亚洲世纪的战争与和平 全球重心东移

 　　In his timely new book, Easternisation, Gideon Rachman articulates a clear and persuasive 1 idea: that recent western exertions 2 in the Middle East, the crises that grab the headlines and consume the energies of world leaders, will be seen in the arc of history as something of a sideshow, a secondary plotline that will ultimately be obscured by the rise of Asia, with its humming factories, inexhaustible innovation and competitive spirit.

　　吉迪恩?拉赫曼(Gideon Rachman)在他这本很及时的新书《东方化》(Easternisation)中，阐述了一个明确而具说服力的观点：西方近年在中东的折腾，一系列占据新闻头条和消耗着世界领导人精力的危机，在历史的弧线上将被视为一段插曲、一个次要情节，最终将在亚洲崛起的大背景下黯然失色；近年亚洲的特征是工厂轰鸣、创新不断和竞争精神高涨。
　　In his quest to capture this dramatic reorientation of global power — one that is now fully 3 under way — Rachman, the FT’s chief foreign affairs commentator 4, takes us seamlessly from one Asian capital to the next, and across the world to Washington and London. Along the way, he introduces readers to the key leaders, thinkers and innovators in this overarching drama, weaving their stories into an elaborate, vivid story. We learn from an influential 5 Chinese strategic thinker contemplating 6 Beijing’s global priorities; a Japanese academic who specialises in Asia’s complex history; a wizened 7 Singaporean financier with decades of market experience; an Indian manufacturer striving to compete against south-east Asian competitors; and many others who bring keen insights and rich detail to Rachman’s account.
　　在他捕捉全球实力戏剧化转移（目前在全方位展开）的探索中，身为英国《金融时报》首席外交事务评论员的拉赫曼，丝丝入扣地带领我们从一个亚洲首都到另一个，并跨越半个地球到达华盛顿和伦敦。一路上，他向读者介绍了这一主要历史剧情中的关键领导人、思想家和创新者，将他们的故事交织成一场复杂、生动的剧情。我们读到了很多人的高见，他们包括：一位正在思考北京方面全球战略重点的有影响力的中国战略思想家、一位专门研究亚洲错综复杂历史的日本学者、一位拥有数十年市场经验、久经风霜的新加坡金融家、一位努力与东南亚对手展开竞争的印度制造商，这些人和其他许多人的敏锐洞见和丰富细节在拉赫曼的笔下栩栩如生。
　　They will also learn from Rachman himself, who brings an impressionistic narrative 8 into sharp focus with his own analysis. His deft 9 use of historical allusion 10 matches his fluency 11 in the contemporary policy debates that reverberate 12 around Asian capitals, and he engages with the ideas of Henry Kissinger, Joseph Nye and other prominent writers on the Asian Century about how to measure the region’s rapid rise.
　　他们也能从拉赫曼本人学到东西，他用自己的分析给一种印象派的叙述带来一个清晰焦点。他对历史典故的灵巧使用，与他对亚洲各国首都当前展开的政策辩论的娴熟描述相得益彰。他还与亨利?基辛格(Henry Kissinger)、约瑟夫?奈(Joseph Nye)等提到亚洲世纪的著名作者，就如何衡量该地区的快速崛起进行了思想的碰撞。
　　Written largely before the panic-inducing rise of Donald Trump 13, the book nevertheless anticipates some of the domestic difficulties that plague America’s quest to respond to these shifting sands. Rachman discusses growing concerns over trade, deepening anxieties about a more assertive 14 and occasionally provocative 15 China, as well as a foreign policy agenda dominated by Russia and the Middle East.
　　这本书大部分写在唐纳德?特朗普(Donald Trump)令人惊恐地异军突起之前，尽管如此，该书仍预见了美国的一些国内困难，这些困难困扰着美国应对大格局变化的努力。拉赫曼探讨了美国人对自由贸易越来越担忧；对更为强势且偶尔展露挑衅意味的中国不断加深的焦虑；以及被俄罗斯和中东主导的外交政策议程。
　　This excellent book has some minor 16 shortcomings. The author focuses perhaps inordinately 17 on the notion of American decline, a worry admittedly shared by many in Asia who are fearful that China will fill the potential power vacuum. Like many around the world, Rachman seems to question whether the US has the strength or stomach to grapple with the coming challenges.
