非洲有望打破全球稀土供应格局

 　　Vital for so many modern technologies, rare earths remain among the most sought-after minerals on the planet. It was recently suggested at the American Association for the Advancement 1 of Science that the sea beds should be mined for them.

　　对如此多现代技术必不可少的稀土，仍然是地球上最抢手的矿物之一。美国科学促进会(American Association for the Advancement of Science)最近提议应开采海床以获得稀土。
　　Currently, global demand is met largely by China. However, the fact that Rainbow Rare Earths, which owns a project in Burundi, successfully listed on the London Stock Exchange at the end of January has prompted speculation 2 that China’s dominance may finally be challenged. Such talk may be premature 3 but it does suggest that now is a good time to assess the current state of play in the market.
　　目前，全球稀土需求大部分由中国的供应满足。然而，在布隆迪拥有一处稀土项目的Rainbow Rare Earths公司1月底在伦敦证交所成功上市，这引发了对于中国的主导地位可能终将受到挑战的猜测。此类说法或许言之过早，但这的确表明，现在正是评估稀土市场当前格局的好时机。
　　China clearly continues to dominate global production. The latest available statistics (for 2015, from the US Geological Survey) give its annual production as slightly more than 100,000 tons. Australia, second in the list, trails with 10,000 tons. Only three other countries produce more that 1,000 tons a year (the US, Russia and Thailand with 4,100 tons, 2,500 tons and 1,100 tons, respectively). Africa currently figures nowhere.
　　中国显然继续主导着全球稀土生产。能获得的最新统计数据（来自美国地质调查局(US Geological Survey)的2015年的数据）显示，中国稀土的年产量略高于10万吨。排名第二的澳大利亚年产仅1万吨。其他年产量超过1000吨的国家只有3个（美国、俄罗斯、泰国，分别为4100吨、2500吨和1100吨）。非洲目前排不上号。
　　Despite China’s dominance of production, the same is not true of deposits. It is estimated that China has no more than 30 per cent of global deposits. The problem lies in the cost of bringing new deposits into production and the ability of one country with such a dominant 4 position to flood the market and bring down prices, hitting the viability 5 of new projects.
　　虽然中国在稀土生产上占据主导地位，但储量方面情况并非如此。据估计，中国稀土储量占全球总储量不超过30%。问题在于将新发现储量转化为产量的成本以及一个拥有绝对主导地位的国家能够用海量供应压低价格、从而让新项目难以存活。
　　As well as price challenges, new projects face environmental hurdles 6. Projects in China have resulted in contaminated groundwater, radioactive tailings and other environmental issues.
　　除了价格挑战，新项目还面临环境方面的障碍。中国的稀土项目带来了地下水污染、放射性尾矿及其他环境问题。
　　In the 1990s, the US supplied its domestic demand for rare earths from its own production. But that ceased when low-cost minerals from China entered the market. It is speculated that China continues to stockpile rare earths, maintaining to some extent its ability to control global prices.
　　上世纪90年代，美国本国的稀土生产可以满足其国内需求。但来自中国的低价稀土进入美国市场后，美国就停止了稀土生产。外界猜测，中国将继续囤积稀土，在一定程度上保持其控制全球稀土价格的能力。
　　Mounting a challenge to Chinese dominance has been talked of for years. Several current macro trends are now likely to accelerate such a challenge. Demand for rare earths is set to increase significantly.
　　向中国的主导地位发起挑战是一个老生常谈的话题。当前的几大宏观趋势如今很可能加速这样的挑战。对稀土的需求势必将大幅增加。
　　Historically, their major use has been in components 7 for the telecoms, computer and other electronics industries (they are particularly important in making high-performance magnets). A growing need for enhanced battery technologies will boost demand. A rise in protectionism suggests new strategic imperatives 8 for countries such as the US and Russia to recommence or increase domestic production.
　　过去，稀土主要被用于制造电信、计算机和其他电子工业的组件（稀土对高性能磁体制造尤为重要)。对增强型电池技术不断增长的需求将提振对稀土的需求。贸易保护主义的兴起对美国、俄罗斯等国意味着新的战略紧迫性，即需要重新开始或增加国内稀土生产。
　　It is widely acknowledged that, outside North America and Australia, southern and eastern Africa offer the greatest potential for rare earth production, especially in South Africa, Tanzania, Malawi and Mozambique. Kenya, Burundi, Zambia and Namibia are also mentioned.
　　目前公认的是，除了北美和澳大利亚，非洲南部和东部拥有的生产稀土的潜力最大，特别是南非、坦桑尼亚、马拉维和莫桑比克。肯尼亚、布隆迪、赞比亚和纳米比亚也是。
　　Rainbow Rare Earths’ IPO is premised on its Gakara project in Burundi. The project is not yet producing and further exploration will be needed. The risks described in the IPO prospectus 9 are a reminder 10 of the difficulties of developing such projects, including pricing and environmental challenges and the need to produce ore at the required levels of concentration.
　　Rainbow公司的首次公开发行(IPO)，是以其在布隆迪Gakara的项目为前提的。该项目尚未投产，还需要进一步的勘探。公司招股说明书中描述的风险提醒了开发此类项目的种种困难，包括定价、环境挑战以及需要生产出符合元素浓度要求的矿石。
　　Rainbow raised ?8m at its IPO, at the top end of its target range. It has clearly generated interest in the rare earth industry. However, by itself the project is unlikely to make a large dent 11 in the overall global supply position. That will require bringing many more projects into production in the near to medium term. With the Lynas project in Australia being the only significant producer outside China there is a long way to go before Chinese domination is diluted 12. Clearly, though, African projects can make a significant contribution to correcting the imbalance.
　　Rainbow的首次公开发行筹集了800万英镑，处于目标区间的顶端。该公司显然已引起稀土行业的兴趣。然而，这一项目本身不大可能对全球整体供应状况造成很大影响。改变现状需要在短期至中期内让更多项目投产。鉴于唯一值得注意的非中国稀土生产商只有澳大利亚的Lynas公司一家，要瓦解中国的主导地位还有很长的路要走。不过，很显然，非洲的稀土项目可以在修正这种失衡方面做出重大贡献。
　　Ian Coles is a partner and head of the Global Mining Group at Mayer Brown LLP.
　　伊恩?科尔斯(Ian Coles)是美亚博律师事务所(Mayer Brown LLP)全球矿业小组主管、合伙人。