake alarms ring at Tokyo's Metropolitan 2 Government headquarters, sending workers running for cover. Across the city, workers in another tower block react to a fire alert. It is part of a city-wide drill organized by the government last month.

东京市政府大楼的地震警报响起，工作人员闻声快速寻找避身处。在城市的另一端，一座大厦里的工作人员也对火灾警报做出反应。这是政府上个月组织的一次全市范围内的演习。

Japanese scientists are warning the likelihood of a big quake striking Tokyo has increased since the huge temblor and tsunami 3 last March in northern Japan.

日本科学家警告，自从日本北部去年三月发生大地震和海啸之后，东京发生大地震的几率增大。

Shinichi Sakai is from the Earthquake Research Institute at Tokyo University. He said, "When we did the calculations, tectonic activity was up by about six or seven times. At that point in time we established there was a 98 percent chance of a quake within 30 years,or for the next four years, it would likely be 70 percent."

日本京都大学地震研究中心的酒井伸一说：“根据我们的计算，地壳运动的剧烈程度比原来增加了6、7倍。我们预测，未来30年内发生地震的几率是98%，未来四年内发生地震的几率是70%。”

Realistic animated 4 models are being used to predict the potential fallout of a large quake on the city, the locations of weaker buildings, fire hazards, and evacuation bottlenecks 5.

仿真动画模型被用来预测东京发生大地震后可能出现的后果，预测构造相对脆弱的建筑物的地点、火灾高发区、以及疏散瓶颈区。

Official estimates say a 7.3 magnitude quake in Tokyo could cause 11,000 casualties and destroy 850,000 buildings.

有关官员预测，如果东京遭受一场7.3级地震的袭击，将可能造成1万1千人身亡，85万座建筑物倒塌。

At Shimizu Corporation in Tokyo, scientists are working on cutting-edge construction technologies to protect against earthquakes.

东京清水建设株式会社的科学家们正在研究能在地震中增强保护的先进建筑科技。

One building is supported on hardened rubber dampeners. Other technologies include suspending buildings from a central pillar, which helps to absorb seismic 6 shocks; and partially 7 floating buildings on water which has been shown to reduce movement significantly.

一座大楼是由硬化了的加湿橡胶支撑的。其他一些科技还包括使大楼围绕一个中心柱悬挂以吸收地震波，以及将大楼部分漂浮在水中，这个方法已经被验证能大幅减小震动。

A chief engineer at Shimizu, Masaaki Saruta, says Tokyo is better prepared than most cities.

清水建设株式会社的首席工程师猿田正明说，东京比大多数城市都更充分地做好了应对地震的准备。

"Recently-constructed buildings are strong enough to withstand a big earthquake. Even older buildings in Tokyo have been strengthened," said Saruta. "I won't say there will be no destruction at all, but we are prepared for this. It is still a work in progress. We need more buildings to include seismic isolation 8 technology and older ones to be additionally strengthened. But Tokyo will not be annihilated 9."

猿田正明说：“新近修建的大楼都足够坚固，能承受一次大地震。东京的旧建筑也都加固过了。我无法确保将来不会发生任何破坏，但我们已经做好准备。目前防护工作仍在进行中，我们需要对更多建筑物采用地震隔离科技，对老建筑物进行二次加固，但是，东京震后将不会瘫痪。”

Amateur footage posted online shows skyscrapers 10 in Tokyo swaying alarmingly when the Tohoku earthquake struck last March. Saruta says it is part of the design.

上传到网上的一段视频中展示了去年三月日本东北部遭受强烈地震袭击时东京的摩天大楼随之摇摆的情形。猿田正明说，那是设计的一部分。

"To be honest, I have never seen anything like that so I was really surprised as well," Saruta. "But basically you do not need to worry about a building even if it's swaying. What I mean is, you would expect a tall building to sway like that because of the design."

猿田正明说:“坦率来讲，我之前也从没见到过那种场景，所以我也非常震惊。但基本上即便一座大楼在摇摆你也不用担心。我的意思是，一座高楼之所以能像那样摇摆是因为那是设计的一部分。”

Last year’s quake, 300 kilometers to the north, shut down much of Tokyo, alerting authorities to prepare for a big earthquake even closer to this huge metropolis.

去年发生在距离东京北部300公里的大地震迫使日本首都暂停了大量活动，这使得当局警觉要让这个国际大都市为发生更近距离的地震而做好准备。