经济学人179:莱克星顿 左派步兵如痴如梦

 　　Lexington

　　莱克星顿
　　Dreamy footsoldiers of the Left
　　左派步兵，如痴如梦
　　Some Democrats 2 haven't noticed that the next election is this year, not 2016
　　一些民主党忽视下一场选举近在今年，而不是2016
　　ELECTION fever grips the American Left. A mood of scrappy, let-us-at-'em impatience 4 unites such gatherings 5 as Netroots Nation, an annual shindig which this year drew thousands of activists 6, organisers, bloggers and candidates to Detroit from July 17th-19th. Unfortunately for the broader Democratic Party, the election that inspires the grassroots is the 2016 presidential race. The mid-term congressional elections, which will happen much sooner (in November this year), provoke a more muted response, even though there is a good chance that Republicans will seize the Senate and cripple the rest of Barack Obama's presidency 7.
　　选举的风潮波及美国左派。但像网根国民大会这样的组织已经躁动不安，火急火燎，它每年纵情狂欢，今年7月17日到19日更是吸引了成百上千的激进分子，组织者，部落格和竞选者至底特律，然而对于包揽更广的民主党来说，真正让草根阶层精神抖擞的却是2016年的总统选举，即使11月的国会中期选举在即，共和党很有可能纵览大局，其余民主党席位也岌岌可危，他们却是缄默不语。
　　The kind of people who attend Netroots Nation are passionately 8 and uncompromisingly left wing. Their champion is Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, a former professor who crusades against “big banks”, “powerful corporations” and their enablers on the Right. “The game is rigged,” thundered Ms Warren, whose demands include more generous Social Security benefits (pensions) for the old (paid for with steep tax hikes), cheaper student loans, a higher minimum wage and other forms of redistribution. Not for her the business-friendly centrism of the Clinton clan 9. Hillary Clinton did not attend Netroots Nation, instead giving a TV interview in which she suggested that a bit of economic growth might make it easier to curb 10 inequality.
　　网根国民议会的参与者热情高涨，是不进油盐的左翼人士，他们拥护马塞诸塞州议员伊丽莎白沃伦，她是前任教授，反对大银行，有权势的的企业以及他们右派的支柱，她怒喝道:”这种竞争无异于徇私舞弊。'她要求给予老年人更优厚的社会保险（给老年人的养老补贴通过赋税急剧增长来买单），更便宜的学生贷款，更高的最低工资标准和其他形式的重新分配，对克林顿集团亲商界的温和主义路线嗤之以鼻，希拉里克林顿并未加入网根国民议会，她在电视访谈中说，经济一点点的增长，会使得缓解社会不公的工作更易进行
　　Sweet dreams are made of this
　　美梦何所在
　　莱克星顿.jpg
　　Ms Warren's warm-up act was Gary Peters, a local congressman 11 who, unlike Ms Warren, is running for election this year. Mr Peters, a moderate ex-banker, is trying to win a Senate seat that Democrats desperately 12 need to win but might not. He could use some grassroots support, but the crowd barely noticed him. They were too happy chanting “Run Liz, Run!” or waving “Elizabeth Warren for President” boater-style hats (“they're fun, they're old-timey,” said a hipster handing them out). Ms Warren says she is not running for the White House. No matter. Some 100 days from an election that could condemn 13 Mr Obama to near-impotence, some progressives prefer to daydream 14 about President Warren, “who won't stand for all the Wall Street bullshit”, to quote a new (endearingly terrible) folk song by her supporters.
　　沃伦小试牛刀的对手是加里比德斯，与沃伦不同，这位地区议员今年参加选举，他是一位温和的前银行家，尝试赢得一个民主党亟需的席位但可能不会成功，他能依赖一些草根阶层的支持，但基本为大众所忽视，他们乐意高呼:冲吧，利兹，向前冲！或者挥舞着硬草帽，上面标着“伊丽莎白沃伦竞选总统”的字样，（一个赶时髦的人说“这种复古的帽子十分有趣”）沃伦说她不打算竞争入驻白宫，这并无大碍，距离100天的中期选举，足以将奥巴马贬到一文不值，一些进步人士梦想着总统沃伦，她的支持者在新的民谣中唱道“她不会支持华尔街的所有扯谈。”
　　The Democrats' footsoldiers can ill afford to daydream in 2014. Even as digital technology transforms elections, recent research shows that flesh-and-blood volunteers tend to trump 15 paid advertising 16. Candidates need supporters to sway their friends and neighbours. This “ground war” is most crucial, for both sides, in the half-dozen swing states where Senate races could go either way. The trouble is, these states are quite conservative. So the Democrats running for office there often have views on guns, coal or fracking that appal 17 progressives, who are therefore reluctant to knock on doors for them.
　　民主党派没有在2014年做白日梦的资本，最近调查显示，即使在电子科技引领大选变革的今天，这些有血有肉的志愿者仍出资在广告上浓墨重彩，竞选者需要支持者说服他们的邻居朋友，这场“地面战”对于双方尤其重要，因为6个摇摆州的竞选走势难以预测，问题是，这些州趋于保守，而民主党人通常在枪支，煤，水力压裂法等进步问题上持有一家之言，很难打开这些州选民的心扉。
　　Like the Republicans with their Tea Party zealots, the Left must choose between purity and pragmatism. MoveOn, a lefty campaign behemoth which claims 8m members, has endorsed 18 only nine Senate candidates so far in this election cycle, conspicuously 19 excluding centrists in tight races in Georgia, Kentucky and Louisiana. The group will “sit out” some races; its members have drawn 20 a “bright line” against endorsing 21 senators who voted against increased background checks for gun-owners, for instance. In 2014 that rules out Mark Begich in Alaska and Mark Pryor in Arkansas.
