经济学人206:苏格兰独立

 　　Scottish independence

　　苏格兰独立
　　UK RIP?
　　大英联合帝国要完了？
　　Ditching the union would be a mistake for Scotland and a tragedy for the country it leaves behind
　　苏格兰独立对苏格兰来说会是一个错误。对被其抛弃的英国来说，则更是一场悲剧
　　SCHOOLCHILDREN once imagined their place in the world, with its complex networks and allegiances, by writing elaborate postal 1 addresses. British youngsters began with their street and town. They understood that the UK, and all its collective trials and achievements—the industrial revolution, the Empire, victory over the Nazis 2, the welfare state—were as much a part of their patrimony 3 as the Scottish Highlands or English cricket. They knew, instinctively 4, that these concentric rings of identity were complementary, not opposed.
　　城市，这些城市组成了英格兰、威尔士、苏格兰和北爱尔兰，这几个地区组成了大英帝国，然后才是欧洲大陆，世界和宇宙。他们了解自己的国家，了解它所有的历程与成就——工业革命，帝国建立，战胜纳粹，福利国家，而苏格兰高地和英格兰板球一样，也是这个国家历史文化遗产的一部分。他们本能地认为，这几个相互关联的地区是共生的，而非对立。
　　At least, they used to. After the referendum on Scottish independence on September 18th, one of those layers—the UK—may cease to exist, at least in the form recognisable since the Act of Union three centuries ago. As the vote nears, Scotland's nationalists have caught up with the unionist No camp in the opinion polls, and even edged ahead (see article). More and more Scots are deciding that the UK, which their soldiers, statesmen, philosophers and businessmen have done so much to build and ornament 5, does not cradle their Scottishness but smothers 6 it. This great multinational 7 state could be undone 8 in a single day, by a poll in which just 7% of its citizens will participate. That outcome, once unthinkable, would be bad for Scotland and tragic 9 for what remained of the UK.
　　这一切都可能化为曾经。9月18日苏格兰公投后，三个世纪前，通过联合法案建立的大英帝国可能就不复存在了。公投日渐逼近，而民调显示，苏格兰独派渐渐追上了统派，甚至已经赶超。越来越多的苏格兰人认为，他们的士兵、政治家、学者和企业家为其奉献和出力的英国不仅没有保护好他们的苏格兰传统，反而在损害它。大英帝国这个多民族的国家也许会在一天内分崩瓦解，民调显示，7%的公民将参加公投。苏格兰独立—这件曾以为永远不会发生的事—不仅对苏格兰不利，对英国更是一场悲剧。
　　The damage a split would do
　　苏格兰独立的危害
　　The rump of Britain would be diminished in every international forum 10: why should anyone heed 11 a country whose own people shun 12 it? Since Britain broadly stands for free trade and the maintenance of international order, this would be bad for the world. Its status as a nuclear power would be doubtful: the country's nuclear submarines are based in a Scottish loch and could not be moved quickly. Britain would also be more likely to leave the European Union, since Scots are better disposed to Europe than are the English (and are less likely to vote for the Conservatives, who are promising 13 a Euro-referendum if they win next year's general election). The prospect 14 of a British exit from the EU would scare investors 15 much more than a possible Scottish exit from Britain .
　　苏格兰一旦分离出去，英国在国家上的地位将一落千丈：一个连自己国民都避之不及的国家还有何声誉可言？而英国一直是自由世界和国际秩序维护的支持者，这样的局面对整个世界来说，也非常不利。英国作为一个拥有核能源的国家地位也将备受质疑：英国的核潜艇基地就设在苏格兰，不可能在短期内完成转移。英国也可能离开欧盟，因为苏格兰比英国更愿意加入欧盟，他们也不会投票给准备在明年赢得大选后举办对欧元公投的保守党。英国将脱离欧盟的可能比苏格兰分离出英国的前景更会吓走投资者。
　　The people of Scotland alone will decide the future of Britain, and they are not obliged to worry about what becomes of the state they would leave. But—perhaps not surprisingly, given the endurance and success of the union, imperilled though it is—Scots' own interests, and the rest of Britain's, coincide.
