经济学人184:谁是苏独拥护者?

 　　Who supports independence?

　　谁是苏独拥护者？
　　Yes men
　　赞成党
　　The typical pro-independence Scot is young, male and working-class
　　支持苏独的群体往往年轻，男性居多，中产阶级为主
　　WITH two months to go until Scotland votes on independence, opinion polls are in one sense rather disappointing. With only minor 1 blips, they continue to suggest that three out of five Scots favour sticking with Britain. Nothing that nationalists or unionists say seems to budge 2 opinion. But, as the polls pile up, something else is becoming clear: exactly how the country divides.
　　距离苏格兰公投仅有两个月之远，但从某种角度而言，民众投票结果却十分不尽如人意。仍显示五分之三的苏格兰民众不愿从大不列颠国独立出来。无论民族主义者亦或是联合主义者，都无法说服改变那些民众的想法。但随着调查结果的累积，人们找到了一些新的发现，一些迹象且越发的清晰：即全国意见具体如何分布。
　　苏独.jpg
　　Middle-class voters turn out to be more conservative than working-class ones. In the seven polls taken so far this year by ICM, the “no” camp has led by 19 points among the former but by four among the latter. The well-to-do are also firmer in their views, vacillating much less than working-class voters over the past few months.
　　调查数据显示中产阶级比工人阶级更为保守。截至当前，今年由ICM发起的7场调查活动中，中产阶级反独率高达19%，而工人阶级仅4%。同时，调查还发现富裕群体立场比较坚定。近数月来，其立场变化远没有工人阶级明显。
　　Unsurprisingly, given the class profile of “yes” support, the pro-independence camp is strong in Scotland's industrial heartland and weak in the areas farthest from it: the border with England to the south and the mountains and islands to the north. ICM's polls suggest that “no” leads by 13 points on average in the northern Highlands and Islands. In the most pro-independence region, Glasgow, it lags “yes” by a point.
　　毫不意外地是，即便工人阶级展现出赞成党形象，支持独立的阵营仍集中在苏格兰的工业核心区，而在它的边远地区，支持苏独的呼声远要小得多：英格兰南部边境一带和北部山区及岛屿附近。英国调查机构ICM发起的民意投票结果显示，在北部高地和岛屿地区，反对苏独的人口比例一般为13%。哥拉斯加最为拥护苏独一举，其反对苏独的人口比例也就低了一个百分点，为12%。
　　A Scot's appearance is another clue to his views. Grey hair and wrinkles suggest a “no” supporter. The young are keener on independence, which is one reason nationalists pushed to allow 16- and 17-year-olds to vote in the referendum. Some polls suggest people simply become more unionist as they age; others hint that people in their teens and 20s are slightly more conservative than people in their mid-20s to mid-30s.
　　苏格兰人民的长相也表明其意见想法。棕色头发和皱纹表现出他们是不支持苏格兰独立的。年轻一代更喜欢独立，正是如此，民族主义者允许16到17岁的公民参与公投。一些民意调查结果已经表征出，人们只是随着年龄的增长，渐渐会增强民族统一意识；也有些调查显示，青少年及20出头的人会比25-35岁之间的人稍微保守些。
　　But perhaps the starkest 3 demographic divide between “yes” and "no" supporters is sex.Polls consistently show that women are cooler on independence than men. Peter Kellner of YouGov, another pollster, says this is part of a broader pattern. Past opinion polling suggests that women are less supportive of wide-eyed or gung-ho policies in general, whether the issue is Scottish independence or foreign military adventures.
　　然而，或许性别差别才是支持和反对党间最明显的分水岭。调查结果始终表明，女性对独立的热情度往往不及男性。来自网上市场研究公司YouGov 的彼得?科尔Peter Kellner，表示性别差只是更广义范围下的一部分。过去的民意调查活动也显示，女性群体一般不大支持，无论是苏独还是外国军事冒险。
　　The fact that Scots are divided in so many ways means that “yes” and “no” supporters do not exist in separate bubbles. Rather, they rub up against each other-in the same towns, sometimes even in the same households. Perhaps that explains why one in four say they have rowed over independence with family members and friends.
　　苏格兰划分方式如此多元化，这证明苏独支持党和反对党并非独立存在。相反，他们是关系密切，相互影响着—在同一小镇，有时甚至在同一屋檐下。也许，那就是为何有1/4的人宣称，自己在苏独一事上和家人朋友分道扬镳。