经济学人224:莱克星顿 埃博拉恐慌者

 　　Lexington

　　莱克星顿
　　The Ebola alarmists
　　埃博拉恐慌者
　　Stoking panic will not help America fight Ebola
　　引发恐慌对美国战胜埃博拉无益
　　IN THE crowded field of Ebola alarmists, Rand Paul ofKentuckystands out. Before he was a Republican senator with presidential ambitions, he was an eye doctor. Apparently 1 the Hippocratic oath does not cover panic-mongering: Dr Paul has popped up on talk-radio shows, alleging 2 that when Barack Obama or his scientists say that Ebola is rather hard to catch, they are fibbing. Or, as he puts it, they are downplaying the risk that Ebola might spread acrossAmericafor reasons of “political correctness”. Ebola is “incredibly transmissible”, Dr Paul has asserted, talking of doctors falling sick even after they suited up and took “every precaution”.
　　肯塔基的兰德·保罗（Rand Paul）从一群埃博拉恐慌者中挺身而出。他之前是一名眼科医生，如今则是一名有着精选总统雄心的共和党议员。显然，希波克拉底誓言没能抵挡住恐慌的传播。保罗医生出现在了电台谈话节目中，声称奥巴马及其科学家所说的 “埃博拉病毒很难传染”的说法是在撒谎。或者正如他所说，他们可能为了“政治正确性”而淡化埃博拉可能传遍全美的风险。保罗医生在谈到医生即使穿戴好防护服并做了“一切预防措施”后仍然患病时说道，埃博拉有着“难以置信的传染性”。
　　埃博拉恐慌者.jpg
　　No one is denying that Ebola is a huge problem inAfrica, nor that it would be a disaster were it to reach and spread through the slums of say, Mumbai. But rich nations have the resources to contain it if it reaches their shores.Americahas so far seen one case: a Liberian man who died on October 8th. Although a Texan hospital at first missed his symptoms, he was subsequently isolated 4 and is not yet known to have infected anyone else.
　　没人能够否认埃博拉在非洲是个巨大的难题，也没人否认，如果埃博拉传到贫民区，比如孟买，则必然是场灾难。但是发达国家拥有资源，如果资源能送达非洲海岸，就能够控制事态。美国迄今为止有一例埃博拉病例，是一名来自利比里亚的男性，死于10月8日。尽管德克萨斯医院起初误诊，但他随后被隔离，至今尚不清楚他已经传染给了多少人。
　　Also on October 8th, the federal government announced that passengers from West Africawould be screened for Ebola at five American airports. Many politicians are demanding more drastic measures. Dr Paul is one of several to ask why flights from Ebola-stricken African countries to Americacontinue at all. Governor Bobby Jindal of Louisianasays planes must be grounded “to protect our people”. Senator Ted 3 Cruz of Texascontrasts Mr Obama's willingness to let airlines serve West Africa with July's “highly suspicious” decision by the Federal Aviation Authority (FAA) to halt American flights into Israelafter a rocket fell near that country's main airport, just as the government was—Mr Cruz growls—pressing Israelto grant concessions 5 to Hamas. Many candidates have urged Ebola travel bans. Few mention that most routes from Africa to Americarequire transfers in Europe, making it hard to stop them without closing the Atlantic(see article).
　　同样在10月8日，联邦政府宣布，所有从西非来的乘客将在美国五大机场进行埃博拉病毒的筛查。多名政客要求出台更加严厉的防范措施。有几名人士质疑，为什么从非洲疫区国家来的航班仍在通航，而保罗就是其中之一。路易斯安那州州长博比金达尔（Bobby Jindal）说，飞机必须停飞，以“保护我们民众的安全”。德克萨斯州参议员泰德·科鲁兹（Ted Cruz）将奥巴马让航空公司服务西非的意愿，与美国联邦航空局在以色列一重要机场附近遭火箭袭击后于7月作出“高度警戒”，决定停飞一切以色列航班这件事情进行比较，并怒斥道，这就像是美国政府在向以色列施压，让以色列同意向哈马斯作出让步。诸多总统候选人都敦促政府出台埃博拉疫区的出行禁令。少有人提及多数从非洲到美国的航班需要在欧洲中转，这使得想要在不封锁大西洋航线的情况下而阻止来自非洲的民众是很难的事。
　　Dr Paul is, to date, alone in suggesting that—in deploying 6 troops toAfricato build field hospitals—Mr Obama may be sending them to a horror-movie death. We all know how diarrhoea spreads on cruise ships, he has said: “Can you imagine if a whole shipful of our soldiers catch Ebola?”
