VOA双语新闻：外国直接投资预计2011年反弹

　　A new U.N. report says foreign direct investment by transnational corporations will start to recover in 2010 and rebound 1 substantially in 2011. The U.N. Conference on Trade and Development has published the results of this year's World Investment Prospects 2 Survey.

联合国一份新的报告说，跨国公司的海外直接投资将在2010年开始复苏，并在2011年出现实质性反弹。这是联合国贸易和发展会议(U.N. Conference on Trade and Development)最新公布的世界投资前景调查报告(World Investment Prospects Survey)得出的结论。

More than 240 transnational corporations were surveyed for this report. The results show a drastic 54 percent decline in foreign direct investment inflows for the first quarter of 2009.

这份报告对240多家跨国公司进行了调查。结果显示，2009年第一季度海外直接投资跟去年同期相比大幅度下降了54%。

The UNCTAD survey finds cross border mergers 3 and acquisitions dropped by an even more dramatic 77 percent, compared to the same period last year.

联合国贸发会在调查中还发现，公司跨国并购与去年同期相比更是急剧减少了77%。

Although this gloomy situation is expected to persist throughout the year, the transnational corporations surveyed indicate they expect foreign direct investment will progressively recover in 2010 and gain momentum 4 in 2011.

虽然这种低迷的形势预计会延续到年底，但接受调查的跨国公司表示，他们预计海外直接投资将在2010年逐渐复苏，并在2011年显著增加。

But, UNCTAD Director of Division on Investment and Enterprise James Zhan warns of several risks related to the recovery of FDI.

但是，联合国贸发会投资和企业司司长詹晓宁(James Zhan)警告说，海外直接投资复苏可能面临几个风险。

"One is the further global economic downturn," he said. "A second is an increase in financial instability and a third, which is very interesting, is the rise of protectionism involving a change in foreign investment regime."

詹晓宁说：“一个(风险)是全球经济继续下滑；第二个是金融更加不稳定；第三个非常有意思，那就是保护主义抬头导致海外投资管理体制出现变化。”

Zhan says protectionism is not a big deal at the moment. But, he says the TNC's concerns about the risk of protectionism in foreign investments is not ungrounded.

詹晓宁说，保护主义目前并不严重。但是他说，跨国公司(TNC)担心海外投资领域会出现保护主义，这不是没有根据的。

"The economic stimulus 5 packages could give rise to what can be labeled as smart protectionism," said Zhan. "Furthermore, a new wave of economic nationalism could occur in the aftermath of the crisis when the exit of the public investment from the bailout flagship industries might lead to the protectionism of the national 'champions' from the foreign takeovers."

詹晓宁说：“经济刺激计划可能会助长所谓灵巧的保护主义。尤其是在危机过后，政府撤出用于拯救领军产业的公共投资时，使新一波的经济民族主义抬头，导致政府出面保护国家的龙头企业，防止它们被外国公司收购。”

The survey finds FDI prospects remain bright in the agriculture and services industries, while the situation is less optimistic for the manufacturing sector 6.

这份调查报告发现，农业与服务业的海外直接投资前景继续光明，但制造业的海外投资前景就不那么乐观了。

It says developed countries from North America and the European Union are the regions most affected 7 by the crisis. Sub-Saharan Africa and North Africa are least affected.

报告说，北美与欧盟的发达国家受危机影响最重，非洲撒哈拉以南和北非地区受危机影响最轻。

The survey shows developing countries in East and Southeast Asia are particularly attractive destinations for foreign investment. And, it notes the top five spots favored by TNC's are China, the United States, India, Brazil, and Russia.

报告显示，东亚与东南亚的发展中国家对海外投资特别有吸引力。报告说，最受跨国公司偏爱的五大投资对象国是中国、美国、印度、巴西与俄罗斯。