经济学人232:油价下跌 赚了还是赔了？

 　　Cheaper oil

　　油价下跌
　　Winners and losers
　　赚了还是赔了？
　　America and its friends benefit from falling oil prices; its most strident critics don't
　　美国及其盟友将从油价下跌中获益；最为毒舌的批评者们却不能如此
　　IN EARLY October the IMF looked at what might happen to the world economy if conflict in Iraq caused an oil-price shock. Fighters from Islamic State (IS) were pushing into the country's north and the fund worried about a sharp price rise, of 20% in a year. Global GDP would fall by 0.5-1.5%, it concluded. Equity 1 prices in rich countries would decline by 3-7%, and inflation would be at least half a point higher.
　　十月初，国际货币基金组织（IMF）预估了一旦伊拉克冲突导致油价震荡会带来怎样的后果。 伊斯兰国（IS）的武装分子在向该国北部进军时，IMF担心今年油价可能会猛增约20%。它还估计今年全球GDP增速可能会下滑0.5%至1.5%。富裕国家的股价跌幅可能会达到3%至7%，而通胀率可能至少会上浮0.5个百分点。
　　IS is still advancing.Russia, the world's third-biggest producer, is embroiled 2 inUkraine.Iraq,Syria,Nigeria and Libya, oil producers all, are in turmoil 3. But the price of Brent crude fell over 25% from 115 abarrel in mid-June to under 85 inmid-October, before recovering a little. Such a shift has global consequences. Who are the winners and losers?
　　IS仍在继续进军。世界上第三大出口国俄罗斯也身陷乌克兰国内的冲突中。伊拉克、叙利亚、尼日利亚和利比亚这些石油生产国都处在动荡中。但是北海布伦特原油的价格却从七月中旬的每桶115美元跌至十月中旬的不足85美元，跌幅超过25%，随后又出现小幅回升。这样的价格波动给全球都带来了影响。那么谁是赢家谁是输家呢？
　　油价下跌.jpg
　　The first winner is the world economy itself. A 10% change in the oil price is associated with around a 0.2% change in global GDP, says Tom Helbling of the IMF. A price fall normally boosts GDP by shifting resources from producers to consumers, who are more likely to spend their gains than wealthy sheikhdoms. If increased supply is the driving force, the effect is likely to be bigger—as in America, where shale 4 gas drove prices down relative to Europe and, says the IMF, boosted manufactured exports by 6% compared with the rest of the world. But if it reflects weak demand, consumers may save the windfall.
　　第一个赢家当属全球经济本身。IMF的汤姆·赫尔布林表示，油价波动10%，就会带来全球GDP约0.2%的浮动。正常情况下，油价下跌会助推GDP的增长，因为会将石油从生产国那里转移给消费国，而后者比那些富裕的酋长国支出收益的可能性更大。如果石油供应增加成为驱动力，那么它的影响会更大—因为美国的页岩气推动了石油价格下跌，而IMF表示，与之有关的欧洲推进了制造品出口，涨幅较世界其他地区而言，达到了6%。但是，如果油价下跌反映出需求趋弱，那么消费国可能会大获横财。
　　Today's falling prices are caused by shifts in both supply and demand. The world's slowing economy, and stalled recoveries in Europe and Japan, are reining 5 back the demand for oil. But there has been a big supply shock, too. Thanks largely to America, oil production since early 2013 has been running at 1m-2mbarrels per day (b/d) higher than the year before. Other influences are acting 6 as a brake on the world economy. But a price cut of 25% for oil, if maintained, should mean that global GDP will be roughly 0.5% higher than it would be otherwise.
　　石油供需的变化共同导致了今天的油价下跌。世界经济增速缓慢，欧洲和日本的经济恢复近乎停滞，这些都抑制了对石油的需求。但是，石油供给也遭受了冲击。美国自2013年初起其石油的日产量就比去年增加了一两百万桶，这可是大功臣。还有其他的一些影响成为世界经济增长的后腿。但是如果能维持油价25%的跌幅，这就意味着全球GDP增速会提高约0.5%。
　　Some countries stand to gain a lot more than that average, and others, to lose out. The world produces just over 90mb/d of oil. At 115 abarrel, that is worth roughly 3.8 trillion a year; at 85, just 2.8 trillion. Any country or group that consumes more than it produces gains from the 1 trillion transfer—importers, most of all.
　　一些国家的收益肯定会比其他国家多，但也有一些国家会损失不少。全球每天的石油产量仅为900万桶，按每桶115美元算，其每年的产量大约值3.8万亿美元。如果每桶为85美元，其价值仅为2.8万亿美元。如果任何一个国家或集团的石油产量低于消费量，那么它便能从这一万亿美元获益——大多数是石油进口国。
　　China is the world's second-largest net importer of oil. Based on 2013 figures, every 1 drop in the oil price saves it an annual 2.1 billion. The recent fall, if sustained, lowers its import bill by 60 billion, or 3%. Most of its exports are manufactured goods whose prices have not fallen. Unless weak demand changes that, its foreign currency will go further, and living standards should rise.
　　中国是世界上第二大石油进口国。根据2013年的数据来看，油价每下跌1美元，每年便能为其节约21亿美元。如果最近的油价下跌情况能够保持住，将会为其节约600亿美元的石油进口费用（约3%）。中国的出口大多为工业制成品，其价格已经在走低。如果疲弱的需求会改变这种局面，该国的外汇便会增加，人民生活水平也会相应提高。