　　保罗是迄今为止唯一提出“被奥巴马部署到非洲建立临时医院的军队，可能是被送去面临恐怖电影中的死亡桥段”的人。保罗说，我们都知道腹泻是如何在游轮上进行传播，“你能想象一船人那么多的士兵被染上埃博拉的情况吗？”
　　Government doctors are working to calm the public, notably 7 Tom Frieden, head of the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention, and Anthony Fauci, boss of the infectious diseases arm of the National Institutes of Health. The pair have spent hours on TV, enduring hosts shouting about “hot zones”, or enquiring 8 whether terrorists might use Ebola. (It would be an “inefficient” bio-weapon, Dr Fauci mildly replied, adding that the virus's evolution in nature is far scarier.) Repeatedly the pair have explained why quarantiningWest Africawould be unwise. It would weaken governments, hobble aid, trap Americans and spur travellers to move in roundabout ways that make them harder to track.
　　政府部门的医生正在安抚群众，特别是疾控中心的领导汤姆·弗里登（Tom Frieden），和美国国立卫生研究院下属传染病机构的领导安东尼·福西（Anthony Fauci）。他们在电视上花了好几个小时的时间忍受主持人对“敏感地区”以及埃博拉是否会被恐怖分子利用等的询问。（福西医生淡淡的回答说，埃博拉是“低效”的生物武器，并补充道，病毒在自然界中的进化远比这个可怕。）他俩反复的解释为什么隔离西非是不明智的。因为这会削弱政府的控制、阻碍援助的进行、诱骗美国民众并刺激出行者用迂回的方式出行从而使得追踪更加的困难。
　　To be fair, Democrats 9 have also played virus-politics. The first Ebola attack ad ran in August, as Senator Mark Pryor ofArkansasaccused his Republican opponent, Tom Cotton, of voting against a pandemic-prevention bill (neglecting to mention that Mr Cotton later voted for a different version of the same bill). Democrats have linked the Ebola crisis to the sequester 10, across-the-board federal spending cuts which reduced public-health funds and overseas aid. True, Congress has spent years messing up science funding, but that is not why Ebola exploded inAfrica. Indeed,Americahas poured billions of dollars into pandemic preparedness since the 2005 Asian outbreak of H5N1 avian flu. The country is “dramatically better-prepared than it was”, says Michael Leavitt, George W. Bush's health secretary during the bird flu scare.
　　公平地说，民主党人也玩起了“病毒政治”。第一则有关埃博拉的攻击性广告出现于8月，阿肯色州参议员马克·普莱尔（Mark Pryor） 指责其共和党的对手汤姆·科顿（Tom Cotton） 投票反对流行病预防法案（但并没有提及科顿之后投票赞成该法案的另一个版本）。民主党人把埃博拉危机与隔离、全面削减联邦开支联系在一起，而联邦开支的削减将导致公共医疗基金和海外援助的相应缩减。说真的，国会花了数年时间把科研经费搞得一团糟，但这并不是埃博拉在非洲爆发的原因。事实上，自从2005年亚洲爆发H5N1型禽流感以来，美国已经在流行病预防上倾注了数十亿美元。小布什时期的卫生部部长迈克尔·莱维特（Michael Leavitt）在禽流感恐慌中时曾说道，美国“比以往任何时候都准备得更加充分”。
　　A new poll by the Pew Research Centre shows how tribalism skews trust. With Mr Obama in the White House, Republicans are much more sceptical than Democrats about the government's ability to prevent a big Ebola outbreak, Pew found. In contrast, in 2005 Republicans were far more confident than Democrats that Mr Bush could control bird flu.
