经济学人213:资不抵债 愈发艰难

 　　Insolvency 1

　　资不抵债
　　Going under
　　愈发艰难
　　A lot of people are still going bankrupt
　　仍有很多人濒临破产
　　GOVERNMENT ministers took a break from wooing the Scots on September 17th to crow over Britain’s strengthening job market. Unemployment now stands at just 6.2%—down from a peak of 8.4% in late 2011, and not much higher than the 5% rates that were normal before the financial crisis. Another economic indicator 2, however, doesn’t look so good.
　　英国政府大臣们刚从9.17日恳求苏格兰留在英国的窘境中走出来，就开始吹嘘英国就业市场日益强健。当前，失业率仅6.2%—低于2011年后半年事业高峰期的8.4%，而且与金融危机前的正常失业率5%相比，也并不高。但另一个经济指标看起来却没这么好。
　　破产.jpg
　　In 2000 the insolvency rate in Britain was just 7.4 per 100,000 adults. That shot up to 32.4 in 2010 before falling for the past four years. But it ticked up again in the second quarter of 2014, to 22.8 per 100,000. “The dip has really bottomed out,” says R3, the insolvency trade body.
　　2000年，英国10万成年人中仅有7.4人破产。2010年，每10万英国人中就有32.4人破产。近四年来，每10万人中，破产人数又有回落。然而，2014年第二季度该数据又自动上升至每10万人中22.8人破产。“这次探底已经降至最低”，破产贸易机构R3称。
　　One reason for the rise in insolvencies after 2000 was that it became easier to file for an Individual Voluntary Arrangement, which allows debtors 3 to pay money back over a period of time. Then, in 2009, the government created the Debt Relief Order—sometimes called “bankruptcy 4 lite”—for people with a maximum debt of 15,000. Other possible explanations for the rise over the years include a spendthrift attitude among the growing number of people unable to get on the housing ladder and the growth of student loans, which have normalised the idea of debt, suggests Andrew Tate of R3.
　　2000年之后破产率上升，其原因之一在于，申请债务重组变得更容易了。债务重组允许债务人在一段时间内将债务归还。之后，2009年，英国政府为债务上限为1.5万英镑的人建立了债务减轻命令（DRO）—有时也称“快捷破产”。近几年破产率上升，可能还有另一些原因，其中包括：买不起首套房的人越来越多，他们花钱挥霍无度；还有学生债务的增长， R3的安德鲁·塔特称学生债务使债务的意义变得正常化。
　　Young women are more likely to go bust 5 than are young men. Louise Brittain of Wilkins Kennedy, an accountancy firm, says many more women are taking risks as entrepreneurs these days, so more are ending up in trouble. But only a quarter of all personal bankruptcies 6 in the first quarter of this year were of self-employed people. The biggest problem for both men and women is credit-card bingeing, she says.
　　年轻女性比年轻男士破产的可能性更大。威尔金斯·肯尼迪会计公司的路易斯·布里顿称，如今越来越多的女性冒着风险想成为企业家，因此陷入破产的女性就更多。但是，今年第一季度的个人破产中，自由职业者占了四分之一。路易斯·布里顿称，无论对于男性还是女性，最大的问题就是用信用卡挥霍无度。
　　Mr Tate worries most about the growth of debt management plans. These often involve cold-calling people in debt and offering to negotiate with creditors 7 for a fee. A recent R3 survey found that 4% of British adults—about 2m people—are in some kind of DMP. Since only about 250,000 are formally insolvent 8, the problem might be bigger than it appears. Some debtors cannot afford the 705 fee to apply for bankruptcy. Others have debts too high to apply for a DRO. R3 suggests raising the debt maximum for DROs to 30,000 and letting the fee be paid in instalments.
　　塔特先生最担心的是债务管理计划的增长。通常，这牵扯到因负债而倍受打击的人们与债权人协商收取费用。R3最近的一次调查发现4%的英国成年人—约200万人—正处于某种债务管理计划中。由于只有2.5万人正式破产，这个问题可能会比表面上看起来更加严重。一些找无人无力承担705英镑的破产申请费。其他人债台高筑，无力申请债务减轻命令。R3建议将债务上限提高到3万英镑，并且对破产申请费实行分期付款。
　　Such moves may help, but a bigger problem looms 9. If interest rates were to rise to the sort of levels normal before the financial crisis, many homeowners could not absorb them, says Ms Brittain.
　　这些方法可能有帮助，但是有一个更大的隐患。如果利息税飙升至金融危机前的正常水平，很多私房屋主就不能接受了，布里顿称。