经济学人181:朝鲜那个爱坐火车的主儿

 　　North Korea’s train-lover

　　朝鲜那个爱坐火车的主儿
　　A China hedge?
　　防范中国？
　　A hermit 1 makes a rare venture out of his kingdom
　　深居简出的金将军，罕見地走出国门到外面风险投机
　　Aug 27th 2011 | BEIJING AND TOKYO | from the print edition
　　EVEN by his own mercurial 2 standards, the contradictory 3 signals sent out this week by North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong Il, are unusual. One day his government was seizing the assets of a South Korean tourism venture in the North once hailed as a symbol of detente. Two days later Mr Kim, making his first visit to Russia in a decade, was discussing the possibility of a pipeline 4 carrying natural gas between Siberia and the two Koreas.
　　即便是以其常出人意料的标准来衡量，朝鲜领导人金正日本周放出的反常信号还是那么的非比寻常。某天，金将军的政府将曾被视为朝鲜半岛和解象征的金刚山旅游区内的韩方资产收归己有。两天之后，他又跑到俄罗斯，商讨铺设从西伯利亚到朝鲜和韩国的天然气输送管道，这是他十年来首次访问俄罗斯。
　　Mr Kim’s foray into Siberia began on August 20th, and was as usual by train (he has a fear of flying). In Ulan-Ude, Mr Kim met Russia’s president, Dmitry Medvedev, who treated the Dear Leader to some greasy 5 salmon 6 from Lake Baikal. Some in Russia have pushed the idea of piping Siberian gas to South Korea through the North, as well as connecting the three countries by rail. Perhaps North Korea, desperate for cash, is really interested. More likely, the interest is feigned 7. Russia is a useful supplier of free grain.
　　金正日对西伯利亚的“突然袭击”始于8月20日，一如既往地乘坐火车（将军害怕坐飞机）。俄罗斯总统梅德韦杰夫在乌兰乌德会见了这位贵客，并用贝加尔湖肥美的大马哈鱼款待了他。在俄国，有人推崇铺设西伯利亚至韩国的输气管道通过朝鲜，进而通过管道联通三国的理念。或许极度贫困的朝鲜是真的动心了。而更有可能的是，动心是假的，反正俄罗斯的便宜不占白不占。（*毛子这次在利比亚赔了几十亿美元的军火）
　　Importantly, the trip takes place at a time when Chinese diplomatic pressure is on North Korea to be less belligerent 8 towards the South, and Chinese influence in the North is growing. North Koreans resent both. Mr Kim may be hedging against over reliance on China by getting closer to Russia. Either way, the political risks for Russia and South Korea of a pipeline through the North are almost too high for the plan to be credible 9.
　　重要的是，这次访问发生的背景，是中国施加外交压力要求朝鲜减少对韩国的武力挑衅，以及中国在朝鲜的影响与日剧深。这两点都让朝鲜很不爽。所以将军想要拉拢俄国以防对中国过于依赖。但是不管怎样，铺设通过朝鲜的输气管道的政治风险，对俄罗斯和韩国来讲都是高的无法可信。
　　Russia has also been trying to persuade the North to restart regional talks over its nuclear-weapons programme in return for more aid. North Korea offered to suspend nuclear-missile testing and production if the six-party talks—also involving China, South Korea, Japan and the United States—resume. Few Korea-watchers give the offer much credence 10.
　　俄罗斯一直以来都在劝说朝鲜重启关于其核武的区域对话以换取更多的援助。而朝鲜则称如果六方会谈---包括中国、韩国、日本和美国在内---重启的话将暂停研制和生产核武器。对此鲜有观察者相信。
　　Meanwhile North Korea’s announcement on August 22nd that it was seizing the assets of a South Korean tourism venture at Mt Kumgang near the border was a sign that tensions with South Korea still run high. The project earned the North millions of dollars a year, before it closed after a North Korean soldier shot dead a South Korean tourist in 2008.
　　与此同时，8月22日朝鲜宣布没收靠近朝韩边界的金刚山旅游区内的韩方资产，标志着朝韩关系仍旧高度紧张。在2008年一名朝鲜士兵射杀一名韩国游客之前，金刚山旅游区每年都为朝鲜带来几百万美元的收益。
　　Just south of the demilitarised zone dividing the Koreas is a modern station with a sign on the platform pointing, almost wistfully, to Pyongyang, 205km (130 miles) to the north. No train has ever reached there. The station’s eerie 11 brightness is a reminder 12 of too many false dawns. The mooted 13 pipeline is not going to usher 14 in a real one.
　　在划分两朝的非军事区以南就有一座现代化车站，站台上的牌子满怀忧愁地指向北方205公里（130英里）以外的平壤。从来没有火车到达过那里。这座车站怪诞的鲜亮色彩对曾经太多的虚幻黎明是一种提醒。而争论不休的管道计划未来不可能变成现实。