　　皮尤研究中心一项新的民意调查显示了部落意识是如何扭曲信任的。皮尤发现，由于奥巴马在白宫任职，所以共和党人比民主党人更加怀疑政府预防埃博拉大爆发的能力。相比之下，在2005年，共和党人在小布什能否够控制禽流感这一问题上则远比民主党人要自信。
　　Yet distrust has also mutated like a virus in recent years.America's debate on Ebola is, or should be, an argument about the best use of the country's formidable resources. Namely, is it safer to pursue hermetic isolation 11 from the world; or (counter-intuitively) is it less risky 12 forAmericato fight Ebola with a strategy of controlled openness, leading a global fight to beat the virus at its source, while trusting experts to prevent an American outbreak with painstaking 13 health-checks at airports and hospitals?
　　然而，近年来，不信任也像病毒一样发生了突变。美国对埃博拉的争论是，或者说应该是一场关于如何最好的利用国家强大资源的争论。也就是说，是追求与世界的完全隔离更加安全？还是说（与我们的直觉相反）运用控制下的开放战略，利用它的资源来领导全球的埃博拉战争，并信任专家能够通过在机场和医院辛苦的健康检查来阻止埃博拉在美国爆发的这种方式，对美国而言风险更小？
　　That sort of argument will always expose philosophical 14 differences. Reasonable people will often disagree: some instinctively 15 put their faith in security, others in openness. It is good to ask hard questions about official competence—agents of state authority often make mistakes. And there is nothing new about a crisis stoking partisan 16 flames: in 2005 the far left accused Mr Bush of failing to respond properly to Hurricane Katrina because he supposedly did not care about black residents ofNew Orleans.
　　这种争论总会暴露出不同观点间的哲学差异。明智的人常常不会同意一些人把他们自己的信仰放入安全地带，却让其他人的信仰处于危险之中。对政府能力提出刁钻问题是件好事。因为政府作为国家权威代理者经常犯错。加剧党派对峙火焰的危机并不是什么新鲜事，2005年，极左派指责布什没能对卡特里娜飓风做出恰当的回应是或是因为他不关心新奥尔良的黑人居民。
　　Conspiracy 17 theories go viral
　　阴谋论不胫而走
　　But the arrival of a nasty virus fromAfricahas revealed something else. Ambitious politicians are no longer merely attacking the other party, or the president. The starting point for Ebola alarmists is an assumption that behind policy disagreements, conspiracies 18 lurk 19, with technocrats 20 in on the plot. Dr Paul appears to believe that officials are knowingly lying when they downplay the risk of a pandemic. Mr Cruz breezily suggests that the FAA helped to bullyIsrael.Louisiana's governor complains that the government, in arguing that flight bans do more harm than good, wants Americans to heed 21 what he sniffily calls “the experts”.
　　但这种源自非洲让人厌烦的病毒的到来也反映出一些其他的东西。有野心的政客不再只是攻击另一党派或是总统。埃博拉恐慌者的出发点是对背后政治差异、技术官僚密谋阴谋的假设。保罗似乎认为，官员在淡化疫情风险时故意撒谎。科鲁兹则轻描淡写的建议美国联邦航空局（FAA）去恐吓以色列。路易斯安那州州长抱怨认为飞行禁令弊大于利的政府，想让美国民众去听从那些被他呲之以鼻称为“砖家”的人的说法。
　　Some leaders are more responsible. The Republican governor ofTexas, Rick Perry, has tried to keep people calm. Few countries are better equipped thanAmericato keep the public safe, he has assured Texans. He is right. It should not need saying.
　　一些领导则更有责任感。德克萨斯州的共和党州长里科·佩里（Rick Perry）试图安抚民众。他向德克萨斯的民众保证，没有哪个国家拥有像美国这么好的、能够保障公共安全的设备。他是对的。这根本不必说出来。人尽皆知。