　　正如共和党与茶党狂热者意气相投，左派也必须在纯洁和实用主义之间作出选择，左派竞选巨头MoveOn声称说8m成员在竞选中只认可了9名议员竞选者，很明显让乔治利亚，肯塔基和路易斯安娜州激烈竞选中的温和派吃了闭门羹，这一组织在部分竞争中坐看好戏，例如与那些拒绝增加枪支背景调查的议员划清界限，2014年，阿拉斯加的马克贝吉奇和阿肯色的马克普瑞被列入这一黑名单内。
　　Another group, the Progressive Change Campaign Committee (PCCC), whose members raised over $2.7m for 2012 candidates, calls itself “the Elizabeth Warren wing of the Democratic Party”. Its leaders can sound Tea Party-ish, declaring that “ideology” matters as much as finding candidates who can win. The PCCC has invested in such hopeless causes as the Senate race in South Dakota to demonstrate the power of “anti-corporate” messages delivered by the Democratic candidate there. Several leftish groups think the mid-terms are a chance to show that economic populism is the best way to woo unhappy voters, nationwide.
　　另一组织名叫渐进式改变运动委员会，该组织成员在2012年为竞选者募集了超过270万美元，自称是“民主党伊丽莎白沃伦之翼”，其领导者论调听起来有些茶党化，声称意识形态和找到必胜的候选人一样重要，这一组织也曾做了些无用功，如通过投资南达科他州的议员选举，以彰显该地民主党候选者抵制大企业声音高亢，一些左派组织认为中期选举是展示经济民粹主义在取悦全国选民方面，不失为最佳方式。
　　Yet Tea Party parallels are imperfect. Flinty conservatives often scoff 22 that moderate Republicans are no better than Democrats. Progressives are different: many think that Republicans are wicked. That pushes their leaders, at least, towards pragmatism. “We may have to compromise on some things [to beat the Republicans],” says a boss at Democracy For America (DFA), a group founded by Howard Dean, a former Vermont governor and presidential hopeful who claimed to represent “the Democratic wing of the Democratic Party”. Take Alaska's embattled senator. To DFA, Mr Begich has been “terrible” on oil and gas and “not good” on guns. But he is “fantastic” on inequality. In Louisiana local DFA members are holding their noses and helping 23 a pro-oil Democrat 1, Senator Mary Landrieu. Ultimately, DFA vows 24 to be “all over” any race that might decide the fate of the Senate. Should Democrats lose in 2014, blame candidates “who didn't run on expanding Social Security or [raising] the minimum wage,” insists Charles Chamberlain, DFA's executive director.
　　但茶党也不尽完美，强硬的保守党人常责备温和的共和党人比民主党人好不到哪儿去，但进步人士的观点不同，他们的很多认为共和党人十分邪恶，这至少驱使他们的领导者倾向于实用主义，一位领导者在民主美国组织上说，我们必须在部分问题上做出妥协以打败共和党人，这一组织是由前佛蒙特州长哈沃德迪安创立的，他可能会成为“民主党民主翼”的代表，击败阿拉斯加州四面楚歌的议员。对民主美国组织而言，贝吉奇在枪支问题上的表现糟糕，在石油天然气上尤差，却在社会不公问题上异想天开。路易斯安娜州地区组织成员极不情愿的帮了一位支持石油使用的民主党人玛丽朗德里厄，但最终他们还是发誓将在任何决定其命运的竞选中取得压倒性优势。该组织行政官查尔斯张伯伦说，如果民主党派在2014年大选中铩羽而归，责任就在那些不愿增加社会保险和最低工资的竞选者身上。
　　Both DFA and the PCCC plan to use digital wizardry to help members place campaign calls to districts across the country: a nifty trick in places where members despise their own party's local candidates. MoveOn tells activists that saving the Senate is the “most important priority” of 2014, reminding them that Mr Obama's ability to nominate judges is in the balance. Over on the centre-ground, Ready for Hillary, a group working to rally a volunteer army for Mrs Clinton's use (should she choose to run in 2016), will “amplify” any 2014 endorsements 25 made by their heroine, instantly urging supporters to lend a hand to that campaign.
　　民主美国和渐进式改变运动委员会计划使用数据技术将竞选推及全国各区，但对于那些对本区竞选者嗤之以鼻的人来说，这种伎俩口惠而实不至，MoveOn告诫激进分子保留议员席位是2014年的当务之急，提醒他们说奥巴马提名法官的能力已被架空。在中部阵营，一组织正在为克林顿招兵买马，一旦她决定参加2016年大选，便为之所用，他们将大肆宣扬这位“巾帼”在2014年所作出的任何承诺，不断要求支持者助竞选一臂之力。
　　On current showing, many will ignore such calls to arms in 2014. Despair with Mr Obama and this Congress may be part of the explanation. Progressive footsoldiers are waiting for the scrap 3 that really interests them: a fight to drag the Democratic Party leftwards to victory in 2016. Republicans, who have plenty of problems of their own, cannot believe their luck.
　　当下局势是，很多人都忽视了2014年为自身阵营添砖加瓦的号召，对于奥巴马和本届国会不屑一顾是原因之一，进步人士循其兴趣伺机而动，等待2016年将奥巴马和民主党一举拿下的完胜。共和党人自身弊病颇多，不敢靠运气行事。