走运比优秀更好 光大证券的运气

 　　In few arenas 1 is the cliché “it is better to be lucky than good” as apt as in financial markets.

　　几乎没有哪个领域比金融市场更适用“走运比优秀更好”这句陈词滥调了。
　　Everbright Securities, which prices its Hong Kong listing today, may just have got lucky.
　　光大证券(Everbright Securities)或许就是走了运。它正在香港发行H股，预期定价日不晚于本周日。
　　Yesterday, shares in Hong Kong listed brokerages rose as much as a tenth, with Guotai Junan leading the way. The cause was reports that Shenzhen Connect, a scheme allowing overseas investors 2 to buy shares in Shenzhen-listed stocks through Hong Kong, might soon launch. Everbright should benefit from this — and its Hong-Kong share offering already looks attractively priced.
　　昨日，在港上市券商的股价上涨高达十分之一，国泰君安(Guotai Junan)的涨幅最高。原因是有报道称，让海外投资者能够通过香港买入深市股票的“深港通”(Shenzhen Connect)机制可能很快就要推出。光大证券应该能够从中获益，而且其H股的发行价本身就已经很诱人了。
　　The company already has a mainland-listed A share against which the H’s looks attractive. The proposed price range in Hong Kong of HK$11.80 to HK$13.26 puts it at a discount of at least a third. The dual-listing average is 20 per cent.
　　和光大证券已在内地上市的A股相比，其H股看起来很有吸引力。光大证券H股的发行价区间在每股11.8到13.26港元之间，相对A股折价至少三分之一。在内地和香港同时上市的公司的两地股价差平均为20%。
　　At the high end, the price multiple of 12 times 2017 consensus 3 forecast earnings 4 is reasonable, given earnings growth of 20 per cent. Between a half and three-quarters of the issue has been pre-sold.
　　按照最高发行价，光大证券H股以2017年普遍预期盈利（假设盈利增长率为20%）计算的市盈率为12倍，处于合理水平。此次发行有二分之一到四分之三的股份已被预先认购。
　　As China opens its capital markets, there is a lot of potential for growth in the financial services sector 5. Greenwich Associates notes that half of institutional commissions in Asia are paid for trading China and Hong Kong securities. Yet competition is fierce.
　　随着中国开放资本市场，金融服务行业有很大的增长潜力。Greenwich Associates指出，亚洲的机构佣金中有一半都是为交易中国和香港的证券支付的。然而竞争非常激烈。
　　Hong Kong has more than 100 firms offering brokerage services — both bulge 6 bracket and local players — looking to benefit from the trend.
　　包括国际大投行和本土参与者在内，香港有超过100家机构提供券商服务，它们都希望从这一趋势中得益。
　　The field is also crowded on the mainland. Everbright Securities is one of 125 local players. Activity is disbursed 7: the top 10 account for only half of Shanghai and Shenzhen trading volumes, Everbright says.
　　在内地，这个领域也同样拥挤。光大证券是125家内地券商之一。这个市场非常分散：光大证券表示，前十大券商只占沪深两市交易量的一半。
　　Industry revenues, meanwhile, are still heavily dependent on equity 8 markets. In the first half of this year, the top line halved 9. Most of that was due to commissions and proprietary 10 trading, both of which plunged 11. Fee-generation services such as custody 12 and advisory 13 grew strongly, but even against shrunken equity market business, such divisions accounted for less than a third of the total.
　　同时，这个行业的收入仍非常依赖股市。今年上半年，行业收入减半，这在很大程度上要归咎于佣金和自营交易——两者都出现了暴跌。收取服务费的业务（如托管和咨询）增长强劲，但即使是和缩水后的股市业务相比，这些业务在总收入中的占比仍少于三分之一。
　　There is consolidation 14 ahead, if the US is any guide. There, the top five banks earn two-fifths of trading commissions. Everbright, just outside China’s top 10 by revenue, ought to be an attractive morsel 15. But state-owned Everbright Group owns half of the company. It will not be for sale.
　　如果认为美国的经验有参照性，那么可以说中国券商行业将迎来整合。在美国，排名前五的银行赚取了五分之二的交易佣金。以收入计刚好排在中国券商前十以外的光大证券理应是一个诱人的整合对象。但国有的光大集团(Everbright Group)拥有光大证券一半的股份。光大证券是不会出售的。