经济学人316:航空动力 领空限制

 　　Aviation capacity

　　航空动力
　　Limited skies
　　领空限制
　　Expanding airport capacity in the south-east is a bet on the future of travel
　　扩大东南地区的航空能力对旅行的未来至关重要
　　EVEN before Sir Howard Davies, an economist 1 mulling where to put extra airport capacity in Britain, rejected the idea of building a big new hub in the Thames Estuary 2, the backlash had begun. Boris Johnson, the mayor of London and an enthusiastic supporter of the Thames plan, spluttered in advance, then branded the decision “myopic”. NIMBYs opposing the expansion of Heathrow and Gatwick groaned 3, knowing that the remaining options all involve building or extending runways at one of those airports. Sir Howard's final recommendation, due in 2015, is sure to run into heavy fire. To make matters worse, he and his team must hazard a guess about the future of air travel.
　　甚至在经济学家霍华德·达维斯反对在泰晤士河口建造一座转移英国多余的航空能力的时候，反对的声音就已经出现了。伦敦市长鲍里斯·约翰逊和泰晤士计划的一位积极的支持者对此气急败坏，并认为这种决定是“目光短浅”的表现。得知当前都需要扩建两个机场或是扩建其中一个机场的跑道时，邻避主义者反对扩建希思罗机场和盖特威克机场。霍华德最终的建议将于2015年到期，的确引起了人们极大的愤怒。为了让人们更加反对，他和他的团队必须实行一个关于乘机航行的危险的猜想。
　　航空动力.jpg
　　Heathrow and Gatwick are both full, or close to it, and want to expand. But the two airports presently serve quite different parts of the market. Some 37% of passengers at Heathrow transfer between flights. Nearly a third of its customers are on business. By contrast, only 13% of Gatwick's customers are business travellers. Most are going on holiday. Just 7% transfer there—a proportion that has fallen by half over the past decade.
　　希思罗机场和盖特威克机场的承载量已经接近饱和，都需要扩建。但是这两个机场目前的市场服务内容并不同。希思罗机场37%的乘客都是乘飞机转车。几乎三分之一的客户都是工作出行。相反，盖特威克机场的客户只有13%是工作出差。大多数都是游客。只有7%的人是转机的—— 在过去的10年里，这个比例下降了一半。
　　Heathrow's shiny new Terminal 2, which opened in June, is full of expensive shops and restaurants run by Michelin-starred cooks to entice 4 rich passengers. At Gatwick, recent improvements reflect its popularity with holidaygoers: a wider lane at a spruced-up security gate has been set aside for families, while an area in the southern terminal is now reserved for elderly passengers, with comfy seats and a small duty-free shop.
　　希思罗新建的富丽堂皇的2号航站楼，于6月投入使用，里面有许多昂贵的商店和米其林名厨运营的餐馆以满足富有乘客的需求。盖特威克机场做了一些措施，以满足众多度假游客的需求：一排安检口前稍宽的区域划为家人区，南边航站楼属于老年乘客区，配备了舒适的沙发和一个不大的免税店。
　　The airports' managers also hold entirely 5 different views about the way the airline industry will develop, and its place in the broader economy. Much of the argument for expanding Heathrow rests on the idea that hub airports are, and will remain, vital. Without further expansion, boosters argue, fewer flights to far-flung places such as Wuhan and Xiamen will be available to businessmen. If the capacity crunch 6 persists, domestic flights are more likely to be delayed or cancelled. European airports will pick up those passengers instead. “That's our GDP leaking out,” says Jon Proudlove, the general manager of air-traffic control at Heathrow.
　　机场经理对飞机行业的发展方式及其在更广阔的经济领域的地位也是各执己见。扩建希思罗机场的主要观点是枢纽机场现在很重要，将来也很重要。支持者们反驳，如果不扩建的话，几乎没有多少飞机能前往武汉、厦门等地，这对商业人士来说是非常不方便的。如果要开启前往这些地方的航班，国内航班很可能会延误或取消。欧洲的机场将接受这批游客。希思罗机场的空管经理Jon Proudlove 说：“我们的GDP就这样溜走了”
　　Not surprisingly, Gatwick takes a different view. Over the past ten years the growth of low-cost airlines has been explosive, points out Sir Roy McNulty, chairman of the Gatwick group. People are travelling in different ways, with more “self-connecting” to keep costs down. Although connections with emerging markets are important, Europe and North America will remain Britain's largest trading partners, he argues. London will be a destination in its own right, but a British hub may not be able to compete with the mega-hubs emerging in the Middle East.
　　毫不意外，盖特威克却持有不同的观点。盖特威克集团的主席Roy McNulty指出，在过去的十年里，低价航线呈井喷式发展。人们旅游的方式各不相同，通过越来越多的“个人关系”降低费用。他表示，尽管新兴市场之间的关系非常重要，欧洲和北美仍是英国最大的合作伙伴。伦敦将凭借自身能力成为航班目的地，但是英国的枢纽机场无法与中东崛起的特大枢纽机场相抗衡。
　　Boosters for a second runway at Gatwick point to the rising number of orders for aircraft which could offer “hub-bypass” services, flying people directly from one city to another. British Airways 7 (BA), the largest British carrier, has ordered 18 Airbus A350s and 36 Boeing 787s, which efficiently 8 ferry a smaller number of people over longer distances, making some secondary markets more viable 9. But betting on orders is tough: BA also has six huge A380s on order, each of which flies around 500 passengers between congested hubs, to add to six already in stock.
　　支持盖特威克机场修建第二道飞机跑道的人们表明，飞机数量过多，人们可以通过“机场通道”将人们从一个城市直接运到另一个城市。英国最大的客运航空，英国航空公司（BA），订购了18架A350s空中客车，36架787s波音，能有效地运送少量的远距离乘客，使得二级市场的存活能力更强。但是用订单打赌很难决定输赢：英国汗孔也有6架大型A380s，每架可承载500乘客
　　Sir Howard and his team will have to base their final recommendation on a good deal of guesswork about future trends that perplex people in the airline industry. That will make it easier for politicians to argue over their decision—particularly the ones who answer to the residents of west London, rattled 10 by jets arriving at and leaving Heathrow. And as Sir Howard considers his options, both Heathrow and Gatwick grow ever busier.
　　霍华德及其团队将不得不在大量猜测未来的飞机行业对人们影响的基础上得出最终的建议。这能帮助决策者更容易地讨论自己的决定——尤其是那些需要向西伦敦市民作出答复的政客，市民们对希思罗机场起飞、降落的飞机抱怨极大。在霍华德考虑如何抉择的时候，希思罗机场和盖特威克机场越来越忙了。