环球英语 — 145：Predicting Disease by Watching。。。

　　Voice 1

Thank you for joining us for today’s Spotlight 1 program. I’m Rachel Hobson.

Voice 2

And I’m Liz Waid. Spotlight uses a special English method of broadcasting. It is easier for people to understand, no matter where in the world they live.

Voice 1

Today’s Spotlight is on avoiding diseases 3 by watching the weather.

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In Africa, a valley stretches north to south for thousands of kilometres. It runs from northern Syria in Southwest Asia to central Mozambique in eastern Africa. In some places it is one hundred sixty [160] kilometers wide. In some places it is a few thousand meters deep. It helps to form some of the world’s highest mountains and deepest lakes. Some of the world’s most powerful volcanoes 4 are there. And experts have found many examples of ancient life near it. It is the Great Rift 5 Valley. The Great Rift Valley is a place of great beauty.

Voice 1

But the Great Rift Valley can also be a place of great tragedy and sadness. It was here in 1930 that scientists investigated an unknown disease 2. The disease was affecting sheep near the Great Rift Valley, in the country of Kenya. Doctors identified the disease as Rift Valley Fever, or, RVF.

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RVF is not permanently 6 active. Instead, it appears about every five [5] years in an outbreak. RVF affects animals very severely 7. For example, in a normal outbreak of the disease, about ten [10] percent of adult sheep die. And about ninety [90] percent of young sheep die. RVF also causes pregnant 8 animals to immediately lose their unborn babies. The disease spreads quickly.

Voice 1

RVF mostly affects animals. But, it can also affect people. Small flying insects, mosquitoes, usually carry and spread the virus. People can get the virus from the bite of an infected mosquito. Or, they can get the virus by touching 9 the blood or bodily fluids 10 of an infected animal. In rare cases, people can become infected by breathing in the virus.

Voice 2

People suffering from RVF usually experience physical problems similar to influenza 11 - like fever, weakness, and back pain. They may lose body weight. People usually recover after a few days or a week. But the infection can be severe. RVF can cause severe bleeding, pressure on the brain, and very bad eye problems. These problems can be painful and permanent. About one [1] percent of RVF infected people die.

Voice 1

There are some ways to prevent and control Rift Valley Fever. Doctors can sometimes treat it with drugs. Injected drug vaccinations 12 can protect animals from the disease. People can also spread chemicals around the area to kill insects. RVF outbreaks usually only happen about once every five [5] years. But the effects are always tragic 13. RVF is especially dangerous because it is difficult to predict. People usually do not know when the disease will attack. So, it is hard to use these prevention methods well.

Voice 2

For example, in 1997 Kenya experienced 14 a severe RVF outbreak. International aid experts and health workers tried to react to the crisis 15. But they were too slow. By the time aid workers arrived, the crisis was already over. The RVF outbreak had killed about four hundred [400] people.

Voice 1

But scientists believe that they may have found a way to help people prepare for outbreaks of diseases like RVF. Assaf Anyamba is a climate expert at NASA, the National Aeronautics 17 and Space Administration 18, in the United States. He studies weather movement and repeating weather patterns. Assaf says that studying weather patterns and climate changes can help to predict, or expect, an outbreak of disease.

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For example, the temperature of the sea influences the temperature of the air above it. When water temperature changes, it makes the air move, influencing the wind. These changes in wind movement influence weather and rainfall in many places - even far away!

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Assaf and his team observe weather all around the world. They collect many different kinds of information. For example, they study cloud movement and how much rain an area receives. They study how much water is in the air. And they look at the plants in a particular area.

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Assaf sends the weather information he gathers to different organizations - like the World Health Organization and the Food and Agriculture Organization. These groups send the information to the affected 19 countries. Then health workers can be prepared for the outbreak. They can bring enough medicine to affected areas. And they can react to a disease crisis sooner.

Voice 1

Recently, Assaf showed the world that predicting the weather could save lives. It could avoid suffering like that in Kenya, in 1997. In September 2006, Assaf noticed changes in the weather in Kenya. The sea was especially warm. And rainfall began to increase. Soon, flooding began. Disease carriers 20 like mosquitoes mate 16 and reproduce 21 best in warm, wet weather like this. Assaf says that all these conditions were right for a possible disease outbreak.

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Assaf and his team warned the Kenyan government. And the Kenyan government reacted quickly. They knew that people could get RVF by touching infected animals. So, they banned animal sacrifice of cows, camels, goats, and sheep during a particular yearly 22 celebration. Experts believe that this act reduced the risk of spreading the disease there.

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The first case of the RVF outbreak appeared in Kenya in December 2006. But this time health experts were prepared. And they reacted immediately. This time, there were fewer deaths from RVF than in 199]. In that year, four hundred [400] people died. But in 2006, only one hundred four [104] people died.

Voice 2

Predicting disease outbreak by following weather is a good method. But there are some limits to how helpful this method can be. Aid workers already have a lot of work to do in developing countries. Experts say that it may be difficult for them to follow the weather too. And even with a warning, aid workers may not be able to react quickly enough. They may still have limited resources. Just knowing when a disease outbreak may begin is not enough. Dr. Diarmid Campbell-Lendrum is a climate change expert with the WHO. He agrees.

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“We run the risk of just coming up with a very [exact] warning system without having any [ability] to [react]. [For example,] you cannot solve malaria 23 problems in Africa just by providing better risk information.”

Voice 1

Assaf believes that although the method is not perfect, it can be a great help to global public health.

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“This is [the most important part] of ten [10] years of [hard, devoted] work. It is a great pleasure to have the [chance] to translate scientific [research] and analysis results into products that [help] global public health.”

Voice 2

So, when the weather changes, Assaf and his team will be watching - and hopefully, saving 24 lives.