中东—谁会成为叙利亚领导人还是个迷

Analysis: Syria's Leader Remains 1 an Enigma 2

谁会成为叙利亚领导人还是个迷

Had it not been for the premature 3 death of the eldest 4 son of the Assad clan 5, Bashar al-Assad might well be enjoying the quiet life of a private medical practice in Damascus, or London, or perhaps Paris, as he speaks both English and French. 

But when his brother was killed in an automobile 6 accident in 1994, his father, Syrian President Hafez al-Assad called him home from London where he had been studied in and began grooming 8 him for a political life. Six years later, Hafez died and Bashar al-Assad was Syria's new president.

At the recent annual conference of the Middle East Institute in Washington, journalist and political analyst 9 Hisham Melhem of al-Arabiya TV said that was one of the few mistakes made by the wily Hafez al-Assad.

Hisham Melhem: But I would argue that one of his biggest mistakes, if you will, was to bequeath the realm, so to speak, to his son, a 35-year old inexperienced young man. Now, Bashar's era shows, I would argue, the pitfalls 11 of political inheritance in the Arab world. And it's very hard, five years after he began his rule, to point out to a single domestic, regional or international decision that this regime made that was wise or farsighted.  And I'm not being harsh on him.

Originally trained in the West as an ophthalmologist, President Assad, 40, finds himself navigating 12 treacherous 13 political waters.  His government is accused of, at least, some involvement in the February 14 car bomb in Beirut that killed former Lebanese President Rafik Hariri. The assassination 14 sparked widespread protest in Lebanon, forcing a withdrawal 15 of Syrian troops and intelligence agents from that country. On Thursday, Mr. Assad grudgingly 16 promised to cooperate with the U.N. investigation 17, led by German prosecutor 18 Detlev Mehlis, in the face of a Security Council resolution and threats of greater international condemnation 19, if Damascus did not cooperate.

U.S. State Department spokesman Sean McCormack said recently that the United Nations is solidly behind efforts to force Syria to cooperate.

Mr. McCormack: The use of threat, intimidation 20, violence or terror is something that the international community will not tolerate. And we think that this resolution is an appropriate mechanism 21 to make that very clear to the Syrian government. And also, we hope to compel Syrian cooperation, which has not been to this point forthcoming, to compel Syrian cooperation with the Mehlis investigation, which is ongoing 23.

But speaking at the Middle East Institute, investigative journalist Seymour Hersh warned against any rush to judgment 24 of Syria, saying the United States has an agenda in the region.

Seymour Hersh: I'm exceedingly skeptical 25, and I have been all along, of the point of view of what happened to Hariri. The American point of view is that it was Syria with the aid of some people in Lebanon. Despite all the back and forth 22 about how the American press corps 26 was totally manipulated, to its embarrassment 27, about WMD, I would still argue, we're still being totally manipulated by this administration about Syria and Lebanese involvement."

Before he died, the late President Hafez al-Assad was in something of a competition with now-ousted Iraqi President Saddam Hussein for leadership in the Arab world. He backed Iran in its war with Iraq, and joined the U.S.-led coalition 28 to expel Iraq from Kuwait in 1990. 

Mr. Melhem: He [Hafez] was the only man in the region who could have good, warm relationship with the Saudis, and good, warm - well, not warm, but good, practical marriage of convenience with the Iranians. Only Hafez could pull something like this. Now, under Bashar, this veneer 29 of Sunni Arab nationalist regime began to disappear. In its place, we saw the rise of a crude dynastic rule. It's all about the family. It's a family affair.

Mr. Melhem said the elder Assad could manage a balancing act that his son could not emulate 30.

Bashar al-Assad has been pointedly 31 against the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq. The United States has repeatedly complained about cross-border infiltration 32 from Syria into Iraq by insurgents 33.

Theodore Kattouf, president of America-Mideast Training Services (AMIDEAST), says Bashar al-Assad has no doubt made mistakes. But he says, the United States has made some missteps with Syria, as well, especially right after the defeat of Saddam Hussein.

Theodore Kattouf: Right after the war, we should have told Syria, 'you've screwed up terribly. You've not just angered the administration, you've angered the American public, you've angered the media, Congress. And you need to make amends 34, and here are some things you could do concerning Iraq, and you need to do them quickly. And if you do them, then we can get into a dialogue.' But we didn't do that. And the regime in Syria has continued to show that it has a lot of ignorance of how its actions play out on the world stage, and it's paying a high price for that.

Analysts 35 say it is not clear just how much power Bashar al-Assad actually wields 36 in the murky 37 backwaters of Syrian power politics.

注释：

premature [7premE5tjuE] adj. 过早的，未成熟的

Damascus [dE5mAskEs] n. 大马士革

groom 7 [^rum] vt. 培养，推荐

bequeath [bi5kwi:T] vt. 遗留，把……传下去

realm [relm] n. 王国，领域

pitfall 10 [5pitfC:l] n. 缺陷，陷阱

ophthalmologist [7CfWAl5mClEdVist] n. 眼科专家

intimidation [in7timi5deiFEn] n. 胁迫

exceedingly [ik5si:diNli] adv. 非常地，极度地

embarrassment [im5bArEsmEnt] n. 困窘，阻碍

emulate [5emjuleit] n. 仿效

infiltration [7infil5treiFEn] n. 渗透

misstep [5mis5step] n. 错误

murky [5mE:ki] adj. 黑暗的