经济学人257:世界最大珠宝商"周大福"上市

 　　Chinese jewellers

　　中国珠宝商
　　Beijing bling
　　珠光宝气
　　The world’s largest jeweller goes public
　　世界最大珠宝商上市
　　AT FIRST blush, Chow Tai Fook (CTF) may seem to be in a spot of bother. The secretive Hong Kong-based chain of jewellery stores, which on some measures is the world’s largest, has long wanted to float shares on the Hong Kong stock exchange. Alas 1, this week it was forced to scale back both the valuation and the size of its planned offering. Market rumours 2 now suggest it will float about $3 billion-$4 billion-worth of shares next month.
　　乍一看，神秘兮兮的“周大福”似乎有点儿麻烦。这一总部设在香港的珠宝连锁店按照某些标准已是世界最大，且长期以来希望在香港证券交易所发行股票。哎，本周它却被迫削减估价和计划发行的规模。市场传闻表明，“周大福”将在下月发行价值30到40亿美元的股票。
　　That may be less lucrative 3 than it hoped for, but do not shed any tears for Cheng Yu-tung, the firm’s billionaire boss. The weakness of this deal (which would still rank as one of the bigger placements this year) has more to do with market turmoil 4 than any specific snags confronting CTF. Though almost unknown in the West, the firm is a goliath, with a reported $4.5 billion in sales last year, leaping ahead at a rate of over 50% a year. It is already more than twice the size of Tiffany & Co, a posh American jeweller. A recent analysis by George Washington University and L2, a think-tank, found the brand is better known in China than Rolex, Bulgari or Tiffany.
　　那或许没有“周大福”期望的那么有利可图，但不要为其亿万富翁老板郑裕彤掉一滴眼泪。股票发行有所削减（仍然是今年较大的一次发行），更多的是受市场波动的影响，而不是由于“周太福”本身的任何具体问题。尽管西方对“周大福”几乎一无所知，但这家公司是头巨鳄。据报道它去年的销售额为45亿美元，以一年超过50%的速率跳跃式发展，其规模已是一流的美国珠宝商蒂芙尼的两倍还多。近期由乔治?华盛顿大学和智库L2作出的分析发现，在中国，“周大福”这一品牌的知名度超过“劳力士”、“宝格丽”和“蒂芙尼”。
　　Considering the booming market in China, where most of the firm’s 1,500 or so outlets 6 are located, the future positively 7 glisters for CTF. On some estimates, China’s jewellery market is already a 250 billion yuan ($39 billion) business, growing at perhaps 15% a year. Part of the growth comes from the surge in wealth among the very richest.
　　想一想“周大福”近1500家左右零售店大多位于中国这一繁荣市场，其未来确实一片光明。据一些估算，中国的珠宝市场已有2500亿人民币（合390亿美元）的业务，每年大概以15%的速率增长。部分增长来源于最富阶层激增的财富。
　　The firm’s real strength, however, lies in its ability to reach the rising middle classes who live outside the biggest cities and who are also splashing out to buy gems 8 and gold (CTF can claim credit for getting mainland Chinese to embrace the more lucrative 24-carat variety). The World Gold Council reckons that China is the world’s fastest-growing market for gold jewellery and the second-biggest after India. There are now signs that Chinese consumers, confronted with rising inflation, are buying gold as a hedge.
　　不过，“周大福”的真正优势在于其将触角延伸至崛起中的中产阶级的能力。这些中产生活在大城市以外，在购买宝石和黄金上同样不惜千金一掷。（“周大福”以让中国内地人接受更赚钱的24克拉类型而沾沾自喜）。世界黄金协会认为中国已成了黄金珠宝市场增长最快的国家，在规模上仅次于印度。现在更有种新的迹象：面对日益加剧的通货膨胀，中国消费者开始购买黄金保值。
　　It is true that CTF has rivals, but it seems better positioned to conquer China. Luk Fook, for example, is another Hong Kong jeweller expanding rapidly on the mainland—but its strategy relies chiefly on using franchisees 9, whereas CTF ensures high quality and branding by directly controlling its far-flung outlets. Foreign firms are also expanding—Prada had a $2.5 billion stock placement in Hong Kong earlier this year, and Cartier has more than 110 bustling 10 stores on the mainland—but they rarely stray outside the big cities.
　　没错，“周大福”是有竞争对手，不过在赢得中国市场方面它似乎更有优势。举例来说，香港另外一家珠宝商“六福”（Luk Fook）是另外一家在中国内地迅速扩张的公司，但其战略主要是连锁经营，而“周大福”则是确保高品质、通过直接控制广泛的零售店打出自己的品牌。外国公司同样不甘示弱：今年早些时候“普拉达”在香港发行25亿美元的股票配售，“卡地亚”在中国大陆有超过110家商店，来往顾客络绎不绝。不过在大城市之外鲜见它们的身影。
　　Indeed, CTF could even profit by offering global rivals a distribution channel in remote regions. Local knowledge matters, for tastes differ widely: jade 11 is popular in interior provinces, for example, while coastal 12 regions prefer simple designs. CTF has just struck a deal with De Beers to market one of the diamond company’s brands in its outlet 5 in Changsha, the capital of Hunan province. Global markets may be punishing CTF today, but the heartland of China looks likely to reward its investors 13 for years to come.
　　实际上，如果为全球竞争对手在偏远地区提供一个分销渠道，“周大福”会获利更多。熟悉当地情况十分重要，因为品味往往各不相同：比方说，翡翠在内陆省份较受欢迎，而沿海地区则偏爱简单的设计。“周大福”刚刚与“德比尔斯”（De Beers ）达成一笔交易，在湖南省会长沙零售店推广其品牌。“周大福”现在可能会在全球市场失利，不过数年以后，中国中心地带可能会给其投资者带来回报。