　　英国的前途现在完全掌握在苏格兰人民手上了！而他们才不会关心这个已经被他们抛弃的国家未来会如何呢。尽管英联邦如今的状况也不佳，但它已团结了百年，也取得了诸多成就，所以不难看出，苏格兰和英国的利益其实是唇齿相依的。
　　At the heart of the nationalist campaign is the claim that Scotland would be a more prosperous and more equal country if it went solo. It is rich in oil and inherently decent, say the nationalists, but impoverished 16 by a government in Westminster that has also imposed callous 17 policies. They blame successive British governments for almost every ill that has befallen Scotland, from the decline of manufacturing industry to ill-health to the high price of sending parcels in the Highlands. Alex Salmond, Scotland's nationalist leader, is broad in his recrimination: Labour and the Tories are of a piece, he suggests, in their disregard for Scotland.
　　苏格兰民族主义阵营的核心理念是，苏格兰在独立后将是一个更为富强和平等的主权国家。他们说，苏格兰石油资源丰富，生来就是一个富饶的国家，但却被英国政府制定的苛刻政策所不断压榨。他们列举了历届英国政府的条条罪状：减少石油加工厂，人民健康危机，以及将石油高价高价卖给苏格兰等。苏格兰民族党领袖艾利克斯·萨尔蒙德（Alex Salmond）更是对英政府百般责难：管你工党还是托利党，还不都是沆瀣一气，全然不顾苏格兰的利益。
　　But Scotland's relative economic decline is the result not of southern neglect but of the shift of manufacturing and shipping 18 to Asia. If Westminster has not reversed all the deleterious effects of globalisation and technology, that is because to do so is impossible. The nationalists know this, which is why, sotto voce, they would continue many of Westminster's policies. Instead they make much of minor 19 adjustments, such as abolishing the “bedroom tax”, a recent measure designed to nudge people out of too-large social housing. To break up a country over such small, recent annoyances 20 would be nuts.
　　但苏格兰经济衰退，其罪魁并非英国政府，而是制造业和运输业向亚洲转移的结果。英国政府也无法阻挡全球化和科技发展所带来的负面效应。偷偷滴说一句，苏格兰民族党也明白这一点，所以他们仍会保留英国政府制定的诸多政策。目前他们只是做出了一些小改变，如废除近期英国颁布的针对空置房屋的卧室税。但为了近期发生的这么点小不满就要分裂一个国家也太不明智了。
　　The nationalists' economics are also flawed. Scotland would not, in fact, be richer alone. The taxes that would flow to it from the North Sea would roughly compensate 21 for the extra cost of its lavish 22 state, which would no longer be funded by Westminster (last year spending was some 1,300 per person higher in Scotland than elsewhere in Britain). But oil revenues are erratic 23. They would have earned Scotland 11.5 billion in 2008-09 but only 5.5 billion in 2012-13. If an independent state were to smooth these fluctuations 24 by setting up an oil fund, it would have less cash to spend now. In any case, the oil is gradually running out. In order to maintain state spending after it is gone, taxes would have to rise. And a crunch 25 might come much sooner. Foreign investors and big businesses that mostly serve English customers could well move south.
　　民族党经济学家们的观点也同样存在缺陷。苏格兰单打独斗是不可能富强起来的。虽然依靠北海所征得的税收基本可以满足一个国家的其他需求，但它将再得不到英国政府的资金支持（去年英国政府向苏格兰提供的资金高达人均1300英镑，这个数字是整个英国地区最高的）。可是石油的盈利是不稳定的。2008年到2009年间，苏格兰的石油盈利为一千一百五十亿英镑，但在2012年到2013年，石油的盈利就降到了五百五十亿英镑。一个独立国家如果想要通过建立石油资金以稳定这样的收入波动，那它现有的资金就所剩无几了。而且不管怎么样，石油终将会枯竭，一旦如此，国家就必须通过提高税收以继续维持。财政困难的局面可能比预期的会还要早。面对英国消费者的国外投资者和企业也会转移到南部。
　　Westminster has ruled out a currency union—correctly, given that the nationalists propose a deficit-widening fiscal 26 splurge and that the assets of Scottish banks are an alarming 12 times the country's GDP. It might relent, but only if Scotland agrees to such strict oversight 27 that independence ends up meaning little. The nationalists say that kinks over currency and the like could be worked out amicably—that it would not be in Britain's interests to antagonise its new northern neighbour, particularly since (they hint darkly) Scotland could refuse to take on its share of the national debt. They are far too sanguine 28. If Scotland goes, the rest of Britain will be furious, both at the Scots and at their own leaders, who will be impelled 29 to drive a hard bargain.
