经济学人451:印度日用消费品吸引小城市消费者

 　　Business.

　　商业。
　　Consumer goods in India.
　　印度的日用消费品。
　　Seducing 1 shoppers in Sticksville.
　　吸引小城市消费者。
　　India's small towns are the next frontier.
　　下一个前沿阵地：印度的小城市。
　　GROWTH in India is slowing. The economy expanded at an annualised rate of 5.3% between January and March, the slowest for seven years. Shoppers are scrimping. Sales of consumer durables 2 fell by 10-15% in the year to March 2012, executives say. Indian factories cranked out 30% fewer air conditioners and 15% fewer colour televisions, official data show.
　　印度的经济增长正在放缓。在一月到三月间，经济年均增长率为5.3%，是七年来的最低值。消费者越来越省吃俭用。管理层说，今年到三月间，耐用品的销量下降了10%至15%。 据官方数据显示：印度生产的空调数量下降了30%，彩电数量下降了15%。
　　Yet there is a bright spot: small-town shoppers are starting to splurge. Godrej, a family-owned conglomerate 3, saw its sales of white goods drop by over a tenth in big cities in the past fiscal 4 year. But sales in towns of less than 100,000 people rose by 19%, and in villages by over 40%. Bajaj, another conglomerate, says small-town and rural sales have risen handily in recent years, to a quarter of its home-appliances business. Sales of motorbikes and mopeds have decelerated more gently than cars, an urban luxury.
　　但也要看到光明之处：小城市的消费者开始大方起来。上一个财政年度里，家族企业Gofrej集团在大城市的家用电器销量下降了十分之一。但是人口少于十万人的小城市里的销量却上升了19%，在乡村，这一数字上涨了40%。另一家大型企业巴贾杰指出，近年来，小城镇和农村地区的销量不断上升，达到了其家用电器总份额的四分之一。汽车是城市里的奢侈品，尽管摩托车、小机动车和汽车的销量都有所下降，但不及汽车销量下降的迅速。
　　"As far as I am concerned, the slowdown is not having an effect," beams C.S. Gurubaran, as he plies 5 customers with fizzy drinks in his home-appliances shop in Chengalpattu. Two years ago Mr Gurubaran would sell a dozen washing machines a month at most in this dusty town of 64,000 people in south India. He now sells that many a week. Fridges, food processors and fans are also shifting more quickly. A bride's parents often buy a whole set of white goods as a dowry.
　　"在我看来，增长放缓还没有开始产生后果，"C.S古鲁巴朗笑着说，在帕图（地名）的家用电器店里，他用汽水来招待顾客。两年前，在这个印度南部仅有64000人口的灰蒙蒙的小城里，古鲁巴朗每月最多卖十几台洗衣机。现在，冰箱，食品加工机和风扇的销量增长更加迅速。新娘的父母通常都买一整套的家用电器作为嫁妆陪嫁。
　　Government subsidies 6, good monsoons 8, high land prices and a low reliance on credit have thus far sheltered these consumers. Chengalpattu's shoppers are mostly farmers who benefit from government-fixed floor prices for crops. Some have also made big sums by selling fields to developers. Poorer shoppers from nearby villages make money from a government scheme that guarantees 100 days of work a year.
　　这些消费者拿着政府的补助，得益于充沛的雨季，高额的地价，他们对于信贷的依赖程度很低，这些都使他们免于经济增长放缓的影响。帕图的顾客大都是农民，他们享受政府制定的粮食底价。一些人因将地卖给了开发商而赚一大笔钱。附近村子的人们要穷一些，政府一项政策规定：只要他们保证一年工作满一百天，就能挣到钱。
　　Such subsidies and schemes pushed up rural incomes by 12% last year, according to Kotak Institutional Equities 9, a broker 10. Rural incomes have grown more rapidly than urban ones since 2008.
　　据经纪公司Kotak Institutional Equitie研究机构称， 这些补助和计划推动了农村地区居民收入上涨了12%，从2008年开始，农村地区的收入比城市收入增长的要快。
　　Indian firms sense a fortune to be made by selling rustic 11 folk their first fridges. Shekhar Bajaj, the head of Bajaj Electricals, the wing of the conglomerate that sells home appliances, wants to start reaching rural buyers directly and cutting out costly 12 middlemen (such as Mr Gurubaran). Last year Mr Bajaj launched a chain, Bajaj World, mostly for rural areas. It now has 11 stores, one in a town of just 20,000 people. Mr Bajaj hopes to have 70 by next spring. "We never looked at these markets…[but] a couple of years ago we started looking at this because we need to continue to grow," he says.
