经济学人139:美国和南亚 坏到底的三角关系

　　America and South Asia

美国和南亚

Infernal triangle

坏到底的三角关系

A history of America's tangled 1 dealings with India and Pakistan

美国应付印巴关系—乱如麻的历史

A friendly wave from Mr Sharif

谢里夫挥舞着手臂以示友好

Avoiding Armageddon: America, India and Pakistan to the Brink 2 and Back.By Bruce Riedel.

书名：《逃离浩劫：美印巴三国又退到了悬崖边上》

乱如麻的历史.jpg

THE recent election of a new government in Pakistan led by Nawaz Sharif seems to bode 3 well for an easing of tensions on the subcontinent. When Mr Sharif was last in office, in 1999, he achieved a breakthrough in relations with India. That, however, was soon followed by the most recent of the four wars the two countries have fought. Undaunted, he says again that he wants to make friends with India.

目前由纳瓦兹谢里夫领导的巴基斯坦展开了新一轮政府大选，这次大选似乎很好地预示了南亚次大陆紧张局势有缓解的趋势。上一次担任总理一职还是在1999年，谢里夫当时在处理与印度关系上取得突破性进展；虽然成果很快就由印巴四次战争所取代。如今谢里夫毫不气馁的再一次表示要同印度做朋友。

Five years ago, the last time a new Pakistani government took over, it too promised a new era in relations. That came to naught 4 when a terrorist onslaught on the city of Mumbai was carried out by Pakistanis with, the evidence suggests, the help of Pakistan's spy service.

五年前上一届巴基斯坦新政府刚刚掌权时，政府同样承诺开启印巴关系新纪元。随着孟买遭到恐怖分子的猛烈攻击，随着有关证据显示袭击是巴基斯坦情报机关提供帮助，巴国人策划实施，一切都化为泡影。

In his 2009 book, “Deadly Embrace”, Bruce Riedel, a former CIA analyst 5 long at the centre of American decision-making about South Asia, told the unhappy story of America's relations with Pakistan. From the Pakistani side, it was a tale of repeated betrayal by a fickle 6 ally. For the Americans it was one of constant double-dealing from a partner that later could not be trusted with an advance warning of the raid that killed Osama bin 7 Laden 8 in 2011.

布鲁斯里德尔之前一直在美国决策中心南亚分部任中央情报局分析员。2009年，里德尔出版《致命的拥抱》，书中讲述了关于美巴不尽如人意的关系。从巴国角度看，其实就是一个善变的盟友反复无常上演背叛的故事。从美国的角度看，则是一个伙伴不断的做一些背信弃义的事情；之后，2011年美国连刺杀本拉登的消息都没有提前向巴方通告。

“Avoiding Armageddon”, his new book, adds the other two sides of the triangle: the India-Pakistan saga 9 of wars, near- wars and uncertain peaces, and America's scratchy relations with India. Of course, the main obstacle for India has been America's close ties with Pakistan. These present American diplomacy 10 with one of its trickiest 11 balancing acts. Pakistan will remain an important ally as American troops pull out of Afghanistan in large numbers before 2015. Yet, in Mr Riedel's blunt summary: “America and Pakistan are on opposite sides in the Afghan civil war.”

里德尔的新书《逃离浩劫》将三角关系的另两边加了进来：印巴长期以来繁冗的战事、几次接近战争的边缘和不确定的和平；美印之间棘手的关系。诚然，印度眼里的“沙子”正是美巴之间密切的关系。这些恰恰展示了美国人技术含量颇高的外交平衡手段。2015年美军从阿富汗撤军之前，巴基斯坦人仍旧是美国重要的盟友。不过，里德尔毫不掩饰的指出：“美巴双方之于阿富汗内战的态度是完全对立的。”

America has also invested heavily in building close ties with India, as a kindred democratic spirit and a counterweight to a rising China. As Mr Riedel points out, Barack Obama is not the first president to try to “have it both ways” in pursuing good relations with both India and Pakistan. Mr Riedel also recalls that American presidential efforts have “consistently failed”.

因为印度与美国有相同的民主理念，可以作为制衡飞速发展中国的棋子，美国同样花了大力气建立密切的美印关系。里德尔指出，对于美印和美巴关系，奥巴马并不是美国历史上第一位试图“同时拉拢”的总统。同时他还回忆说美国总统的这些努力总是在“一如既往的失败”。

So America is in a weak position to influence one of the world's most dangerous potential conflicts. If nuclear war is ever to be fought, India and Pakistan are the most likely battlefields. India showed remarkable 12 restraint after the 2008 Mumbai attack. It would find it hard to do so again. Pakistan would lose a conventional war with India, so it might be tempted 13 to use its nuclear arsenal 14, which it is expanding fast.

这样说来，美国即是在以一个弱势的角色，想去影响世界上最危险的潜在冲突。如果世界爆发核战争，印巴绝对是第一战场。印度在2008年孟买遭袭后显出了异乎寻常的自制力。但是，如果我们希望印度继续克己，当真难上加难。巴基斯坦和印度开战，绝对不会拥有打常规战争的机会，所以巴国也会动用自己的核武器储备，动用本国扩充迅猛的核武储备。

Mr Riedel, like most analysts 15, is better at describing why it is so difficult to repair India-Pakistan relations, and why it would be so desirable to do so, than at charting how. But he has presented a cogent 16 argument that America—and other outside powers—should be trying harder.

与大多数分析家一样，里德尔也更擅长去形容一番为什么印巴关系难以修复，为什么两国冲突不可避免，而不是仔细观察，寻找解决之道。好在里德尔展示了一个令人信服的论证，即美国和其他外部势力应该再加把劲。