　　英国政府已经表示，不会与苏格兰组成货币联盟。这是肯定的，毕竟民族党准备扩大财政赤字，而苏格兰银行的资产是其国内生产总值（GDP）的十二倍。当然这事还有的商量，但前提是苏格兰必须停止闹独立。民族党说，这些资金问题会得到妥善处理，再说了，英国要与它在北部的新邻国闹别扭对它自己也是有弊无益，尤其他们还再三无耻地暗示，苏格兰可能不会承担那部分原本是他们的负债的。但他们太过乐观了。苏格兰一旦独立，无论是对苏格兰人民，还是对独立党领袖，英国都将大光其火，苏格兰必将与英国进行艰难的经济谈判。
　　Mr Salmond is on stronger ground when he argues that if Scotland does not leave Britain it might be dragged out of the EU against its will. This is indeed a danger, but in going independent Scotland would swap 30 the possibility of an EU exit for a certain future as a small, vulnerable country. Its best hope of remaining influential 31 is to stay put, and fight the Eurosceptics.
　　萨尔蒙德最有利的观点就是苏格兰不脱离英国，它就很可能被迫离开欧盟。这的确是一害。但如果苏格兰独立，作为一个实力不强的小国，它还是可能被逐出欧盟。苏格兰最好的选择还是留在英国，并与欧盟反对者抗争。
　　A lot to lose
　　沉重的代价
　　In the end the referendum will turn not on calculations of taxes and oil revenue, but on identity and power. The idea that Scots can shape their own destiny, both at the referendum and afterwards, is exhilarating. Yet Scotland already controls many of its own affairs. Moreover, as Westminster politicians of all stripes have hastily made clear, if Scotland votes No, the devolved administration will soon get so much clout 32 that the practical difference between staying in the union and leaving it will narrow. That would also lead to the distribution of power away from Westminster and to other bits of Britain, which should have happened long ago.
　　其实公投的最终目的不在对税款和利益的斤斤计较，而是寻找身份的认同和自我的权力。无论是对公投本身，还是公投之后，苏格兰人民可以决定自己的命运的这一想法，才是最令人激动的。但现在，苏格兰人民已经可以掌握了很多自主权了。萨尔蒙德率领的民族党，及其运营下的政府口中喊着独立，但实际并没有利用自己的权力做出什么实事。此外，英国众多政治家都已经表示，如果苏格兰不分离，各地区政府将获得更多的权力，因此留在联盟内与独立出去其实并无实质差别。这就意味着权力将从中央政府下放到地区政府，这本该是很多年前就应该完成的。
　　So by staying in, Scots will not just save the union but enhance it, as they have for 300 years. For the UK, with all its triumphs and eccentricities 33, belongs to Scots as much as it does to the English—even if increasing numbers of them seem ready to disown that glorious, hard-earned heritage, and to simplify their identities by stripping out one of those concentric rings. That goes against both the spirit of this fluid century—in which most people have multiple identities, whether of place, ethnicity or religion—and the evidence of the preceding three. For all its tensions and rivalries 34, and sometimes because of them, the history of the union shows that the Scots, Welsh, English and Northern Irish are stronger, more tolerant and more imaginative together than they would be apart.
　　因此，留在联盟内的苏格兰不仅拯救了已屹立了三百年的英帝国，更是增进了其团结。即使如今有越来越多的人在否定英国历经百年才努力获得的光荣成就，并想通过分离独立以纯粹其自我身份，这个国家的伟大和特性依然属于苏格兰和整个英国，这点事实是不会改变的。独立的想法与如今这个多元的时代是背道而驰的。无论是在出身，民族，还是宗教上，现代人本就拥有多重属性。历史证明了，即使出现过紧张和对立的局面——但有时也正是因为这些紧张和对立—苏格兰、威尔士、英格兰、北爱尔兰的联合反而会比它们各自分裂时，更加团结、包容和富有创造力。