经济学人247:苏格兰国民党的新领袖 苏格兰女王

 　　The SNP's new leader

　　苏格兰国民党的新领袖
　　Queen of Scots
　　苏格兰女王
　　Alex Salmond's unflashy successor could yet outshine him
　　亚历克斯·萨蒙德的接班人朴实无华，却更胜一筹
　　ALEX SALMOND, Scotland's most famous secessionist, is prone 1 to displays of grandeur 2. During the campaign for independence over the summer the first minister took to comparing himself to Robert the Bruce, the Scots' leader in their 14th-century wars against the English. However, when the secessionists lost the referendum in September he promptly 3 announced his resignation.
　　苏格兰最著名的分裂主义者亚历克斯·萨蒙德很容易表现出显赫之感。在今年夏季的苏独运动中，这位首席部长将自己比作了罗伯特·布鲁斯，曾在十四世纪领导对抗英格兰人的战争苏格兰国王。然而，分裂主义者们于9月在公投中失利后，他很快就宣告了自己的辞职。
　　苏格兰.jpg
　　His successor as first minister and leader of the Scottish National Party (SNP) is humbler in style. Nicola Sturgeon's speech at her party's conference in Perth on November 15th lacked the bombast 4 of MrSalmond's valedictory 5 address the day before. Ms Sturgeon grew up in modest circumstances and owes her smooth rise through the political ranks to judicious 6 alliance building (specifically, a decade-long collaboration 7 with MrSalmond).
　　他的继任者，作为首届首席部长和苏格兰国民党（SNP）的领袖，相比而言行事谦逊。11月15号，SNP于帕斯召开会议，尼古拉·斯特金在会上的发言并没有像前一天萨尔蒙德的离职演讲那样天花乱坠。斯特金出身平凡，通过明智的联盟建设而在政治头衔上步步升并赢得了今天的政治地位（明确地说，是与萨尔蒙德长达十年的合作）。
　　MrSalmond bequeaths a strikingly upbeat party. Although the secessionists lost September's referendum by 45% to 55%, the SNP has, since then, welcomed pro-independence activists 8 keen to continue the struggle. In under three months its membership has grown from 25,000 to over 85,000 (almost one in 50 Scottish adults is now in the party). One poll of voting intentions by Survation for the Daily Record on November 18th put it on 46% there, largely at the expense of the Labour Party. If repeated in next May's general election, that would give the SNP 52 of Scotland's 59 seats in the House of Commons.
　　萨尔蒙德留下的是一个欣欣向荣的政党。尽管分裂主义者在九月的公投中以45%比55%的票数落败了，但SNP自那以后为仍热心于继续抗争的支持独立者敞开着大门。在三个月内，它的成员就从25，000人上升到了85，000人（约每50个苏格兰成年人中就有一人为该党成员）。11月18号，民调机构Survation为每日纪事报所做的舆论调查显示SNP现有46%的支持率，大部分从工党转投而来。如果明年五月大选情景再现，这将使SNP获得苏格兰下议院59个席位中的52个。
　　Ms Sturgeon, who was sworn in as first minister on November 20th, wants to convert this fleeting 9 surge into lasting 10 power. Her conference speech revealed glimpses of a three-step plan. The first task is to squash her party's social democratic rival, the Labour Party, by shifting to the left. Ms Sturgeon has already moved into Labour territory by pledging to extend free child care, pay government cleaners more and increase spending on health care.
　　斯特金于11月20号宣誓成为首席部长，她希望将这短期的激增转化为持久的战斗力。她的会议演讲透露了三步计划。第一个任务是通过转向左翼，干掉SNP的社会民主党对手工党。斯特金已通过承诺扩大儿童福利范围、提高政府清洁工薪资和增加医疗支出成功打入工党领域。
　　Thus she plans to win enough seats in next year's Westminster election to hold the balance of power in the event of a hung parliament.In her speech in Perth, Ms Sturgeon explained the second pillar of her plan: that she would never support a Conservative-led government. The condition for a deal with Labour, she added, would be the removal of Britain's nuclear deterrent 11 from Scottish waters and the transfer of extensive new powers from London to Edinburgh.
　　因此她计划在明年的议会选举中赢得足够多的席位，因为万一出现悬浮议会，可以掌控权力平衡体系。斯特金在帕斯的演讲中解释了计划的第二个支柱：她绝不会支持由保守党领导的政府。她补充说，与工党合作的条件是将英国的核威慑力量从苏格兰水域移除，并要将广泛的新权力由伦敦转向爱丁堡。
　　The final part of Ms Sturgeon's plan is to bring about a new referendum on independence. Having ruled out any further vote for a generationafter September's plebiscite, in her conference speech she suggested that events—and in particular the risk of England pulling Britain out of the EU—could make it essential. At the very least, that gambit increases her bargaining power in ongoing 12 discussions about further devolution to Scotland.
　　斯图尔金计划的最后一步是进行新一轮的独立公投。在九月的公投后，再进行更新换代的投票已无望，她表示各类事态—尤其是英格兰将英国从欧盟中挤出的风险—可能使得新一轮独立公投十分有必要。起码，在进一步将权力下放到苏格兰的讨论中，这张牌给了她讨价还价的筹码。
　　The signs suggest that the first minister could find herself in a position of remarkable 13 power. Next year's general election will probably produce a hung parliament. If Labour is the largest party, it may rely on the SNP. If the Tories lead, the risk of Britain's exit from the EU could trigger a new independence referendum. In either case, the modest Ms Sturgeon might just achieve more in power than the flashy MrSalmond ever did.
　　这些迹象表明，这位首席大臣能察觉自己处在一个权高位重的位置。明年的大选也许会产生一个悬浮议会。如果工党是最大党，它也许会依靠SNP。如果托利党领先，英国退出欧盟带来的风险也许会触发新一轮独立公投。不论是哪种情况，谦逊的斯图尔金都可能比光鲜亮丽的萨尔蒙德获得更多权力。