中英双语新闻 对伊朗和美国外交进展的感想

Over recent days we have witnessed some of the most intricate diplomacy 1. The announcement that Iran had met its initial obligations under the nuclear agreement signed last July, is a triumph. It’s all a far cry from the usual blows traded between Iran and the US. Neither side mentioned the ‘axis of evil’ or the big Satan over recent days.

Under the nuclear deal Iran agreed to dismantle 2 substantial elements of its nuclear programme and in the final days of 2015 it shipped 98% of its enriched uranium to Russia. And just last week it deactivated 3 the hard-water reactor 4 at Arak. In return the international community will lift most of the economic sanctions imposed on Iran.

But even the most carefully planned diplomacy must deal with the unexpected. Iran’s detention 5 of the US sailors could have caused difficulties. But their subsequent release, and the public gratitude 6 from the US pointed 7 to changed times. Then the exchange of prisoners between the US and Iran occurred. One by one stumbling blocks were removed.

Most will ask why an agreement has come now and how? It is part of the subtle interplay between diplomacy, defence and development which underpins 8 international policy. But diplomacy is the key part. US Secretary of State John Kerry said, “we are really reminded once again this evening of diplomacy’s power to tackle significant challenges”.

Ultimately diplomacy relies on people and the election in Iran of President Rouhani was a critical element. He welcomed the lifting of the sanctions by saying it was a “glorious victory” and thanked God for the blessing 9.

Diplomacy takes at least two sides to be engaged and involved. It asks for trust which can be tough when hearts have been hardened over years of mistrust and misperception. Ultimately it involves taking a risk and leaving oneself or others exposed to ridicule 10 or embarrassment 11 (most probably at home) if it doesn’t work. It’s a high risk with a high probability of getting stung along the way. All too often diplomacy’s failures are remembered as weaknesses when in actual fact they are most likely strengths.

Faith can provide that strength for many because it often asks us to do the most difficult human things; to be humble 12 when the ego 13 demands arrogance 14; to be vulnerable when others call for strength; to trust when we fear; to believe that the other can change even when that might seem impossible.

Diplomacy, like faith, believes in that possibility. Not as a naive 15 view of human nature, but as an accurate read of humanity, its strengths and weaknesses.

最近几天，我们目睹了一些最复杂的外交事件，宣布伊朗履行了去年7月份签署的核协议是一场胜利，这与伊朗和美国通常的矛盾关系有很大差别，这几天双方都没有提到“邪恶轴心”或是“大魔鬼”。

根据核协议，伊朗同意拆掉其核项目的主要部分，在2015年的最后几天伊朗将98%的浓缩铀运到俄罗斯。就在上周刚关闭了阿拉克的硬水反应堆，作为交换，国际社会将取消对伊朗的大部分经济制裁。

但即使是最详细规划的外交活动也必须应对意外之事，伊朗拘留美国船员一事原本比较难以解决，但后来这些船员获释，美国公众对此表示感激，这样情况就发生了变化。然后美国和伊朗交换囚犯，这样一个个的障碍就被解除了。

大多数人会问为何现在能达成协议，是如何达成的？这是外交、国防和作为外交政策基础的时局微妙的的相互影响。但外交是关键因素，美国国务卿约翰·克里说，“今天晚上我们再次想到外交在解决重大问题上的力量。”

外交最终是要靠人来起作用的，伊朗总统鲁哈尼的当选是个关键因素，他对制裁取消表示欢迎，称之为“光荣的胜利”，并感谢上帝的祝福。

外交需要至少两方的参与，多年的不信任和误解使得双方的心已变硬，难以建立外交所需要的信任。外交最终是需要冒险的，如果外交失败了，那么参与者或其他人就会被嘲笑或身处尴尬之中(很可能在国内面对这些)。参与者很有可能一路不顺，而且人们总是会记得外交上的失败，而事实上外交确是最有可能的力量。

信念能给很多人这种力量，因为它要求我们做对人来说最难的事：当自我想傲慢时表现出谦卑，当他人想获得力量时表现得脆弱，当我们恐惧时能够相互信任，相信他人能够改变，即使这看起来不可能。

而外交就像信念，相信有这样的可能。这不是对人的天性的天真看法，而是对人性及其力量和弱点的准确解读。