经济学人266:阿根廷债务 别签协议啦

 　　Argentina's debt

　　阿根廷债务
　　Let's not make a deal
　　别签协议啦
　　Argentina may spurn 1 a chance to settle with its creditors 2
　　阿根廷或将还债机会弃如敝履
　　WHEN Argentina defaulted on its debt for the second time in 13 years last July, the government blamed a pesky clause in its contracts with bondholders. The so-called Rights Upon Future Offers (RUFO) clause was set to expire on December 31st, in theory opening the way to a settlement with bondholders who had refused Argentina's earlier offers of partial payment. A deal would make it easier to borrow dollars, which the country badly needs to pay for imports. But the president, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, may spurn the opportunity.
　　去年七月，阿根廷发生了十三年来的第二次债务违约，而政府却将这次违约归咎于与债权人签订的合同中的某项麻烦条款。由于之前债权人拒绝阿根廷部分偿还，这项本应于12月31日到期的“未来发行权利”（RUFO）条款理论上可以解决与债权人之间的债务问题。这项协议可以为阿根廷借入美元提供更多便利，有了美元，阿根廷就可以解决进口商品所使用货币的燃眉之急。不过，克里斯蒂娜·费尔南德斯·基什内尔总统却有可能将这一机会弃如敝履。
　　After its previous default (in 2001) Argentina offered RUFO as a way to entice 4 bondholders to swap 5 the old debt for new bonds worth much less than the original ones. The clause says that any future deal offered to some bondholders would be extended to all of them. In 2012 a court in New York ruled that Argentina would have to pay in full the small minority of bondholders who refused the debt swap. These are mostly American hedge funds, which bought the bonds at a fraction of their face value. Argentina argued that complying with the court order would trigger billions in payments to all holders 3 of bonds issued under New York law, and so chose to default. Since the court's ruling, its foreign-exchange reserves have dwindled 6 to $30 billion, less than needed to pay for six months' imports. Low commodity prices mean that few dollars are flowing in.
　　上次（2001年）债务违约后，阿根廷通过 RUFO 怂恿债券持有人进行债务掉期，也就是说用原先价格较低的旧债券交换价格较高的新债券。这一条款规定，合同签署后，政府和部分债券持有人达成的协议将适用于全体债券持有人。 2012年，纽约一家法院判定阿根廷政府应向拒绝债务掉期的少数债券持有人一次付清所有债务。后者主要是美国对冲基金，它们当初就是以远远低于面值的价格买入了阿根廷债券。阿根廷称，根据纽约法律，按法庭裁决行事将导致对债券持有人支付高达数十亿的费用，于是便选择了违约。法院作出判决后，阿根廷外汇储备已缩减至300亿美元，甚至不足以支付六个月的商品进口。较低物价意味着美元流入会更少。
　　阿根廷债务问题.jpg
　　The government has responded by further restricting imports, which has led to shortages of supplies to factories and of some consumer goods. That is one reason why the economy is expected to shrink by around 1% in 2015. Debt payments during the year will siphon off some 40% of international reserves. In December Argentina tried to reduce that drain by offering holders of bonds due for repayment 7 new securities that mature in 2024. The gambit failed miserably 8: just 4% of creditors volunteered to exchange their 2015 bonds.
　　由于限制进口导致工厂供货和部分日用品出现了短缺，政府已对进一步限制进口做出了回应。这便是阿根廷经济增速预计将在2015年下跌1个百分点的原因之一。全年的债务将造成外汇储备流失40%。十二月时，阿根廷曾试图给债券持有人提供2024年到期的新债券，以避免本国外汇储备消耗过快。这项策略后以惨败告终：只有4%的债权人自愿用2015年债券进行兑换。
　　Things are so desperate that the government will soon make an attractive offer to holdout bondholders, some observers believe. The expiration 9 of the RUFO clause makes the cost bearable; the government would not have to make the same offer to the other bondholders.
　　一些观察家认为，当前情况万分危急，政府不久就会制定出富有吸引力的政策来维系人心。这次RUFO条款期满后，违约成本尚可担负；但政府今后不会再和其他债券持有人签署同样的协议了。
　　But that is a minority view. The real obstacles to paying off the holdouts have always been political rather than contractual, many think. Ms Fernández and her advisers 10 demonised them as “vultures” and blamed them for many of Argentina's woes 11. To pay them now would be awkward, and the economic gains might be modest. Luis Secco of Perspectivas, a consulting firm, argues that turmoil 12 in Venezuela, Russia and other emerging markets will make investors 13 hesitant to lend to Argentina. Even if the government reaches an agreement with creditors, “it won't rain dollars,” he says.
　　不过，这只是小部分人的看法。许多人认为，一直以来，政府无力清偿债务的真正原因都不是合同问题，而是各种政治方面的因素。在费尔南德斯总统及其幕僚那里，债券持有人遭到了妖魔化—这群“秃鹫”俨然成了阿根廷诸多灾难的罪魁祸首。现在就给他们还债听起来甚是荒唐，经济也可能只是适度增长。咨询公司 Perspectivas 的 Luis Secco 认为，委内瑞拉、俄罗斯以及其他新兴市场的混乱局面将使投资者对于收购阿根廷债券犹豫不决。即使政府同债权人达成了协议，“天上也不会掉美元，”他这样说。
　　Besides, ask sceptics, why should Ms Fernández strike a bargain that would bring political benefits mainly to her successor? She will stand down as president after elections next October; none of the prospective 14 candidates so far has her backing. The easiest course of action would be to hand off the debt fiasco to the next president—and let the economy pay the price.
　　此外，怀疑人士还提出了一个问题：为什么费尔南德斯总统会签署一份政治利益主要荫泽后任的协议呢？过了明年十月，她就要从总统任上退休了；这些候选人里并无她所支持的对象。最简单的做法就绕过债务泥潭，让下一任总统收拾烂摊子—代价就让经济来付吧。