经济学人342:纽特·金里奇的竞选——败局已定

 　　WHEN Newt Gingrich’s presidential campaign foundered 1 last summer, leading to the mass resignation of his staff and reports that his campaign debt exceeded $1m, the problem was not that he seemed to prefer luxury cruises through Greece and Turkey with Mrs Gingrich (speaking, right) to the messy business of a political campaign. The problem, as he was only too happy to explain, was that “much like Reagan and Margaret Thatcher 2, I’m such an unconventional political figure that you really need to design a unique campaign that fits the way I operate and what I’m trying to do.”

　　当纽特·金里奇在去年夏天的总统竞选活动中败阵，导致他的竞选团队人员大量辞职，同时被媒体爆出因竞选他已负债超过100万美元时，他的问题并非比起竞选活动中的各种繁琐事务，他更喜欢和他的妻子（图右说话的女士）一起来个希腊或土耳其豪华游艇巡游。正如他津津乐道的那样，他的问题在于他说的“我是像里根和撒切尔夫人这样卓尔不凡的政治人物，因此你们要为我设计独一无二的竞选活动，要适合我所做的以及我想要做的”。
　　What that meant in practice was shilling for money over the internet and turning in some incandescently 3 angry debate performances. It worked, after a fashion. He began rising in the polls. He announced directly, “I’m going to be the nominee 4.” But then people started voting. The first three contests split, with Rick Santorum squeaking 5 to victory in Iowa after spending far more time there than any other candidate; Mitt 6 Romney winning New Hampshire, where he has a home; and Mr Gingrich unexpectedly trouncing the opposition 7 in South Carolina. Then he lost Florida and Nevada in quick succession, his snarling 8 pomposity 9 punctured 10 by a Romney barrage 11 of negative ads.
　　实际上，这只不过意味着他的竞选团通过因特网筹了点钱，然后就演变成一场声势浩大的骂战而已。这有些作用。然后他的民调支持率开始攀升。他直接宣布:"我将成为党内提名人。”但另一方面人们已经开始投票了。前三名的竞争者各有胜负，里克·桑托伦在爱荷华州投入的时间比任何一个候选人都多，侥幸获胜；米特·罗姆尼在新罕布什尔州获胜，这是他家乡所在地；然后金里奇出人意料的在南卡罗莱纳州击败对手。紧接着，金里奇在佛罗里达州和内华达州败下阵来，因为罗姆尼用铺天盖地的负面广告，大肆抨击他那咄咄逼人，不可一世的嘴脸。
　　The Gingrich campaign had a strategy, of sorts: their hero would win the South, ending with a victory in Louisiana’s primary on March 24th, whereupon momentum 12 would work its magic. That did not happen. Aside from South Carolina, Mr Gingrich has won precisely 13 one of the 38 states and territories that have so far voted: his adopted home state of Georgia. In late March he sacked one-third of his campaign staff. On April 3rd he decisively lost Maryland, Washington, DC and Wisconsin, his wife’s home state. Mr Romney improved his delegate total to 634 against 263 for his closest rival, Mr Santorum. The race now goes quiet until April 24th, when five states vote, the biggest prizes being New York and Mr Santorum’s home state of Pennsylvania.
　　金里奇的竞选团队有一套策略，分为几步：他们的主角金里奇将以南部获胜，其中最后一战是3月24日路易斯安那州的初选胜利，接着竞选势头就会发挥它的魔力。可是事与愿违。除了南卡罗来纳州，金里奇在已经投票的38个州和地区中只在一个地区获得胜利：他的第二故乡乔治亚州。3月底，他把自己竞选团队中三分之一的人给炒鱿鱼了。4月3日，他输掉了马里兰州，华盛顿和他妻子的家乡威斯康星州这些决定性地区的竞选。罗姆尼获得代表人的票数总计提升至634票，其最大的竞争对手桑托利姆则获得263票。选情现在则是平平无奇，直到4月24日才会有大的波动，因为到那时五个大州将开始投票，拥有最多票数的则是纽约和桑托利姆的家乡宾夕法尼亚州.
　　For the Gingrich campaign, however, the real problem had become clear some time before this week’s results. It was the voters. They kept making the wrong decision. And so Mr Gingrich’s flack announced that they were going to be “focusing exclusively on what it’ll take to win what we’re going to be calling a big-choice convention in August.” In other words, having failed to appeal to a majority, or even a plurality, of voters—the people who ostensibly select the candidate—Mr Gingrich will appeal to their superiors to correct the peons’ error. During this campaign Mr Gingrich has consistently claimed that he frightens, and is running against, “the Washington establishment”, which is of course laughable; he served ten terms in Congress before becoming a “consultant”, think-tanker and free-floating policy wonk. This strategy buries even the pretence 14 of anti-establishmentarianism.
　　对于金里奇的竞选来说，其存在的真正问题在本周投票结果揭晓前一段时间就已经变得清晰了.问题出在选民上。选民们一直犯错。金里奇的广告中宣称，他们将“只把重点放在能让他们赢得所谓‘8月大抉择会战’的那些人身上”。换句话说，因为他们未能获得大多数，甚至是决定性数目选民的支持，于是金里奇将获取这些人中有话语权的人的支持，来纠正这些劳苦大众的错误。竞选中金里奇一直宣称，他害怕，但又将反对”华盛顿权贵“们到底，这一说法显然十分可笑。早在金里奇成为一名”顾问“，智囊团成员和随波逐流的政策专家之前，他就已经连任十届国会成员。这一策略甚至让金里奇无法打着”反正统主义“的幌子。
　　Explore our interactive 15 map and guide to the race for the Republican candidacy.He has since softened 16 his stance a bit, but he has also vowed 18 to stay in the race until Mr Romney clinches 19 a majority. How long that vow 17 will last is anybody’s guess. Sheldon Adelson, a casino magnate who, together with his family, has given Mr Gingrich’s Super PAC more than $15m, said that he believes Mr Gingrich is “at the end of his line”. A recent poll showed that 60% of Republicans want him to quit the race.
　　看看我们的互动地图和本次共和党候选人提名竞选的指南。金里奇的立场已经变得缓和了一些，但他仍发誓将竞选进行到底，直至罗姆尼获得绝大多数选票。这一誓言能维持多久难以预料。赌场大亨谢尔登·阿德尔森和他的家族已经给予金里奇的超级政治行动委员会超过1500万美元，这位赌场大亨说他相信金里奇“已是穷途末路”. 最近的一次民调显示60%的共和党成员希望他退出竞选。
　　Acknowledging defeat will not be easy. The next presidential race will probably attract a more daunting 20 field of candidates, leaving little room for a man who will then be 72 and whose House career ended in censure 21 and disgrace. In stump 22 speeches he has traced the origins of his presidential aspirations 23 back to 1958, when he was 15 years old. In the early 1990s he described himself as an “advocate of civilisation 24, definer of civilisation, teacher of the rules of civilisation…leader (possibly) of the civilising forces.” Or possibly not.
　　承认失败并不容易。下一次的总统竞选，将吸引更多富有实力，令人望而却步的候选人，这样一来，留给这位72岁，其议会生涯在谴责和耻辱中结束的男人的空间所剩无几。在政治演说中，他曾经追忆他想当总统的起源，当时是1958年，他只有15岁。20世纪90年代早起，他形容自己是一个“文明的倡导者，文明的定义者，文明规则的教授者.....文明力量的领袖（大概吧）”. 看来事实并非如此。