中国重启不良资产证券化市场

 China is reopening its securitised bad debt market with two deals worth Rmb534m ($81.6m) this month, eight years after regulators shuttered the market at the onset 1 of the global financial crisis.

中国正重启不良贷款证券化市场，本月的两笔证券化交易规模达5.34亿元人民币(合8160万美元) 。8年前，中国监管机构在全球金融危机爆发时关闭了这个市场。
Securitisation is among several methods adopted in an effort to whittle 2 down China’s mounting bad debt. Net debt grew to $25tn in the first quarter of the year, equivalent to a record 237 per cent of gross domestic product.
证券化是降低中国日益增加的坏账所采取的多种举措之一。今年第一季度，中国的净债务增至25万亿美元，占国内生产总值(GDP)的237%，达到创纪录水平。
Much of this sits on bank balance sheets, spooking investors 3 who fear that the slowing economy will result in more loans souring. The official average non-performing loan ratio at China’s commercial banks was 1.75 per cent at the end of March but analysts 5 reckon it could be as high as 19 per cent and eventually require a government bailout.
其中很多坏账位于银行资产负债表上，这引起投资者恐慌，他们担心，经济放缓将导致更多贷款无法偿还。3月底，中国商业银行的官方平均坏账率为1.75%，但分析师估计，实际坏账率可能高达19%，最终需要政府纾困。
Francis Cheung, CLSA’s head of China strategy, estimates Beijing will need to inject Rmb10.6tn of new capital into the banking 6 system, or 15.6 per cent of GDP, assuming a non-performing loan ratio of 20 per cent and provisions at 100 per cent of losses.
里昂证券(CLSA)中国策略主管郑名凯(Francis Cheung)估计，假设坏账率为20%，不良贷款拨备覆盖率为100%，那么中国需要向银行体系注入10.6万亿元人民币的新资金。
Kicking off the bad debt securitisation programme, which is expected to see issuance of Rmb50bn this year, are Bank of China with a Rmb301m deal next week, according to a filing at ChinaBond.com, and China Merchants Bank with a Rmb233m product.
根据中国债券信息网上的一份申请文件，首先启动不良贷款证券化项目的是中国银行(Bank of China)和招商银行(China Merchants Bank)，前者将于下周发行3.01亿元人民币的不良资产证券，招商银行将发行2.33亿元人民币的证券化产品。预计中国今年将发行500亿元人民币的不良资产证券。
Analysts fear that state players such as insurers and banks will dominate the market under the government’s guidance, in effect spreading the risk associated with bad debt within only the state financial sector 7.
分析师担心，保险公司和银行等国有参与者将在政府的指导下主宰这个市场，实际上与坏账有关的风险只会在国有金融领域内部蔓延。
“It’s very uncertain what the market will look like at this point?.?.?.?The worst-case scenario 8 would be for the government to come in and tell life insurance companies to buy up the products at a certain price,” said Matthew Smith, China financials analyst 4 at Macquarie Securities in Shanghai. “What we would like to see is rational pricing and interest from private equity 9 players.”
“目前来看，我们非常不确定市场会变成什么样子……最糟的结果是政府介入要求寿险公司以某种价格全部买下这些产品，”麦格理证券(Macquarie Securities)驻上海的中国金融分析师马修?史密斯(Matthew Smith)表示，“我们希望看到的是合理定价以及来自私募股权参与者的兴趣。”
International investors specialising in bad debt expect only muted demand as global rating agencies will not rate the early versions of the products.
预计专门从事坏账业务的国际投资者的需求有限，因为全球评级机构不会对初期产品评级。
Over the past 15 years, China’s lenders have relied on government-controlled asset management companies, or AMCs, to buy up non-performing loans, sometimes at face value. However, in recent years the level of bad loans — many from zombie companies — has exceeded the AMCs’ appetite.
过去15年，中国银行一直依赖政府控制的资产管理公司来收购不良贷款，有时是以面值收购。然而，最近几年，坏账水平（很多来自僵尸企业）超出了资产管理公司的承受能力。
“The AMCs’ ability to absorb the bad debt cannot keep up with the pace of bad debt,” said Chen Shujin, an analyst at DBS Vickers in Hong Kong. “This is a new opportunity for the banks to get their money back on loans quickly and also scrape the bad debt off their balance sheets.”
“资产管理公司吸收坏账的能力无法跟上坏账累积的速度，”星展唯高达香港有限公司(DBS Vickers)分析师陈书锦(Chen Shujin)表示，“这是银行迅速收回贷款并将坏账剥离资产负债表的新机遇。”
China Construction Bank was the last Chinese bank to issue an asset-backed security using bad debt in 2008. Regulators halted all ABS issuance in 2009 as securitised products wreaked 10 havoc 11 in western markets. China has since resumed the market for ABS products backed by auto 12 loans and credit card debt.
中国建设银行(China Construction Bank)是2008年最后一家利用坏账发行资产担保证券(ABS)的中国银行。2009年，监管机构叫停了所有的资产担保证券的发行，因为证券化产品在西方市场造成了破坏。此后，中国重启了以汽车贷款和信用卡债务为担保的资产担保证券市场。