　　这本优秀的著作有一些小缺点。作者也许格外关注了美国衰落的观点；应该承认，亚洲许多人都有这一担忧，他们惧怕中国会填补潜在的实力真空。就像世界各地很多人一样，拉赫曼似乎在质疑美国是否有实力或意愿来迎接扑面而来的挑战。
　　History would suggest, however, that we should be careful not to exaggerate American difficulties, and resist the tendency to discount the sometimes hidden qualities of American power, including its national resilience, innovation, and capacity for reinvention, that have animated 18 the last half-century.
　　然而历史似乎表明，我们应当小心，不要夸大美国的困难，也不要低估美国实力中有时不显山露水的质素，包括国家抗压能力、创新力，以及再造能力，正是这些特点使美国在过去半个世纪生机勃勃。
　　Concerns over American decline have surfaced in every decade of the postwar era, but they have often been more reflections of international anxieties than clear-eyed assessments 19 of the American strategic situation.
　　有关美国衰落的担忧在战后差不多每10年都会浮现一次，但它们往往在更大程度上反映了国际间的焦虑，而不是对美国战略形势的思路清晰的评估。
　　Policymakers and journalists alike are fond of coining new phrases and concepts to help frame emerging developments on the global stage, and the book’s title is perhaps an example of rhetorical over-reach. I suspect this change in the global tides may be overstated, in part because easternisation is not a coherent or competing ideology 20. As the book itself reveals, what is happening in countries from Japan and China to India is not an identical but rather a highly individualised developmental process — and one that in many places hews 21 to a western template for modernity, as the rise of Asian democracy, free trade and rule of law attests 22.
　　政策制定者们和新闻从业人员一样，酷爱炮制新词和新概念，以帮助框定全球舞台上风起云涌的新动态，本书的标题可能就是一个言过其实的例子。我怀疑这种全球潮流的改变可能被夸大了，部分是因为东方化并不是一个自成一体或处于对立面的意识形态。正如本书所展示的那样，从日本、中国到印度，各国所走的道路并不相同，而都是一个高度个性化的发展过程，而且很多国家在这方面借鉴西方的现代化模板，正如亚洲民主制度、自由贸易和法治的崛起所证明的那样。
　　From this perspective, easternisation is perhaps best understood as a gradual shift to the east rather than an orientating 23 narrative emerging from the east, and Rachman is on stronger ground when he describes easternisation as a geographic 24 concept — a global movement to the place where power is playing out and where history will reside.
　　从这个视角看，东方化也许最好被理解为向东方逐渐转移，而非从东方兴起一种方向性的叙述；拉赫曼在从地理概念上描绘东方化（一种全球性的转移，目的地是大国实力博弈，结果将会载入史册的地方）时更站得住脚。
　　Rachman’s previous work, Zero-Sum World, helps set the stage for his current book, and many of the themes from the former volume take fuller shape in the latter. Rachman’s flair 25 for rich anecdotes 26, clever writing, strong analysis and original insight are impressive.
　　拉赫曼此前的著作《零和世界》帮助他为这本新书搭建了舞台，许多来自前一本书的主题，在新书中有了更丰满的形态。拉赫曼在丰富轶事、流畅文笔、犀利分析和独到洞察力方面的水平令人折服。
　　Even with its modest rhetorical embellishments, Easternisation hits its mark, with a wide range of arguments and prognostications that scholars and policymakers must contemplate 27 as we consider the coming Asian century.
　　即便存在一些次要的措辞瑕疵，《东方化》一书仍切中要点，提出了广泛的论点和预言，这些都是学者和政策制定者在思索即将来临的亚洲世纪时必须斟酌的。