默克尔如何应对民粹政党崛起

 　　The state of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern is something of a backwater.

　　梅克伦堡-前波莫瑞州（Mecklenburg-Vorpommern，以下简称梅前州）有点儿闭塞。
　　Otto von Bismarck is said to have quipped that, if the world was about to end, he would move to Mecklenburg as it would take a further 50 years for the apocalypse to arrive there.
　　据说奥托?冯?俾斯麦(Otto von Bismarck)曾打趣说，如果世界末日到来，他将会搬到梅克伦堡去住，因为大灾难还得50年才能抵达那里。
　　Yet the election to its state legislature put this rural corner of northeastern Germany at the heart of a long-overdue debate.
　　然而该州立法机构的选举让这个位于德国东北部的偏远地区成为一场拖延已久的辩论的焦点。
　　Chancellor 1 Angela Merkel’s Christian 2 Democrats 3 (CDU) finished third in Sunday’s poll behind the rightwing populist Alternative for Germany and the Social Democrats (SPD).
　　德国总理安格拉?默克尔(Angela Merkel)的基民盟(CDU)在上周日梅前州议会选举中的得票位列第三，落后于右翼民粹政党德国新选择党(Alternative for Germany)和社民党(SPD)。
　　The question is how to deal with the AfD now it is here to stay.
　　问题是如何应对现在已经站稳脚跟的德国新选择党。
　　The difficulty is that this is a party to which many of the usual rules of German political life do not seem to apply.
　　困难在于，这是一个似乎不适用诸多德国政治常规的政党。
　　Normally, voters shun 4 parties whose top officials publicly fight among themselves.
　　在正常情况下，选民不会支持最高层官员公开内讧的政党。
　　Not so with the AfD.
　　这并不适用于德国新选择党。
　　Public mudslinging among party leaders does not appear to be putting people off.
　　该党领导人彼此公开诋毁似乎并没有让人们放弃支持。
　　Moreover, voters normally abandon their support for anti-establishment parties once a particular problem is solved or is no longer at the top of the political agenda.
　　此外，一旦某一特定问题得到解决或者不再处于政治议程的首位，选民通常就会放弃对反建制政党的支持。
　　This is what happened in the early summer of 2015 when the crisis in the eurozone was solved, for the time being at least, with a third bailout deal for Greece.
　　当2015年夏初相关各方就希腊第三轮纾困达成协议、欧元区危机得到解决（至少暂时得到解决）的时候就是这样。
　　The AfD’s opinion poll ratings went down almost immediately.
　　德国新选择党的民调支持率几乎应声下跌。
　　Not so this time.
　　这次却不是这样。
　　The massive influx 5 of refugees and migrants from Syria and elsewhere in the Middle East has long since slowed to a trickle 6 yet the AfD is still going strong.
　　来自叙利亚和其他中东地区的难民和移民已经从大规模涌入转变为零星进入，然而德国新选择党仍在壮大。
　　This is bad news for Ms Merkel.
　　这对默克尔来说是坏消息。
　　Her style is pragmatic rather than emotional or charismatic.
　　她的风格是务实型、而非情感型或魅力型。
　　But it is emotion and fear that are fuelling the rise of the AfD, and the chancellor appears to have no answer to it.
　　但正是情感和担忧促成了德国新选择党的崛起，默克尔似乎没有解决办法。
　　Nevertheless, she will not budge 7.
　　然而，她不会动摇。
　　Last week, she reaffirmed her refugee policy.
　　上周，她重申了自己的难民政策。
　　I don’t regret anything, she said in an interview with the Bild newspaper.
　　她在接受德国《图片报》(Bild)采访时表示：我不后悔任何事。
　　In the wake of the CDU’s third place in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, party officials, as well as ordinary members, are getting nervous.
　　基民盟在梅前州议会选举中的得票位列第三位之后，党内官员以及普通党员越来越感到担忧。
　　They ask anxiously whether the party can still win elections with Ms Merkel at the helm.
　　他们不安地质问，在默克尔掌舵下，基民盟还能否赢得选举。
　　At the same time, adding to the sense of helplessness, they know that there is no obvious or plausible 8 alternative to her.
　　与此同时，他们也知道没有明显或貌似合理的替代人选，这更让他们感觉无助。
　　Win or lose, the party is chained to Ms Merkel, who will urge her colleagues and supporters to be patient.
　　无论赢得还是输掉选举，基民盟都与默克尔休戚相关，她将敦促同僚和支持者保持耐心。
　　In December, a CDU convention is supposed to re-elect her as party leader.
　　在今年12月，默克尔有望在基民盟大会上再次当选为领导人。
　　It is highly likely that she will use the occasion to announce her intention to run for the chancellorship 9 again.
　　她届时很可能宣布有意再次竞选总理。
　　In short, the AfD is not going away and nor is Ms Merkel.
　　简言之，德国新选择党不会走开，默克尔也不会。
　　So the CDU must decide whether the taboo 10 on coalition 11-building with the AfD will be permanent.
　　因此基民盟必须决定，不能与德国新选择党缔结联盟的禁忌是否是永久性的。
　　The discussion in the party will be painful, as much as the one the SPD had to undergo when the formerly 12 communist Die Linke party did not vanish after reunification in 1990.
　　该党将会进行痛苦的讨论，就像是在1990年两德统一后，原共产主义党派德国左翼党(Die Linke)没有消亡的时候，社民党不得不展开的讨论那样。
　　Bringing the AfD into the fold might be a way to defang a populist movement that is clearly anti-establishment and xenophobic.
　　拉拢德国新选择党可能大大削弱显然是反建制和排外的民粹运动。
　　AfD officials say openly that they do not want to be in government but they cannot explain why.
　　德国新选择党官员公开表示，他们不想上台执政，但他们无法说清原因。
　　Pressing them on this point might be a more effective way of draining support for the populist party than any of the other strategies that the CDU has attempted.
　　与基民盟已尝试的其他战略相比，在这一点上施压可能会更为有效地削弱该党的支持。
　　Unfortunately, Ms Merkel is not a particularly daring or audacious politician.
　　遗憾的是，默克尔不是特别勇敢或者大胆的政客。
　　In all likelihood, she will try to keep on doing business as usual instead of broaching 13 the delicate subject of coalition or co-operation with the AfD.
　　她将很有可能像往常那样行事，而不是提出与德国新选择党组建联盟或合作的敏感话题。
　　The chancellor might even tacitly count on the AfD entering the Bundestag after the elections in autumn 2017 because, if it does, it will be mathematically impossible to construct a governing majority without her and the CDU.
　　默克尔可能甚至暗中希望新选择党在2017年秋季选举之后进入德国联邦议院，因为如果该党进入联邦议院，在缺少默克尔和基民盟的情况下，组成执政所需的多数席位从数学角度来说是不可能的。
　　The paradox 14 is that a strong AfD will probably help Ms Merkel stay in power for another term.
　　矛盾之处在于，一个强大的新选择党很可能将帮助默克尔再连任一届。