　　印度的企业已经隐隐地嗅到了商机，他们将冰箱卖给乡下人从中获利。巴贾尔家用电器是巴贾尔集团最为重要的下属公司之一。其总经理卡尔?巴贾尔筹划通过直营的方式将电器卖到农村顾客的手上，撇除要抽取大量费用的中间商（例如古鲁巴朗先生）。巴贾尔先生建立了一条名为"巴贾尔世界"的销售链瞄准农村地区。 现在，它共有11家门店，其中有一家开在了仅有20000人口的小城，巴贾尔先生希望明年春天开到70家门店。他表示"此前，我们从没有注意过这些市场，（但是）几年前，为了保持继续的增长，我们开始寻找新市场"
　　Godrej is pushing even deeper into the hinterland, trying to reach villages with as few as 5,000 people. It is also designing washing machines with manual motors and tiny fridges for homes with unreliable electricity.
　　戈德尔正努力将生意扩展到那些只有5000人小村子的穷乡僻壤去。同时，它还为那些居住在电力不稳定地区的家庭设计了手动驱动的洗衣机以及微型电冰箱。
　　Foreign firms such as Samsung and Panasonic are following suit. Mahesh Krishnan, who heads Samsung's home-appliances division in India, hopes to increase the firm's presence in rural shops by a fifth in time for November's Diwali festival, a big shopping season. Foreign firms typically have skimpier distribution networks than their local rivals, but their products are more popular where they are available. A foreign brand is often a status symbol.
　　诸如三星、松下等外国企业也紧随其后。三星印度地区家用电器负责人麦海士?克里斯南希望在11月大型购物节-排灯节之前，将其在农村地区的份额提升五分之一。外国企业的分销渠道确实不如印度本土企业的多，但他们的产品在出售地区却更加受欢迎。外国品牌通常是身份的标志。
　　As India gets richer, rural folk are becoming more entwined with the national economy. Ramesh Iyer, the managing director of Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services, a rural lender, now has 2m customers, twice as many as he had in 2008. "As they move up the chain, the demand for credit will only get higher," he says. "They are getting aspirational 13."
　　印度变得越来越富，乡下人和国家经济的联系越来越紧密。农村借贷机构马辛德拉 & 马辛德拉金融服务的总经理拉梅什?伊艾现在有200万名客户，这一数量是他在2008年的客户数量的两倍，"当他们在产业链上向上移动的时候，信贷的需求就随之增加"他说道，"他们现在雄心勃勃"
　　Chengalpattu's shopkeepers are upbeat. A motorcycle vendor 14 says families are buying one bike per adult, rather than one for everyone to share, as they did a few years ago. Mr Gurubaran has started stocking 3D televisions that cost 95,000 rupees ($1,700) a pop. Viewers will doubtless see even more new products to crave 15.
　　帕图的店家都很兴奋。一位经营摩托车的店主说现在每家都是成年人人手一辆车，而不是像十几年前一样，每家只有一辆，大家合伙骑。古鲁巴朗也开始进了3D电视的货，每台要95000卢比，（1700美元）。毫无疑问，看电视的人将看到更多想买的东西。
　　However, rural shoppers cannot always be relied on to splurge. Their wealth often depends on handouts 16 rather than increased productivity. A poor monsoon 7 curbs 17 spending for a whole year—light rains in June are causing jitters 18, though the forecast for the whole year is still good. Life in small-town India may be better, for now, but it is precarious 19.
　　然而，不能总是指望乡下人会大手笔买东西。他们的收成是看老天的眼色，而不是依赖增长的生产力。一个糟糕的雨季会让一家人一年的生活都很拮据--尽管整年的预报总体上是好的，但六月里，零星的雨点就会使人们精神紧张。现在，印度的小城市的生活可能已经大有改善，但仍过的是提心吊胆，忧心忡忡的日子。