VOA常速英语2014--Experts Ponder Costs Of Climate Change 专家思考气候变化带来的成本

Experts Ponder Costs Of Climate Change 专家思考气候变化带来的成本

Climate change is making it harder than usual for scientists to figure out what the future will bring and what impact weather changes will have on society and the economy.  An upsurge of severe weather events has already destroyed homes, businesses and lives. Some fairly simple changes may reduce the toll 1.

In a laboratory test, a house built with conventional techniques is falling apart in hurricane-force winds. 

在实验室试验中，一座用常规技术建造的房子在飓风中倒塌。

The survivor 2 has stronger shingles 3, thicker roof boards, and metal straps 4 holding floors together.

幸存的房子有更强大的瓦板、厚厚的屋顶板和将地板聚合在一起的金属条。

Wind tunnel tests were done by the Insurance Institute for Business & Home Safety.  It says stronger construction costs a little more, but holds up much better to extreme weather.   

这些风洞测试是由商业和家庭安全保险协会实施的，该协会称尽管结实的建筑物成本更高，但却能更好地应对极端天气。

The growing number of unusually strong storms, like Typhoon Haiyan, has convinced the Chairman of the U. S. Senate Homeland Security Committee, Tom Carper, that extreme weather is the “new norm.”

越来越多的强风暴，比如台风海燕，使得美国参议院国土安全委员会主席汤姆·卡帕深信极端天气已是“新的常态”。

"Extreme weather events have increased in frequency over the past 50 years and are expected to become even more common, more intense, and more costly," said Carper.

“过去50年间极端天气越发频繁，以后会更常见、强度更大、带来的损失更大。”

Hurricane Sandy hit beachfront businesses along the U.S. East Coast, including Carper's home state.   Insurance companies had to pay out huge claims.  To limit such losses, the insurance industry can raise premiums 5 for businesses in vulnerable locations and offer discounts to clients who make their buildings more resilient with upgraded construction techniques.

飓风桑迪袭击了美国东海岸的海滨企业，包括卡帕的家乡。保险公司只得支付天价的索赔，为了限制损失，保险业可以提高易受损地区的企业保险费，向那些使用先进建筑技术建造更结实房屋的客户提供折扣。

Managing risks is the job of insurance brokers 6 like Kevin Connelly of the Graham Company, who spoke 7 to VOA via Skype.

风险管理是格雷厄姆公司凯文·康奈利等保险经纪人的工作，他通过Skype向美国之音说。

“We are either going to price your insurance at a huge markup 8, or we are not going to write (sell it) it at all, which is just as bad obviously," said Connelly.

“我们或者提高保险费，或者根本不承接保险，因为承接的话会很糟糕。”

Drought is another suspected consequence of climate change, and dry ground means more wildfires in California.  Current mathematical models of climate change do a poor job of predicting the economic impact of drought and other weather events, says Massachusetts Institute of Technology Professor Robert Pindyck, who spoke via Skype.   

干旱是气候变革可能导致的另一后果，干旱的地面意味着加州会出现更多野火。现有的气候变化数学模型在预测干旱等天气的经济影响方面做得不好，麻省理工学院教授平狄克通过Skype说。

“I think all we can do, taking all of that into account, is come up with some very rough numbers, very rough estimates, "said Pindyck. "Consensus 9 estimates that maybe experts provide, that give us a view of what would the catastrophic outcome look like if we don’t do anything?”

“我想考虑到所有情况，我们所能做的就是进行非常粗略的估计，专家可能提供的这种估计让我们明白如果我们什么都不做带来的灾难性后果。”

To help deal with this serious problem, Pindyck says policymakers should take actions such as imposing 10 a tax on carbon dioxide emissions 11.  A carbon tax would encourage companies and families to use less energy and generate fewer of the gases thought to be driving changes in the climate.  But other analysts 12 say it is unlikely a new tax will get approval in the U.S. Congress any time soon.

为帮助解决这种严重问题，平狄克说政策制定者应该采取行动，比如向二氧化碳排放征税。碳税会鼓励公司和家庭减少能源使用，这样所产生的能改变气候的气体就会减少。但也有分析家称美国国会不大可能很快批准这样的新税。