经济学人72:美国驻日军队,又一年的迷失

 　　American forces in Japan

　　美国驻日军队
　　Another lost year
　　又一年的迷失
　　Some unspoken truths about Japan’s security relationship with America
　　日本与美国安全关系方面几个不言而喻的真相
　　May 26th 2011 | TOKYO | from the print edition
　　LESS than a month after a new government took office in Japan in September 2009, American officials talked their Japanese counterparts through a longstanding frustration 1: stalled plans to build a new airbase for American marines on the southern island of Okinawa. According to confidential 2 minutes of the meeting sent to Washington, DC by the American embassy in Tokyo, leaked by WikiLeaks, Kurt Campbell, an assistant secretary of state, said a new airstrip was necessary because of China’s growing military strength. But that could not be discussed publicly, “for obvious reasons”.
　　2009年9月日本新政府走马上任，在此后不到一个月的时间里，美国官员与他们的日本同行讨论了这个持续已久的麻烦事——美国海军要在冲绳岛（Okinawa）南侧修建新空军基地的计划陷入僵局。会议的秘密记录从东京的美国大使馆送到了华盛顿特区，但是被维基解密泄露出来，根据这份记录，美国国务卿的助理柯特??坎贝尔（Kurt Campbell）认为：由于中国军事力量日益强大，修建新的空军基地势在必行。但是“由于某些明显原因”，这种话题显然不能拿到桌子上谈。
　　A few months later Mr Campbell went further, according to another cable. Because of potential threats from North Korea, China and elsewhere, America and Japan faced “the most challenging security environment” in 50 years. However, he said the messages to the public often glossed 3 over that reality. Presumably that too was to avoid offending China, even though it would have helped Okinawans to understand why the new facility is deemed so important.
　　根据另一份报告，坎贝尔进一步的提出。由于朝鲜、中国和其他地方存在着潜在威胁，美国和日本在未来50年里面临“最严峻的安全环境”。但是，他认为对公众透露的信息总会掩盖事实真相。这也被推测为避免冒犯中国，尽管这有助于冲绳岛居民了解为何新空军基地举足轻重的地位。
　　Exactly a year ago both allies agreed to push ahead with the plan to shut down the Futenma airbase in a dangerously overcrowded part of Okinawa and rebuild it in a less populated area, by the beach at Henoko (see map). They also aimed to move thousands of marines and their families to the American territory of Guam, mostly paid for by Japan. Five days later Yukio Hatoyama, Japan’s then prime minister, resigned, in part because of his broken promise to the people of Okinawa to move the base off the island altogether.
　　一年之前，双方盟友同意督促关闭位于冲绳岛人口极度密集地区的普天间（Futenma）军事基地的计划，而在人口较少的边野古（Henoko）海岸线重新修建一个（见图）。同时他们旨在让数千海军及其家属撤向美国关岛（Guam），这一行动绝大多数费用由日本支付。五天后，当时的日本首相鸠山由纪夫（Yukio Hatoyama）辞职，部分原因就是他没有履行与冲绳居民把军事基地完全搬离该岛的承诺。
　　Today the two sides are no closer to implementing 4 the plan than they were on the day it was signed. Okinawans still fiercely oppose it, despite collusion by American and Japanese officials and politicians to put as rosy 5 a spin on the details as possible.
　　比起签订计划的时候，现在的双方在实现计划上显得貌合神离。尽管美国和日本官员与政治家尽可能互相在细节上周旋，冲绳居民仍然强烈反对这一计划。
　　For instance, the WikiLeaks cables show that the number of marines and their dependents slated 6 for removal to Guam has been inflated 7 in order to soften 8 opposition 9. Last year’s agreement mentions the removal of about 8,000 marines and 9,000 dependents. But an American embassy cable in 2009 says that when the plan was formulated 10 in 2006, “both the 8,000 and 9,000 numbers were deliberately 11 maximised to optimise political value in Japan.” Okinawa officials suspect that the number of Guam-bound marines may be as few as 3,000—if they go at all.
　　比方说，维基解密的报告显示：为了缓和反对的气氛，即将撤向关岛的海军及其家属的数量远少于官方数字。去年的协定提到大约有8000名海军和9000名家属撤离。冲绳县官员怀疑向关岛方向撤离的海军可能也就3000人——假设他们是完全撤离。
　　When it came to power in 2009, the ruling Democratic Party of Japan, which had opposed the relocation plan in opposition, came under intense pressure from Washington to push ahead with it. American officials urged the new government not to discuss alternatives in public, warning of a strong American reaction if it did, according to WikiLeaks. Yet this month three senators including Carl Levin, chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, and John McCain, the committee’s ranking Republican, went public with their own alternative, describing the current Futenma relocation plan as “unrealistic, unworkable and unaffordable”. In Japan their views have caused a stir.
　　当计划在2009年实行时，当时的执政党为反对迁移基地计划的日本民主党，该党感受到华盛顿方面对推行这一计划的巨大压力。根据维基解密，美国官员催促日本政府不要公开讨论备选方案，并且警告日本如果公开讨论那么美国就会“大动作”。 然而本月，三名参议员包括参议员军事委员会主席卡尔??列文（Carl Levin）和委员会的资深共和党约翰??麦凯恩（John McCain）公开了他们的备选方案，这个方案把普天间迁移计划描述为“不现实、没作用并且负担不起”的计划。在日本，他们的观点引起了轰动。
　　The senators argue that instead of building a costly 12 new facility, the marines should be moved to a huge existing base in Okinawa called Kadena, and that part of the American air force currently at Kadena should be relocated to Guam. Okinawans living near Kadena stridently oppose the marines, but the senators say the idea could free up land and reduce noise levels around Kadena. Moreover, the senators say, with the huge costs of the March earthquake and tsunami 13, Japan can hardly afford to add to its fiscal 14 burden. The third senator, Jim Webb, adds that Robert Gates, America’s outgoing defence secretary, is “very open to our suggestions”.
　　参议员认为，与其修建开销巨大的新基地，不如让海军搬到在冲绳嘉手纳（Kadena）已经修建好的巨大军事基地，而在这个基地的部分美国空军可以撤离到关岛。居住在嘉手纳附近的冲绳岛居民反对海军的到来，但是参议员说这个提议能腾出土地并且减少嘉手纳附近的噪音等级。此外，参议员说由于三月地震和海啸的巨大开销，日本很难承受的起撤离计划的财政负担。第三位参议员吉姆??韦伯（Jim Webb）补充道：“美国即将离任的国防部长罗伯特??盖茨（Robert Gates）非常同意我们的建议。”
　　All the same, this week Japanese and American officials, including Mr Campbell, reaffirmed their commitment to the relocation plan, as if the senators’ idea was off the table. Yet no one thinks the original deadline of 2014 for moving the base will be met. Indeed, given the opposition in Okinawa, perhaps Futenma’s replacement 15 at Henoko will never be built. In which case, Kadena may prove the only option. It seems as foolhardy not to discuss the option as it is to maintain such an awkward silence over China’s rise.
　　本周日本官员和美国包括坎贝尔在内的官员还是重新确认了迁移计划，就好像参议员的提议从来没有提起过一样。然而，没人认为最初确定的2014年之前撤离整个基地的计划能够实现。事实上，考虑到冲绳县反对的声音，作为普天间军事基地替代的嘉手纳基地可能永远都修建不起来。在这种情况下，嘉手纳可能是唯一的选项。就像对中国的崛起保持尴尬的沉默一样，不讨论这一选项似乎也是很鲁莽的行为。